AFTER THE MARKET OPEN

• Market is up a fraction but as you can see more stocks are up than down. It’s just that those that are down are either pretty big companies or they’re down a lot.

• This is how the stocks that reported today are faring. I didn’t get to Seek (ASX:SEK) pre-market but I’m not surprised to see they have disappointed the market. Have to say most of those look about right to me. Well done to Challenger (ASX:CGF) who are definitely in an upgrade cycle right now. Apparently the Temple and Webster (ASX:TPW) numbers were a beat so that coupled with their outlook should assure them of a good day.

Ansarada (ASX:AND)

• This one hurts:

• Great little company that I held only until recently. I sold because I felt their quarterly update was a little weaker than I had hoped and I felt there were better opportunities. I always thought this was serious takeover candidate. We’ve seen many small tech companies quietly get taken over by US companies attracted by the currency differential. I’m not only disappointed because the shares have popped 15% today, but also because we keep losing good companies from the ASX. Shareholders in Ansarada (ASX:AND) have weathered the bad times to get to the point where the company is now profitable only to have it snapped away from them.

BEFORE THE MARKET OPEN

• Mixed night in the US with the Dow up and the Nasdaq down. The area of interest though was in the Russell 3000 – the US small cap index which had another strong night.

• That’s three strong sessions in a row on a chart that is developing nicely. While the headline indices are at highs, the rally hasn’t flowed through to all parts of the market. Many small caps in Australia are down well over 50% from their highs. The improvement in the Russell is good for our small caps and good for the market overall as it suggests that the current rally is becoming more broad-based rather than just being concentrated in the biggest stocks on the market.

• ASX Futures are up 20 points pointing towards a positive start for our market.
• Reporting season continues in Australia so that’s where my focus firmly lies for the rest of February.

Seven West Media (ASX:SVW)

• Results are out. They’re usually not great. Let’s see …

• Yep true to form. Hard industry to make money. I’m not saying they won’t rise today though. Who knows what the market was expecting? But my philosophy is simple: do you want to own a business where all headline metrics are in decline? Maybe you would. Maybe you subscribe to the value investing mentality. Perhaps there is value here. Would Warren Buffet buy it? Maybe. If you have a plan and a history of making money from stocks like this then more power to you. Not for me though. I have a plan and that plan is to identify the fastest growing companies on the market and own them for as long as possible. I understand it takes a lot of people to make a market though so each to their own.

James Hardie (ASX:JHX)

https://www.jameshardie.com.au/

•  I assume these results will be much better.

• Mmm, they’re ok. The shares have been going very well so I do wonder if the market was expecting more?

Temple and Webster (ASX:TPW)

• I’m interested to see these results. I don’t own and am unlikely to but nevertheless they’re more my type of company. Again, another company that’s been going great so they’d better be good.

• Again, my gut says I would want these to be higher if I was a shareholder that’s seen the shares rise from $3 in July 2023 to over $10 today.

• Growth of 35% is more like it. That might get them out of jail today.

Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG)

• The stock that can do no wrong has their results. I’ve often described them as a “Black Box” company with the commodities trading division etc. I’ll see if I can make head or tail of their results but it always seems to me that they can report anything and the market will just continue to keep the faith.

• I don’t know about you but that reads terribly to me. I thought the same of their last report yet the shares have managed to rally recently from $156 to $188 today. Surely they can’t rally on the back of that announcement? I guess it really depends what the market has been expecting. I know I wasn’t expecting much so maybe they’ve delivered a bit more than that?

• Make your own judgements. I’m hunting for something to potentially trade or that will qualify for my model portfolio. I’m not going to bother with looking at Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG) numbers now as they’re clearly not great and I only have 20 minutes before the market opens to find something good.

Breville (ASX:BRG)

• A quality company with results today. I expect they will be ok but the retail space is particularly tricky here. We’ve seen ASX:JBH and ASX:NCK report falling profits only to see their shares soar in anticipation the worst is over. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. I’m not that interested in investing in maybes.

• Good company, good result in a tricky retail environment. I always like to see companies reducing their debt. Not enough growth to get me excited but I can understand the appeal of this company for a more conservative, diversified portfolio.

Challenger (ASX:CGF)

• Another black box company. These results could be anything. Stock has been going well so the market is expecting big things from you Challenger!

• Numbers look pretty good but as I keep saying I don’t know what the market was expecting. They say they expect to finish in the top half of guidance so that’s not a negative – unless the market was expecting an upgrade which is possible but I think unlikely.

CSL (ASX:CSL)

•  Again too big and slow for me but I am interested to see their numbers. They’ve rallied hard into this result which I have felt has increased the risk for disappointment. Let’s see …

• Not bad. I suspect these numbers will be good enough but again I’m only skimming these.
• Back to Macquarie for a minute. Just saw this on the Fin Review. This could hurt them more than their results as Nick is highly regarded and has been responsibly for some massive results for ASX:MQG.

• Not looking like I will find a trade today. ASX:TPW probably the pick of the bunch.

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Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Tuesday 13/2/24