Author: Nathan

Quarterly Updates 29/4/24

Quarterly Updates 29/4/24 – April is a month when companies that are required to release quarterly updates do so. Let’s have a look a few.

1:30PM Update

Quarterly Updates 29/4/24 - afternoon watchlist

This is how the stocks covered this morning are performing this afternoon. Have to say, there’s no surprises there at all. Megaport (ASX:MP1) shot higher at the open as most companies will do when they release an announcement titled “FY24 EBITDA Guidance Upgrade”. I think they lose a bit of credibility for that one. All they really did was narrow the range to the top of the previous guidance. The market saw through that one. Nevertheless, they remain one of the fastest growing companies on the market for now.

Brainchip Holdings (ASX:BRN)

https://brainchip.com/

Quarterly Updates 29/4/24 - Brainchip quarterly operating cash-flow report

Still virtually no revenues and another $4.3M out the door.

Brainchip cash balance and estimated quarters of cash until needing more

At this rate of cash burn, they will need a capital raise soon.

A quick check reveals they are 45th on the most shorted ASX stocks list at 3.9%. I’m guessing a bit chunk of those shorts are betting Brainchip (ASX:BRN) will need to ask the market for money soon.

Bowen Coking Coal (ASX:BCB)

https://www.bowencokingcoal.com.au/

Quarterly Updates 29/4/24 - Bowen Coking Coal quarterly operating cash-flow report

With coking coal prices at elevated levels, it makes you wonder what it will take for this little miner to be profitable.

Bowen coking coal outstanding loans

Bowen coking coal cash balance and estimated quarters it can survive before needing more

Companies with low cash, negative operating cash-flows and a large debt balance are stocks I tend to put on the “critical list”. This appears to be a highly challenged company.

Quarterly Updates 29/4/24 - Bowen coking coal ceo statement

All sounds good though if you just go by this.

Medical Developments (ASX:MVP)

https://medicaldev.com/

Slowing sales this quarter and rising losses are not a good combination. Still need a lot more sales to cover those losses if they company isn’t prepared to cut costs.

No debt unlike ASX:BCB so not as critical. Nevertheless, it’s almost certain this company will need to raise more capital from long suffering shareholders.

Nothing to see here? Everything on track? Operating cashflows improving? Please remain calm while I reach behind your back and take your wallet!

Megaport (ASX:MP1)

https://www.megaport.com/

Quarterly Updates 29/4/24 - Megaport 3Q FY24 Highlights

No quarterly cashflow report for MP1 sadly, just an update. Reads well.

Megaport (ASX:MP1) quarterly EBITDA performance

Could argue things are slowing down though.

Meagport (ASX:MP1) 3Q FY24 revenue-generating KPIs

Does this further support that argument? 12% growth in main revenue generating metric is good but is it good enough for a high multiple company like this one?

Megaport (ASX:MP1) outlook and guidance

An earnings upgrade always helps though, albeit it’s quite miniscule. That revenue guidance actually looks like slight downgrade – at least compared to the broker numbers which were sitting at $196M. Swings and roundabouts? Pre-market suggests the share will rise. A strong night for the NASDAQ on Friday night won’t hurt either.

SiteMinder (ASX:SDR)

https://www.siteminder.com/

It’s easier to just show their numbers compared to previous quarters straight from my database.

Siteminder (ASX:SDR) recent quarterly revenues

Siteminder (ASX:SDR) recent operating cash flows

Revenues up a bit and operating cashflows doing exactly what you’d want to see.

Quarterly Updates 29/4/24 - SiteMinder (ASX:SDR) guidance on growth and profitability

It’s nice when the commentary matches the numbers.

 

 

Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Quarterly Updates 29/4/24

Quarterly Updates 26/4/24

Quarterly Updates 26/4/24- April is a month when companies that are required to release quarterly updates do so. Let’s have a look a few.

As at 3:20pm, this is how the companies mentioned below have performed.

Quarterly Updates 26/4/24 watchlist of stocks mentioned today

archTIS (ASX:AR9)

https://www.archtis.com/

archTIS (ASX:AR9) quarterly cash flow report

When losses are almost the same as revenues that signals that this company is still some way off being a legitimate opportunity.

Revenues that are not at least 1/3 of the total for 9 months that is another red flag.

archTIS (ASX:AR9) current cash on hand

When cash on hand barely covers losses (say at least less than 4x losses) that is another red flag. This company will almost need to do a capital raise in the next few months.

Quarterly Updates 26/4/24 - AR9 dashboard and chart

The dashboard shows a mixed bag.

Bannerman Energy (ASX:BMN)

https://bannermanenergy.com/

Bannerman Energy (ASX:BMN) quarterly cash flow report

Not a stock I track but one I keep an eye one. Uranium play but still clearly just digging around in the dirt at this stage. No revenues and not enough expenditure to suggest they’re building a mine.

A quick check suggests first revenues won’t be until 2027.

Resmed (ASX:RMD)

https://shop.resmed.com.au/

Resmed (ASX:RMD) third quarter highlights

Resmed (ASX:RMD) financial results

Strong numbers from Resmed (ASX:RMD) but of course it always depends on what the market was expecting.

Resmed (ASX:RMD) news headlines

The stock is up 9.05% in after-market trade in the US. I guess that answers that question!

Quarterly Updates 26/4/24 - RMD fundamentals dashboard and price chart

Dashboard tells the story of a company moving in the right direction albeit slowly. Brokers suggest there is some value here. I can only imagine the brokers will increase their targets further after today’s result.

Vulcan Energy Resources (ASX:VUL)

https://v-er.eu/

Vulcan Energy Resources (ASX:VUL) quarterly cash-flow report

A one much hyped European Lithium stock still seems some way off from producing anything.

Vulcan Energy Resources (ASX:VUL) current cash on hand

They’re expected to start producing in 2026. Might be good timing as perhaps the lithium price will be on climb again by then. Hard to imagine though as there will be plenty more supply coming on stream around that time.

Quarterly Updates 26/4/24 - VUL fundamentals dash and price chart

Improved sentiment around Lithium stocks sees Vulcan Resources (ASX:VUL) having a pretty good year. After a period of consolidation the stock has started moving higher. For the technical traders out there, this isn’t a bad looking chart.

Another interesting fact is that this company is currently ranked #21 on the ASX most shorted stock list.

Some other things quickly catching my eye

Quarterly Updates 26/4/24 NASDAQ:MSFT closing price and post market price

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) announced their results after the market closed. They’ve been received well and the stock is up.

Quarterly Updates 26/4/24 NASDAQ:GOOG closing price and post market price

Even better for Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG).

Quarterly Updates 26/4/24 NASDAQ:NVDA closing price and post market price

Nvidia had a strong night in a weak market. They are up further this morning buoyed no doubt by the Microsoft and Alphabet results.

 

Quarterly Updates 26/4/24

Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Current state of the market April 2024

Let’s have a look at the current state of the market – April 2024.

Current state of the market – April 2024: 10 Year Bond Yields, NASDAQ, S&P500 and the ASX200

Current state of the market April 2024 - 10 YEAR BOND YIELDS
There is only one real right story right now and that is the Bond market. The bond market is a major influence on the stock market because it is essentially the foundation input for valuing stocks. Bond yields have been rising since the start of the year. The stock market has tried to ignore that until the start of this month when the NASDAQ started falling.
Current state of the market April 2024 - NASDAQ 100
Incidentally, it started falling before the S&P 500. The Dow Jones started falling after that. I would argue the DOW is now irrelevant as an index.
Current state of the market April 2024 - S&P 500
The US had expectations for a number of rate cuts this year based on inflation collapsing. This was the thesis for the stock market rise. The bond market wasn’t buying it though. This is the main reason for the divergence (that and the fact that the Nvidia result was incredible providing a lot of positive sentiment). Recent data suggests the bond market was right and the market was wrong – the last 1%-2% of inflation is proving difficult to shift. Expectations are now adjusting, and we are seeing this play out in the stock market.

The S&P/ASX 200 index experienced a heavy sell-off on Friday. Interestingly it did stage a substantial bounce in the afternoon off the 144 day moving average at ~7500 points. Despite falls in the US on Friday night, the futures market is suggesting we will open 27 points higher on Monday morning. Should the market continue to be hit with selling, the 7400 level could come into play.

Current state of the market April 2024 - S&P/ASX 200

That is where we are today.

Where do we go from here?

I don’t tend to play the forecasting game but I think a collapse isn’t likely at this stage and it’s more a rebasing of expectations for what happens next with inflation and hence bond yields. The Israel situation doesn’t help. The risk of oil disruptions can be seen in an increasing oil price which is inflationary. Bond yields have risen quite steeply this year though and there’s always a risk that will “break” something in the banking sector. That would increase the chance of a collapse greatly.
The positive sentiment has gone for now and the focus is clearly back on inflation. Anything positive in that regard should provide the market with some welcome relief from these falls. The inverse would be true. In combination with moderating inflation, Nvidia could once again provide the spark. It has a history of beating estimates and if it can do so again we could be off to the races once-more. We’ll have to wait until May 23rd for that possibility though.
NASDAQ:NVDA Earnings actuals vs estimates
Current state of the market – April 2024
Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Positive Update: 360, RED & SLR

Today we have a positive update from two model stocks to run the ruler over: Life360 (ASX:360) and Red 5 (ASX:RED). We also have the soon to be merged with Red 5, Silverlake Resources (ASX:SLR) providing an update.

Positive Update: Life360 (ASX:360)

Positive Update: Life360 (ASX:360)

https://www.life360.com/intl/

Life360 (ASX:360) dashboard

Positive Update: Red 5 (ASX:RED)

Positive Update: Red 5 (ASX:RED)

https://www.red5limited.com/site/content/

Red 5 (ASX:RED) dashboard

Silverlake Resources (ASX:SLR)

Silverlake Resources (ASX:SLR) are merging with Red 5 (ASX:RED) so their update this morning is relevant.

Positive Update: Silverlake Resources (ASX:SLR)

https://www.silverlakeresources.com.au/

Silverlake Resource (ASX:SLR) dashboard

 

As April rolls on, we can expect to receive a few more updates from stocks in the model portfolio.

 

Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.