Tue Feb 27, 2024 ASX earnings & outlook observations along with a look at broader market movements. ASX:DGL, ASX:PNV, ASX:JLG, ASX:PSQ, ASX:PLY and ASX:TYR and are featured at today.

…. last update 11.47am

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ASX AFTER THE OPEN

 

DGL Group (ASX:DGL)

https://www.dglgroup.com/

I’m unsure whether I should waste my time looking at this result. I am somewhat curious though.

Doesn’t sound amazing but doesn’t sound like it should be down 42%!

I’ll quickly run the numbers and see if there is anything lurking down below.

Ok I won’t bother posting graphs. This issue with this company, as I see it is … debt. They have $138.5M in borrowings. They only have $21M in cash. At today’s price the market cap of the company is only $171M. I’d say the market is getting worried that the company may need to do a rather substantial and dilutive capital raising to bring this back into balance.

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Polynovo (ASX:PNV)

https://au.polynovo.com/

Just out is Polynovo (ASX:PNV) result.

Strange comment.

Presentation out after the first pause in trade. Another odd way to handle it.

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Some very big moves today on the back of announcements. Let’s look at a couple of the fallers.

Johns Ling Group ASX:JLG

Curious they fell so much on an upgrade!

Will have to go digging deeper. Not the first stock to fall this reporting period on an upgrade. ASX:AUB did it then bounced the next day but remains lower today.

I think for now I’ll skip the presentation and just go straight to the financials because the numbers often tell their own story – the real one!

Ok I see a number of issues that you wouldn’t have suspected from reading that headline. Revenue, earnings and cash-flows are all down on the same period last-year.

 

Now maybe this is no big deal. Maybe they’re anticipating a big 2nd-half. I’m not going to read further to find out. What I will say is this. ASX:JLG has a PER of roughly 45 based on 2023 earnings. That’s very high. However, it’s enormous if the company is not growing. I like ASX:JLG. I think they’re in the right spot at the right time. However, over the past few years, every man and his dog has felt the same pushing the value of the company well beyond fair value. Today is the day that all of those people get a serious wake-up call.

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Playside Studios (ASX:PLY)

https://www.playsidestudios.com/

This is always an interesting situation. Founders are selling down shares in ASX:PLY. 10% of the company is a significant amount. To do so they have to sell at at discount. The shares will 100% of the time drop on this announcement because some of those that were lucky enough to buy the shares at 75c will attempt to take a quick profit. The share price opened at 81c so some certainly succeeded. It’s the nature of the game. The price was driven down to 72.5c. The shares are back to 75c which is what you would expect.

But is this announcement a positive or a negative for the company?

Some would say it’s negative as the founders are selling so they must think it’s a good time to get out. But on the other hand, they still own 50% of the company. You would think that for most of them that is still the bulk of their net worth so I would argue against that proposition.

ASX:PLY had a market cap of $335M before today. That sees them as the 560th biggest company on our market. They would be in some small cap and tech indices. Too small obviously for the ASX:300 just yet. However, weightings are not decided by market cap but by free float value. Director holdings are not considered part of the free-float. This will lift the weighting of the company in these indices. It gets them closer to being added to other indices. Indices are important for a number of reasons. It’s when institutions take an interest. More analysts will cover the stock. More people will become interested in the story.

In order for ASX:PLY to continue to grow and be recognised, more of it’s shares need to be available to trade. While the shares are down today and 75c will probably remain a resistance point until those looking for a quick profit can exit, the announcement can only be seen as an important step on the journey for a small cap to have any chance of one-day becoming an index recognised big-cap.

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ASX PRE-MARKET

A quiet session in the US overnight sees our market set to open around 4 points lower.

The remain theme for our market remains earnings reports. This is today’s list so far (as at 9.16am)

Adelaide Brighton (ASX:ABC) is on the list because they are yet another building materials company that has received a takeover offer. That’s the third with Boral (ASX:BLD) and CSR (ASX:CSR) also currently sitting with bids. With the Australian dollar so low, ASX companies are sitting ducks and are getting picked off it feels at around 1 or 2 per day.

Prospa (ASX:PGL) is another company that has signed a scheme today I see.

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Tyro (ASX:TYR)

https://www.tyro.com/

Ok first result I want to look at is Tyro (ASX:TYR). This company is interesting to me as I had some contact with them when I owned my small business. The point of sale system I used later offered an integration with Tyro. I though it was a clever way for them to gain market share. I know many businesses operating in the industry I was in (Health Foods) using the same POS (Point of sale ie cash register) as me took up the offer.

Recently though, that strategy has worked against Tyro. They had a similar partnership with a company called Lightspeed who’s POS is popular in the hospitality industry. Lightspeed decided they would offer their own payments and and clients that continued to use Tyro would be penalised. Tyro recently won a court case against the parent company of Lightspeed with a cease and desist order but I question if the compensation really covered the damage to the Tyro business. As for the cease and desist, from what I can tell, the damage was already done.

I don’t know if this result is good or bad but 2.2% growth in transactions doesn’t seem like much and I feel like the issue I outlined above could still be playing out negatively for ASX:TYR.

No growth at the top-line but importantly EBITDA is expected to continue to improve. The adjusting for share based payments really annoys me but that’s for another day.

ASX:TYR looks set to rise at the open from what I can see. I guess the market likes the improving EBITDA more than then lack of top-line growth.

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Pacific Smiles (ASX:PSQ)

https://pacificsmilesgroup.com.au/

Next stock of interest to me is Pacific Smiles (ASX:PSQ). It’s a recovery story. Let’s see if they’re still improving.

Everything seems to be moving in the right direction albeit unspectacularly. They’ve also had some private equity sniffing around at the $1.40 level. Be interesting to see if this result can push them beyond that price and if it will get the PE to bite.

Outlook looks good, albeit roughly in line with what the market was expecting.

 

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Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Tue Feb 27, 2024: ASX:DGL, ASX:PNV, ASX:JLG, ASX:PSQ, ASX:PLY, ASX:TYR

ASX reporting season continues. Today I’ll take a look at AI Media (ASX:AIM), Mayne Pharma (ASX:MYX), Kogan (ASX:KGN), Adore Beauty (ASX:ABY), Adairs (ASX:ADH) and IPD Group (ASX:IPG).

 

ASX AFTER THE OPEN

Let’s have a look at some of the reporting winners today.

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AI Media (ASX:AIM)

https://www.ai-media.tv/

Let’s look at AI Media (ASX:AIM). This stock has looked to me for a while like it’s been flying under the radar.

Positive outlook but with no numbers. Worth a closer look.

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Mayne Pharma (ASX:MYX)

https://www.maynepharma.com/

Ok, the next stock I’m interested in is Mayne Pharma (ASX:MYX). Another stock where the share price had a great year last-year.

I would summarise that as “still nowhere near profitable but rapidly improving”. I’m not sure why this company finds it so hard to make money. It’s numbers always look quite messy with lot’s of adjustments and variance between reported and underlying numbers. Nevertheless the market likes it and I suggest that is attributed mainly to the rate at which it is growing revenues rather than the rate at which it is losing money.

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Kogan (ASX:KGN)

https://www.kogan.com/au/

Let’s see what all the fuss is about with Kogan (ASX:KGN).

Huge numbers as this company turns things around. The most eye-catching number for me is the Gross Margin improvement. I think this company has realised post-Covid that the easier and more profitable money lies in providing a platform for others to sell their goods rather than having to hold stock and sell your own goods.

No numbers provided in outlook however January looks to have been another strong month for them.

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Adore Beauty (ASX:ABY)

https://www.adorebeauty.com.au/

Next stock of interest is Adore Beauty (ASX:ABY).

Operating cash flow positive and cash on hand increasing is always attractive.

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Adairs (ASX:ADH)

https://www.adairs.com.au/

Surprised to see Adairs (ASX:ADH) doing well today, let’s see why.

First thing I’ll check (bit cheeky) is the short positions.

Nothing substantial there so probably safe to say a short-squeeze isn’t contributing much to the today’s performance.

Let’s look at the result summary.

A mixed bag as you would expect as they continue to try and dig themselves out of a hole. The resumption of dividends I suspect is a positive surprise to the market. Fixing Mocka would also be seen favourably. Overall it reads ok as a recovery story.

While PBT is down on the corresponding period, it’s actually up compared to the previous half. A small victory but an important one since it’s been a while since they’ve see an uptick.

Cash flows from operating were strong this half. Never a bad thing!

This stock requires a different lens through which to view its results. I’m always hunting for growth. There’s none of that here. The question is though, if it can continue to turn itself around, is there any value here?

Falling revenues and falling earnings. However, it was once a pretty good performer. I suspect there will be some slight earnings estimate upgrades after this result as the market was pretty negative on them. As for value. that’s a very subjective matter. This is how it sits according to my model.

Probably doesn’t look as cheap as I thought it would.

It must be noted that ASX:ADH has been on the move for a while now. The smart money saw the value back in November.

Buy, Hold, Sell? I’m not allowed to say but for me it’s none of those or is that not possible?

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ASX PRE-MARKET

US leads suggest our market will rise 4 points at the open.

Lot’s of company reports continue to be released today. Let’s have a look at a few.

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IPD Group (ASX:IPG)

https://ipdgroup.com.au/

First up, IPD Group (ASX:IPG). The stock price has been flying, let’s see if it’s justified.

No numbers in the outlook is always disappointing.

 

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Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Monday 26/2/24

Many company reports are expected to update the market today. This coincides with Nvidia (NVDA) reporting their earnings after the close in the US (this morning our time). I suspect it will be a wild day. Stocks looked at: ASX:AIA, ASX:VEE, ASX:PLY, ASX:QAN, ASX:SLC and ASX:GNG.

Auckland International Airport (ASX:AIA)

https://www.aucklandairport.co.nz/

Results are the first ones I will look at today.

Seems ok. Lift in capex a slight negative. Huge improvement on the year prior as the travel industry continues to recover from Covid-19.

CSR (ASX:CSR)

https://www.csr.com.au/

Sadly, it looks like we’re going to lose another company from the ASX with CSR (ASX:CSR) receiving a takeover offer.

MRM Offshore (ASX:MRM)

https://www.mmaoffshore.com/

The next stock of interest today. They’ve been a great performer for a couple of years now. Can it continue?

 

Sounds to me like that outlook for the 2nd half is a bit under what the analysts were expecting but it really is hard to predict.

Nvidia (NVDA)

https://www.nvidia.com/en-au/

The result looks to be a beat and the market likes it. It just crossed $710. (+5.3%) in the after market. This will provide a lot of support for our tech sector today.

Veem (ASX:VEE)

https://veem.com.au/

This is the next stock I want to look. Interestingly, another ship related company.

 

Haha, the outlook is the same as ASX:MRM.

Great numbers and profit and revenue of a similar amount in the 2nd half looks to be slightly above what the market was expecting.

Playside (ASX:PLY)

https://www.playsidestudios.com/

Is the next one I want to have a look at. Wow so many today!

Incredible half for the company. Some might say company defining?

There’s no change in that guidance to what they had guided previoulsy.

Let’s keep moving.

Qantas (ASX:QAN)

https://www.qantas.com/au/en.html

Let’s have a look for some more clues into the health of the broader travel sector.

I’m a bit shocked by these numbers but that’s without having any idea what the market was expecting. I don’t follow ASX:QAN closely.

Ok I don’t want to spend any more time on ASX:QAN. Demand is strong but fares have fallen faster than the market thought … perhaps.

Superloop (ASX:SLC)

https://www.superloop.com/

Let’s have a quick, I think they were expected to report well.

Strong numbers but still a long way from being profitable. Cash flow positive though so I’m guessing the Net loss is due to depreciation. Teleco’s always have a lot of initial costs.

Growth looks like it’s set to continue for ASX:SLC.

GR Engineering Services (ASX:GNG)

https://www.gres.com.au/

Has been going well for a while. Let’s see their result.

 

Not a lot of details here and I’m not interested enough nor have the time to dig deeper. What stands out is how low that EBITDA margin was in HY23 and how inconsistent it is. I’m sure there are reasons for that but it just makes it look a bit of messy company.

 

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Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Many company reports: ASX:AIA, ASX:VEE, ASX:PLY, ASX:QAN, ASX:SLC and ASX:GNG.

ASX Update 21/02/24 – Pre Market Observations

The US had a weak night overnight.

At 7:55am, the futures are suggesting the our market will open down 24 points,

Uranium stocks took a sharp fall overnight. This was the only significant move in the commodities I track.

Today will be another huge day for company reports on the ASX. Here is today’s list but I’m sure there will be plenty more.

Ebos Group (ASX:EBO)

Let’s start with these guys. Usually a solid performer.

Continues to be solid but not spectacular.

Corporate Travel Group ASX:CTD

Oh oh! They’ve released a Profit Guidance announcement to go with their results. Ok, so talk about mixed messages. I take the overall message to be negative sadly.

Positive:

Positive:

More negative than positive:

Back to Positive:

Very negative:

A curious result to say the least or at least a curious explanation. ASX:CTD will fall today, how much is anyone’s guess at this stage. I think management, who have always had a great reputation, will take a serious hit as a result of they way this result has been handled. ASX:CTD is a model stock that has been a winner for some time. However, it will fall out of the model today.

Mount Gibson (ASX:MGX)

They release quarterly results so their shouldn’t be any major surprises in this result.

As suspected, nothing new there. More than half of this company’s market cap is cash at the moment and it increased that cash by $196M in the half! Cheap much?

Let’s keep moving.

Helloworld (ASX:HLO)

Results are out. Let’s see how they’re tracking in light of the ASX:CTD result.

Doesn’t seem to be any sting in the tail there.

Wisetech (ASX:WTC)

These numbers should be strong but it will be more about the outlook with them I think. Last report suggested a weaker outlook due to some investment in the business. Were they just being conservative?

Top line growth looks great. EBITDA growth less as flagged in the previous update.

More positive than the previous guidance which was a downgrade. Looks like things remain firmly on track for them

Codan (ASX:CDA)

Argh. I had written up a post on them but I accidentally closed my browser. Anyway, recovery looks to be on track with another solid half in the books.

Acrow (ASX:ACF)

I almost forgot, I want to have a look this company who reported their results after the market closed last night.

Got to say these guys set themselves some pretty strong forecasts in their last report and I wasn’t sure they could hit them. It appears they have.

One thing to note though is that they have been growing to some degree by acquisition. While the above numbers are impressive, they aren’t quite so on a per share basis as they have been issuing shares along the way.

Nevertheless, they keep doing what they say they’re going to do.

 

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Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

ASX Update 21/02/24

US markets were closed overnight so no leads from there for our market today. . Our futures are pointing to a 2 points gain at the start of trade. It is expected there will be a lot of companies reporting 1HFY24 results today. Here is a list of potential candidates.

Let’s look at some results and see if we can find any really good ones.

AUB Group (ASX:AUB) 1HFY24 Results

https://www.aubgroup.com.au/

First company, AUB Group (ASX:AUB). Rising insurance premiums has seen them in a purple patch for some time now.

No percentages is interesting. Perhaps they want all the attention to be on their guidance upgrade. Nevertheless it looks like a strong result having had a quick look at the financial statements.

Mader Group (ASX:MAD) 1HFY24 Results

https://www.madergroup.com.au/

Next we have Mader Group (ASX:MAD) who updated the market in January (and fell) ahead of these results. The update looked ok but Mader Group (ASX:MAD) has had strong couple of years and perhaps the market just felt it was a bit overdone. Anyway, let’s see if anything has happened between now and January.

That as good a set of numbers as you would want to see. But will the market like it? I’ll check but I’d say they’re the same as they flagged back in January. If so, it will be all about the all important outlook.

Yes they are identical.

They have reaffirmed their guidance so it looks to me like there is absolutely nothing new here since their most recent update.

Megaport (ASX:MP1) 1HFY24 Results

https://www.megaport.com/

Next stock of interest is Megaport (ASX:MP1). This stock soared on the back of it’s quarterly report last month. You would think there wouldn’t be too much new in this report but if there is it could be another wild ride today.

I think all of the above should be known to the market already. Some of those percentages are enormous as the company has recently transitioned from loss-making to profitable.

What really matters today for this company in my view, is their outlook statement.

Guidance restated and results pretty much already known should result in a calm day for Megaport (ASX:MP1) today. But with this company you really never know! It should be noted that they have run hard into this result though. The market may have been hoping for an upgrade. It will be disappointed if that’s the case.

HUB24 (ASX:HUB) 1HFY24 Results

https://www.hub24.com.au/

Ok who should I look at next. HUB24 (ASX:HUB) has been a great performer, let’s have a look at them. I’m pretty sure they updated the market ahead of this so there shouldn’t be any real surprises.

Not the best summary but you get the gist. They’re always battling with Netwealth (ASX:NWL) for top spot in inflows and they’re winning at the moment. Outlook less important (or harder) for companies like this when they’re making money off FUM (Fund under management) and that is at the mercy of the markets.

Netwealth (ASX:NWL) 1HFY24 Results

https://www.netwealth.com.au/web

Incidentally, (ASX:NWL) are also reporting there results today, let’s have a look.

They’re the big dog but I suspect HUB24 (ASX:HUB) is catching them. Truth is though, they’re taking market share away from just about all of those bigger competitors hand over fist. The runway for both of them remains long and if the trend remains, very fruitful.

Bravura (ASX:BVS) 1HFY24 Results

https://www.bravurasolutions.com/australia/

In the pre-market, it looks like Bravura (ASX:BVS) will be the stock of the day (projected to open up 9.4%). Let’s have a look at what they have to say.

I guess that point 5 says it all. A nice big UPGRADE!

 

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Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

AFTER THE OPEN

10:13am

So far the market is loving the The A2 Milk Company (ASX:A2M) numbers and their slight upgrade.

Boral (ASX:BLD) is up a little on their takeover offer as you would expect.

Cochlear (ASX:COH) had already flagged their result to the market prior to today so you wouldn’t expect there to be too many surprises.

Imdex (ASX:IMD) is the star. Having a had a bit more of a read of their announcement, it seems the acquisition they made is doing very well for them. They seem quite optimistic although I didn’t see any numbers in their outlook.

Lend Lease (ASX:LLC) clearly continues to disappoint. How the mighty have fallen.

Nuix (ASX:NXL) delivered pretty much what I they said they would but the ramp up in price prior to results showed the market was expecting more. It’s a volatile stock though so it could finish anywhere today.

Reliance Worldwide Corporation (ASX:RWC) must have put out a good set of numbers. It’s a very up and down kind of stock though.

 

BEFORE THE OPEN

The first thing I do every morning is look at the announcements and put any stocks that look of interest into a watchlist.

Takeover for Boral (ASX:BLD) from Seven Group (ASX:SVW). ASX:BLD has been having a great run of late and now shareholders will get a nice bonus to top of that today.

The A2 Milk Company (ASX:A2M) and ASX:NXL are two stocks there that I’m particularly interested in.

The A2 Milk Company (ASX:A2M) 1HFY24 Results

https://a2milk.com.au/

The A2 Milk Company (ASX:A2M) chart has been in a down trend since the last quarter of 2021. Incredibly it hit $20 at one stage. Recently it has caught my eye as the share price has been trying to stage a rally coming into results. Bets have been placed that this result will a good one.

Drum roll …

Looks like things are moving in the right direction for The A2 Milk Company (ASX:A2M). A slight increase in guidance never hurts. Exciting set of results? Let’s see but they’re certainly not model portfolio sort of numbers.

Nuix (ASX:NXL) 1HFY24 Results

https://www.nuix.com/

Let’s move on to Nuix (ASX:NXL). They disappointed the market back in January with an update on what they expected their results would be today. The shares fell but have since recovered into the official result announced today. They had been going along nicely prior to that.

The Statutory numbers are due to one-off legal expenses. The market will look through those.

The $199.6 ACV is above the top end of guidance given in January of 196-199M.

Outlook is positive while rather vague.

The above numbers aren’t amazing but need to be seen in context. It wasn’t that long ago that this stock was over $10. Being a tech stock, its valuation lags that of many of its peers. From a growth perspective, this stock would have to be considered middle of the road. From a value perspective it may be more attractive. From what I understand about their products, the company has significant potential.

Imdex (ASX:IMD) 1HFY24 Results

https://www.imdexlimited.com/

Imdex (ASX:IMD) is another company with results out today. Looking at the chart the market isn’t too excited about the prospects for this company.

 

These numbers look ok. There’s a big one-off item in there that has hurt their statutory profit.

This shows the importance of looking beyond the headlines. This company has increased their revenues impressively. However on closer inspection, it looks like the may have made an acquisition and the revenues have only increase because of the addition from the new business. That could still be ok but the next step would be to look at if they issued any shares for the acquisition and if they did determine what the increase in revenues are on a per share basis.

All of the numbers in my database reduce the figures provided in the company reports back to a per share basis. It’s the only way to know if a company is increasing value for shareholders or not. Imdex (ASX:IMD) does have a history of issuing shares.

 

 

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Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Monday 19/2/24

Today we have a look at the market after the close and some stocks that experienced significant announcements or moves.

 

Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX:NEU) $19.78 down 14.2%

https://www.neurenpharma.com/

Was a stock that did great for the model portfolio until it’s last quarterly report where it seemed some growth rates were a bit slower than expected and cash flows were meagre. Today they are down due to a short-report on their distribution partner Acadia (NDQ:ACAD). The short report brings into question if the drug Daybue, that Acadia is distributing for Neuren is as good as we’ve all been told. Time will tell but the risks have increased somewhat for Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX:NEU) for the time being.

Model ranking n/a down from 1 after recent quarterly report.

 

Pro Medicus (ASX:PME) $87.24 down 7.2%

https://www.promed.com.au/

The price hit $111.88 on Monday. The stock had had an amazing run into results. From what I can tell, the numbers were a few percent off expectations when the price was suggesting the market was expecting a beat. When I say the result was a few percent down on what the market was hoping, it was still a fantastic result and all the elements that make it a great company remain in tact. Having said that, investors would be nervous because this company still has a crazy valuation and sentiment has played a large part in it achieving that.

My valuation model shows how ahead of itself, Pro Medicus (ASX:PME)  had become. As we can see this also happened back in 2021. It’s falling back to earth and if it could somehow find its way back to $60, history suggests that would be a great entry point.

Blue line – price high for the year | Red line price low for the year | Light green zone – fair value range | Dark green zone – deep value range | White zone – overvalued range

Model Ranking 32 down from 20 after yesterday’s results

 

Data#3 (ASX:DTL) $7.69 down 9.53%

https://www.data3.com/

Similar to Pro Medicus (ASX:PME). Price peaked at $10.01 on Tuesday. For some reason the stock rallied hard into results. It had me scratching my head. The results seemed roughly what the market expected maybe a percent or two shy and the stock has been smashed back down to where it was in November 2023. Steady company but certainly not worth the valuation it had when priced at $10.00.

Model Ranking 104 down from 85 after yesterday’s results Data#3 (ASX:DTL)  has had me scratching my head for a while. The market has clearly been rerating it for a while but by my calculations things got euphoric at $10.

Just for an example, this is my valuation model for the stock Codan (ASX:CDA). As you can see it was extremely hit back in 2021. After that peak it had an almighty fall back to earth. Not saying that will happen with ASX:DTL or especially ASX:PME – but it can happen!

Stocks that reported or had significant events today

 

RPM Global (ASX:RUL)

https://rpmglobal.com/

Results came out after the close last night. Stock plunged at the open and recovered through the day like so many we see during reporting time. There was no issues in the announcement that I could see with them reiterating guidance. Will be interesting to see if it can continue to recover on Monday.

Model Ranking 46 down from 35 after yesterday’s results

 

Inghams Group (ASX:ING)

https://inghams.com.au/

Another solid set of results but a cautious outlook was enough to see Inghams Group (ASX:ING) fold 12.5% today.

Model Ranking 137 down from 96 after today’s results. Could fall further when brokers revise their forward projections.

The market hasn’t been too kind to stocks reporting earnings during the past couple of days. This is in contrast to some great daily gains last week. Let’s hope the mood improves next week.

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Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

A good night again in the US.

Source: https://stocksunderthehood.com/free-resources/us-sector-performance/

ASX should have a strong start with the futures up 72 points.

The oil price is trying to break out from it’s downtrend. Not quite there yet.

RPM Global (ASX:RUL) H1FY24 results

https://rpmglobal.com/

Reported results after the market closed last night. This is usually not a great sign. However, in this case, the results look sound.

Tyro Payments (ASX:TYR) H1FY24 results

https://www.tyro.com/

Have won the battle but will they win the war? I think there is a good chance this $10M payout doesn’t cover the damage that has been done to their business as a result of this issue. My understanding of the story is this. Kounta owns Lightspeed. Lightspeed is a POS system used in the hospitality industry. Tyro offered an integration of their payment system into the Lightspeed POS. Lightspeed have developed their own payments system. They are penalising their customers than remain with Tyro. While they can’t solicit does it stop them from making it uncomfortable for their clients to continue using Tyro? I don’t know. Reality is plenty have already jumped ship from Tyro to the the new Lightspeed payments system.

GQG Partners (ASX:GQG) H1FY24 results

https://gqg.com/

Results are out. Things travelling as you would hope by the looks of things.

Looks like just rewards for market beating performance.

Impossible for fund managers to give forecast earnings and revenues. They’re at the mercy of the markets. From these comments I think it’s safe to say that things are expected to continue to go well for them.

Mad Paws (ASX:MPA) H1FY24 results

https://www.madpaws.com.au/

A tiny company with a share price of 10.5c has had a good results and even more interestingly an investment from Seven West Media (ASX:SWM) at a premium of 12c per share.

 

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Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

BEFORE THE MARKET OPEN

• US markets reversed most of their losses from the previous session.

Source: https://stocksunderthehood.com/free-resources/us-sector-performance/

• The Australian market dropped 56 points yesterday. The Index futures are pointing to a 52 point rise at the open.
• Lithium can be a confusing commodity to follow. There are so many prices out there for the various compounds. There’s industrial grade, battery grade, various purities of carbonate, various grades of hydroxide plus it’s hard to find agreeance on price from one site to the next. I suggest, all you need to follow is the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF.

• At the moment it’s a pretty sad story. That’s as convincing a downtrend as you will find. With very large short positions in the space, there will be sharp rallies like the one in December. Many have been calling a bottom at various points on the way down. They are all pretty much losing at the moment. What will cause it to spring back up? Who knows? What’s more likely at some point is for it to find a floor and go sideways for an extended period of time. I’d be inclined to want to see that before getting interested. Rises after a period of base-forming are far more reliable than attempted rallies from a downtrend.
• One thing that can’t be denied is the strength of Bitcoin. I feel like this is telling the market something but I’m not sure what.

• I’ve never paid a lot of attention to the Crypto space. One observation I will make from looking at this chart is that it seems to trade in a very orderly manner. It jumps to a level, consolidates, jumps, trends for a bit. For purely technical traders, you could do a lot worse than focussing your efforts on Bitcoin.
• Plenty of good stocks reporting today. Not a great day for me to be on the road. Will have to have a closer look at most of these later in the day.
• 

Viva Leisure (ASX:VVA) H1FY24 results

https://vivaleisure.group/

Results were one I was waiting to see.

Nothing to complain about there. Of course it depends on the outlook and what the market is expecting though.

Promedicus (ASX:PME) H1FY24 results

https://www.promed.com.au/

A market darling (understatement of the day) continues to deliver.

No doubt great growth. Incredible company. But think about this. Revenue is $74M. Market Cap: $11.3B. 100 times revenue is still only $7.4B There is no company on our market that comes close to attracting that valuation. Is it the best company on the market? Probably? Is it worth say 5 times more than the 2nd or 3rd best? I’ll let you decide. Currently the market consensus says yes!

Maas (ASX:MGH) H1FY24 results

https://maasgroup.com.au/

Looks like the winner today. As good as those numbers are though they have only reaffirmed guidance in their outlook. These seems conservative but I’m only guessing. Worth a closer look. I will do a breakdown of ASX:MGH later today. Update: Their financials are rather complicated. I will do this in as soon as my data provided updates their number for MGH.

 

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Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Wed Feb 14, 2024: AFTER THE MARKET OPEN

• It’s a red day today. We’ve had a good run and the inflation shock in the US is a good reason for the weaker hands to take some profits today.

• Here’s how the stocks that released results this morning are trading at 10:18Am.

• Poor old ASX:GUD. Numbers looked ok but the outlook is a bit weak. Bad day to announce bad news with the ASX200 down 1.4%.

• I didn’t get to GNC before the open. Weather stock. Weather was exceptional for them now it’s just back to normal.

• ASX:GNC and all the agricultural stocks are highly cyclical and unpredictable. Too hard basket for me. If I were to consider them I’d suggest the best time to buy is during a drought.
• ASX:DHG continues to show that the difference between being the best at what you do (ASX:REA) and the 2nd best is vast.
• ASX:EVN had flagged prior to this result that it’s results would be weaker than the market had thought. If I were to guess, I’d say todays’ results are inline with their update but the price is down due to a fall in the gold price below $2000 USD an ounce. The $2000 level had held for sometime but the fact that it has now been broken will be seen as a negative for gold in the short-term .
• ASX:IEL is the star of the day so far though. Numbers looked good but I’m still yet to find a meaningful outlook from them.

 

Wed Feb 14, 2024: BEFORE THE MARKET OPEN

• Inflation dropped at a pace slower than expected in the US overnight, This has had a significant impact across markets as the expectations for when rate cuts may commence have been pushed out.
• This has seen the 10 year bond yield jump overnight. This is a concerning chart since by my definition it puts it back in an uptrend. (price is above all moving averages).

• Simply put, this makes equities less attractive to bonds / cash in the short-term.
• This has resulted in a sell-off in US Markets overnight like the S&P 500, the DOW and the Nasdaq. Nevertheless, this is just a blip on the Nasdaq chart at this stage.
• A new feature on the site is the ETFs page. Here you can see a range of Australian and US listed ETFs and compare their performance. You can view it here:
• ETF Performance (stocksunderthehood.com)
• This is how the US ETFs I track performed overnight. A very red night.

• H1FY24 results continue to roll on in Australia, Let’s have a look at some of today’s announcements.

 

H1FY24 RESULTS

Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA) 

https://www.commbank.com.au/

Is first cab off the rank. It’s not a stock that interests me so I’ll cheat and see what the Fin Review says:

Doesn’t tell you much. I don’t know what the market was expecting. I do know that ASX:CBA is close to all time highs so a fall in profit doesn’t sound ideal.

AMP (ASX:AMP)

https://www.amp.com.au/

What a dud stock this has been for a very long time. When I first started working my super went into an AMP super fund. I think that was the case for many, many others. What a gift! How did they stuff it up so bad?

The story for ASX:AMP for some time has been that the value of their businesses in more competent hands is greater than what the market values them under AMP’s control. Slowly they’ve been selling off bits and pieces and returning capital to shareholders.

Fletcher Building (ASX:FBU)

https://fletcherbuilding.com/

A perenial underperformer has underdelivered once again sadly.

Charts like this make it easy. Simply move on to the next stock. Think of it like this: just about every person that owns this stock is losing money. It’s a hard cycle to break. Imagine working at that company …

Seven Group Holdings (ASX:SVW)

https://sevengroup.com.au/

Despite their holding in Seven West Media that reported poorly yesterday, continues to deliver good results.

Beamtree (ASX:BMT)

https://beamtree.com.au/

Is an interesting small cap that has often promised a lot but has yet to really deliver. I’m interested to see what this report contains.

Seems ok. Not spectacular but they seem to be executing their plan. As I always say, I’m not sure what the market was expecting but price chart suggests not a lot. I’ll keep watching for now.

GUD Holdings (ASX:GUD)

https://gud.com.au/

Are usually a pretty steady performer that don’t get much market coverage. Let’s see how they’re going.

Steady as she goes continues for ASX:GUD.

IDP Education (ASX:IEL)

https://www.idp.com/australia/

I’m interested to see their report. Leading into this the company numbers look good. Commentary from the company has also been positive yet the share price has been slowly on the slide. Before Covid, this was as much of a market darling as you could find.

• If JBH Hi Fi and Nick Scali can rise on profit falls what can this one do on these numbers? Only joking, of course the result is only half the story (sometime much less). It much more about the outlook. Not sure I can find much of an outlook statement in this report. Not helpful!
• Perhaps the market was focussing on the potential drop in the IELTS. Nevertheless they seem to have been able to cover for that elsewhere.

 

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Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

AFTER THE MARKET OPEN

• Market is up a fraction but as you can see more stocks are up than down. It’s just that those that are down are either pretty big companies or they’re down a lot.

• This is how the stocks that reported today are faring. I didn’t get to Seek (ASX:SEK) pre-market but I’m not surprised to see they have disappointed the market. Have to say most of those look about right to me. Well done to Challenger (ASX:CGF) who are definitely in an upgrade cycle right now. Apparently the Temple and Webster (ASX:TPW) numbers were a beat so that coupled with their outlook should assure them of a good day.

Ansarada (ASX:AND)

• This one hurts:

• Great little company that I held only until recently. I sold because I felt their quarterly update was a little weaker than I had hoped and I felt there were better opportunities. I always thought this was serious takeover candidate. We’ve seen many small tech companies quietly get taken over by US companies attracted by the currency differential. I’m not only disappointed because the shares have popped 15% today, but also because we keep losing good companies from the ASX. Shareholders in Ansarada (ASX:AND) have weathered the bad times to get to the point where the company is now profitable only to have it snapped away from them.

BEFORE THE MARKET OPEN

• Mixed night in the US with the Dow up and the Nasdaq down. The area of interest though was in the Russell 3000 – the US small cap index which had another strong night.

• That’s three strong sessions in a row on a chart that is developing nicely. While the headline indices are at highs, the rally hasn’t flowed through to all parts of the market. Many small caps in Australia are down well over 50% from their highs. The improvement in the Russell is good for our small caps and good for the market overall as it suggests that the current rally is becoming more broad-based rather than just being concentrated in the biggest stocks on the market.

• ASX Futures are up 20 points pointing towards a positive start for our market.
• Reporting season continues in Australia so that’s where my focus firmly lies for the rest of February.

Seven West Media (ASX:SVW)

• Results are out. They’re usually not great. Let’s see …

• Yep true to form. Hard industry to make money. I’m not saying they won’t rise today though. Who knows what the market was expecting? But my philosophy is simple: do you want to own a business where all headline metrics are in decline? Maybe you would. Maybe you subscribe to the value investing mentality. Perhaps there is value here. Would Warren Buffet buy it? Maybe. If you have a plan and a history of making money from stocks like this then more power to you. Not for me though. I have a plan and that plan is to identify the fastest growing companies on the market and own them for as long as possible. I understand it takes a lot of people to make a market though so each to their own.

James Hardie (ASX:JHX)

https://www.jameshardie.com.au/

•  I assume these results will be much better.

• Mmm, they’re ok. The shares have been going very well so I do wonder if the market was expecting more?

Temple and Webster (ASX:TPW)

• I’m interested to see these results. I don’t own and am unlikely to but nevertheless they’re more my type of company. Again, another company that’s been going great so they’d better be good.

• Again, my gut says I would want these to be higher if I was a shareholder that’s seen the shares rise from $3 in July 2023 to over $10 today.

• Growth of 35% is more like it. That might get them out of jail today.

Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG)

• The stock that can do no wrong has their results. I’ve often described them as a “Black Box” company with the commodities trading division etc. I’ll see if I can make head or tail of their results but it always seems to me that they can report anything and the market will just continue to keep the faith.

• I don’t know about you but that reads terribly to me. I thought the same of their last report yet the shares have managed to rally recently from $156 to $188 today. Surely they can’t rally on the back of that announcement? I guess it really depends what the market has been expecting. I know I wasn’t expecting much so maybe they’ve delivered a bit more than that?

• Make your own judgements. I’m hunting for something to potentially trade or that will qualify for my model portfolio. I’m not going to bother with looking at Macquarie Group (ASX:MQG) numbers now as they’re clearly not great and I only have 20 minutes before the market opens to find something good.

Breville (ASX:BRG)

• A quality company with results today. I expect they will be ok but the retail space is particularly tricky here. We’ve seen ASX:JBH and ASX:NCK report falling profits only to see their shares soar in anticipation the worst is over. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. I’m not that interested in investing in maybes.

• Good company, good result in a tricky retail environment. I always like to see companies reducing their debt. Not enough growth to get me excited but I can understand the appeal of this company for a more conservative, diversified portfolio.

Challenger (ASX:CGF)

• Another black box company. These results could be anything. Stock has been going well so the market is expecting big things from you Challenger!

• Numbers look pretty good but as I keep saying I don’t know what the market was expecting. They say they expect to finish in the top half of guidance so that’s not a negative – unless the market was expecting an upgrade which is possible but I think unlikely.

CSL (ASX:CSL)

•  Again too big and slow for me but I am interested to see their numbers. They’ve rallied hard into this result which I have felt has increased the risk for disappointment. Let’s see …

• Not bad. I suspect these numbers will be good enough but again I’m only skimming these.
• Back to Macquarie for a minute. Just saw this on the Fin Review. This could hurt them more than their results as Nick is highly regarded and has been responsibly for some massive results for ASX:MQG.

• Not looking like I will find a trade today. ASX:TPW probably the pick of the bunch.

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Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Tuesday 13/2/24