Pre-Results Analysis: Superloop - Stocks Under The Hood

June 16, 2025

I asked AI to analyse the first half report of Superloop ASX:SLC and assess whether they were likely to reach, exceed or fall short of current analyst estimates. This was the result:

Pre-Results Analysis: Superloop - forecasts for Revenue, EBITDA, EBIT and EBT Normalised

Based on the provided financial estimates and the interim results for Superloop for the six months ended 31 December 2024, here’s an assessment of how the company is tracking against analyst forecasts:

📊 Analyst Estimates (FY25-FY27) vs Current Performance

Revenue

FY24A: $420.5M
FY25E: $550M (YoY +30.8%)
FY24 1H actual: $257.5M (YoY +33.3%)

✅ On Track: With $257.5M revenue in 1H25, Superloop is on pace to meet or slightly exceed the $550M FY25 target, assuming H2 performance remains strong.

EBITDA

FY24A: $54.3M
FY25E: $86.9M (YoY +60.1%)
EBITDA margin FY24A: 12.9%
1H25 GM: $87.9M; OPEX: $63.6M → Est. 1H25 EBITDA ≈ $24.3M

⚠️ Slight Lag: 1H EBITDA is ~28% of the FY target. To hit $86.9M, H2 must deliver >$60M EBITDA—ambitious but potentially feasible with expected margin expansion from Origin customer base.

EBT (Normalized)

FY24A: -$34.1M
FY25E: $4.2M
1H25: EBT = -$17.0M

🟥 Behind Schedule: While significantly improved YoY, a $17M 1H loss means Superloop needs a sharp profitability swing in H2 to break even on a normalized basis.

🔍 Key Additional Metrics

1. Operating Cash Flow

1H25: $30.6M
1H24: $23.7M

✅ Positive and Improved: Operating cash flows rose 29%, indicating better cash efficiency, despite higher marketing and transaction costs.

2. EBT Comparison

1H25 EBT: -$17.0M
1H24 EBT: -$22.4M
Improvement: $5.4M (~24%)

✅ Improving Trend: Still negative, but significantly improved YoY.

🔎 Other Notable Points

Customer Growth: +209K (up 46%), led by the Origin Energy transition.
Gross Margin: $87.9M (YoY +28%) — strong margin contribution from Consumer and Wholesale segments.
Balance Sheet: $55.9M cash vs $56.0M debt; modest leverage, and revolving credit facility with $52.1M capacity still available.

📈 Conclusion: Analyst Positioning vs Reality

Trajectory Assessment:

Revenue: On or slightly above track.
EBITDA: Slightly behind, but attainable with H2 cost discipline and margin expansion.
EBT: Most challenging—requires a strong swing into profitability in H2.

Verdict: Analysts appear realistically optimistic. The company is broadly on track with revenue and has made major strides in cost leverage. However, achieving EBITDA and especially EBT targets will require exceptional execution in H2 FY25.

Let me know if you’d like a revised financial forecast based on current run-rate and margin assumptions.

I then uploaded an announcement released to the market since the half-year report that would appear to me to provide more clues as to how they are progressing. I asked the AI if this announcement strengthened or weakened the above thesis:

The announcement of Superloop reaching Milestone 3 of the Origin Energy contract—with over 200,000 Origin broadband subscribers now migrated to Superloop’s network as of 13 May 2025—strengthens the outlook provided in the interim report.

🔄 Updated Assessment

Impact on Revenue & EBITDA

This milestone confirms the full migration of the Origin customer base, which was already underway in 1H25.
With 200,000+ Origin subscribers now active, the full run-rate revenue and margin benefits will be realized in H2 FY25, providing a meaningful uplift to both revenue and EBITDA.

✅ Revenue: Supports the view that FY25 revenue of $550M is achievable or beatable.

✅ EBITDA: Strengthens the case for a strong H2 margin contribution. Assuming favorable gross margins from this cohort, Superloop is in a better position to approach the $86.9M target—though execution and cost discipline remain key.

🟥 EBT: The milestone alone doesn’t guarantee EBT breakeven, but it materially enhances operating leverage, improving the probability of a positive swing.

🔚 Conclusion

This milestone reinforces the bullish thesis. It doesn’t change the core narrative but adds confidence to revenue and EBITDA projections, especially for H2 FY25. If cost trends remain controlled, this could help Superloop exceed EBITDA targets and close the gap on positive earnings before tax.

Pre-Results Analysis: Superloop - 12 month daily share price chart with 3EMA and volume indicators

Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Pre-Results Analysis: Superloop