Category: Insights

Overview: APA Group ASX:APA

🏢 Overview: What is ASX:APA?

Website: https://www.apa.com.au/

APA Group (ASX:APA) is a leading Australian energy infrastructure business. The company owns and/or operates a diverse portfolio of gas, electricity, solar, and wind assets across Australia. APA delivers approximately half of the nation’s gas usage and connects various regions through its investments in electricity transmission assets.


💼 Investment Strategy

APA aims to provide investors with stable and predictable returns through long-term contracts and regulated revenue streams. The company’s strategy focuses on:

  • Energy Infrastructure: Owning and operating energy assets, including gas transmission pipelines, electricity transmission interconnectors, and renewable energy projects.

  • Asset Management: Providing asset management and operating services to its energy investments and third parties.

  • Energy Investments: Investing in energy infrastructure projects to support Australia’s energy transition.

APA is committed to creating long-term sustainable value and has set a target for net-zero operations emissions by 2050.


🧱 Portfolio Composition

APA’s portfolio includes:

  • Gas Transmission Pipelines: Approximately 15,000 kilometers of gas transmission pipelines, delivering about half of Australia’s gas usage.

  • Gas Distribution Networks: Approximately 29,500 kilometers of gas mains and pipelines, serving over 1.4 million gas consumers across multiple states.

  • Electricity Transmission Assets: Including interconnectors like Murraylink and Directlink, facilitating electricity flow between regions.

  • Renewable Energy Projects: Ownership and operation of wind and solar farms, contributing to Australia’s renewable energy capacity.

  • Gas Storage and Processing Facilities: Providing essential services for gas supply stability and efficiency.


🌐 Geographic and Sector Diversification

APA’s assets are geographically diversified across Australia, including Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, and the Northern Territory. The company’s operations span various sectors within the energy infrastructure industry, including gas transmission and distribution, electricity transmission, and renewable energy generation.


📈 Recent Performance

APA 12 month daily price chart with 3EMA and volume indicators

As of May 19, 2025, APA’s share price is approximately A$8.30. The company has a history of providing consistent distributions to its investors.


⚠️ Considerations

  • Regulatory Environment: APA operates in a heavily regulated industry, and changes in regulations can impact operations and profitability.

  • Interest Rates: As an infrastructure company with significant capital investments, APA’s performance can be sensitive to interest rate fluctuations.

  • Energy Transition: While APA is investing in renewable energy, its significant exposure to gas infrastructure may pose challenges as the energy sector shifts towards decarbonization.


Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Overview: APA Group ASX:APA

Overview: Metrics Real Estate Fund ASX:MRE

🏢 Overview: What is ASX:MRE?

Website: https://metrics.com.au/listed-funds/metrics-real-estate-multi-strategy-fund/

ASX:MRE is a stapled security comprising two trusts:

  • Metrics Real Estate Multi-Strategy Passive Trust (ARSN 679 413 293)

  • Metrics Real Estate Multi-Strategy Active Trust (ARSN 679 413 695)

Together, these trusts provide investors with exposure to a diversified portfolio of commercial real estate (CRE) investments across Australia and New Zealand, with potential expansion into Developed Asia.


💼 Investment Strategy

The fund aims to deliver a target total return of 10–12% per annum (net of fees) through the economic cycle. It seeks to provide monthly cash income, preserve investor capital, and manage investment risks while offering potential equity upside.


🧱 Portfolio Composition

The fund’s investments are diversified across the capital structure:

  • Debt Investments: Approximately 50% of the fund is allocated to senior secured first mortgage loans, providing regular income streams.

  • Equity and Hybrid Investments: The remaining 50% targets equity or hybrid equity investments in CRE development projects, offering potential for capital growth.

This allocation may vary over time based on the manager’s assessment of market opportunities.


🌐 Geographic and Sector Diversification

The fund’s investments are diversified by:

  • Geography: Primarily Australia and New Zealand, with potential exposure to Developed Asia.

  • Sector: Various CRE sectors, including residential developments, industrial properties, and other commercial projects.

  • Development Stage: Projects at different stages, from initial development to completion.

This diversification aims to mitigate risks associated with any single market or sector.


📈 Recent Performance

As of May 13, 2025, the fund’s unit price was A$1.88. It offers monthly distributions, with recent payments around A$0.0081 per unit, though these are not guaranteed and depend on the performance of underlying investments.


⚠️ Considerations

  • Liquidity: While listed on the ASX, the fund’s underlying assets are illiquid, and trading volumes may be low.

  • Risk Profile: Investments in CRE, especially development projects, carry risks, including market fluctuations and project-specific challenges.

  • Distributions: Monthly distributions are subject to the performance of the fund’s investments and are not guaranteed.

ASX:MRE Unit price and NAV


Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Overview: Metrics Real Estate Fund ASX:MRE

Case Study: Ecofibre ASX:EOF

Ecofibre appointed administrators on May 2nd, 2025.

I thought it would be an interesting exercise to create a custom GPT that forensically analyses company annual reports to identify potential red flags and even rate the risk of bankruptcy.

To develop this, I used the Annual report of Ecofibre, a company we now know ultimately went into administration.

The report was released to the market in September 2024, 8 months prior to the administration announcement.

These are the final results.


Based on a forensic analysis of Ecofibre Limited’s 2024 Annual Report, here is a breakdown of identified red flags by category:


Balance Sheet Red Flags

  • Excessive Borrowings

    • The company is carrying a significant short-term debt load: “$15.0m due to Nubridge Commercial Lending LLC in January 2025” and “$1.0m due to J&CTTF” reclassified as current liabilities.

    • Ecofibre had to engage Chiron Financial for a comprehensive debt restructuring plan.

  • Intangible Asset Impairments

    • A massive $27.0m impairment was recognized against intangible assets, largely goodwill, from previous acquisitions (TexInnovate).

    • Goodwill impairment suggests that past acquisitions may not be generating expected returns.

  • Idle Cash vs. Liquidity Needs

    • Cash of only $6.7m against $20.8m in current liabilities and ongoing losses indicates liquidity concerns.

  • Inventory Adjustments

    • Inventory fell sharply from $9.4m to $2.6m, partly due to a $4.6m impairment. Such high write-downs indicate possible issues with inventory management or overestimation of value.


Income Statement Red Flags

  • Frequent, Large “Extraordinary” Items

    • One-off impairments and adjustments totaled $31.3m, along with other significant gains/losses including $3.8m from canceled CEO share rights and $0.8m from asset sales.

  • Net Profit Lower Than Operating Cash Flow

    • Reported a $45.2m loss after tax; while exact operating cash flow isn’t given, operating outflows were $14.0m suggesting reliance on non-cash adjustments to improve perceived performance.

  • Revenue Decline

    • Revenue declined 9% YoY, while gross margin remained flat. Ananda Health’s revenue fell 23%, signaling potential market saturation or product issues.


Other Risks (Governance / Disclosure / Audit)

  • Sudden Executive Departures

    • CEO Eric Wang resigned abruptly in November 2023. 7.2m share rights held by him were canceled at that time.

    • President of Ecofibre Advanced Technologies also resigned in May 2024.

  • Reduced Transparency in Disclosures

    • Heavy use of “normalised” metrics to exclude core business losses and impairments raises concerns about financial transparency and management’s portrayal of performance.

  • Litigation

    • Ecofibre is facing a lawsuit in Delaware court from a former employee, involving management of EOF Bio LLC and alleging mismanagement or malfeasance.

  • High Executive Turnover

    • CEO change, new president appointments, and leadership reshuffling suggest instability at the top during a critical restructuring phase.

Q: Could you dig deeper please. How high would you rate this company’s chances of going bankrupt?

ChatGPT said:

Based on a deeper forensic analysis of Ecofibre Limited’s 2024 annual report, the risk of financial distress or potential bankruptcy within the next 12–24 months appears significant, bordering on high. Here’s why, structured by key financial health pillars:


1. Liquidity Risk (Severe)

  • Cash position: $6.7m, of which $2.4m is held by EOF Bio and may not be available for group operations.

  • Short-term liabilities: $20.8m, including:

    • $15.0m due to Nubridge Commercial Lending by Jan 2025.

    • $1.0m to the Thiele Trust Fund also due Jan 2025.

  • Even assuming breakeven cash flow, current cash is insufficient to meet near-term obligations.

→ Verdict: Severe short-term liquidity mismatch.


2. Solvency Risk (High)

  • Net assets have fallen sharply: from $74.6m to $40.9m due to asset impairments and ongoing losses.

  • Intangible assets ($25.3m) and goodwill make up a large part of non-current assets, raising quality-of-assets concerns.

  • If further impairments or poor performance occur, this equity cushion could erode rapidly.

→ Verdict: Solvency is deteriorating.


3. Profitability and Operating Performance (Weak, but Improving)

  • Normalised EBITDA improved from -$13.2m to -$5.9m, showing some progress.

  • But actual loss after tax: $45.2m, driven by heavy impairments and structural issues.

  • Business units like Ananda Health are operating in hostile markets (CBD) with unclear regulation and declining sales.

→ Verdict: Weak fundamentals, dependent on turnaround success.


4. Financing Risk (High)

  • Debt restructure now necessary: failed attempts to sell properties and refinance normally led to engagement of Chiron Financial to conduct a full recapitalization.

  • Interest rates on key loans increased significantly:

    • Nubridge loan rate jumped from 8.49% to 13.49%.

    • Thiele Trust loan raised from 11% to 14%.

  • Cost of capital is now punishing, and refinancing terms suggest creditors are concerned.

→ Verdict: Capital markets are skeptical; debt burden increasing.


5. Governance and Strategic Stability (Moderate to High Risk)

  • CEO and other executives departed abruptly in FY24. New CEO joined in August 2024.

  • Legal action by a former employee regarding EOF Bio management is ongoing.

  • Board turnover and reliance on “normalised” figures obfuscate the underlying issues.

→ Verdict: Management turnover and lawsuits add governance risk.


Bankruptcy Risk Assessment:

On a qualitative scale from Low – Moderate – Elevated – High – Critical, Ecofibre currently sits between High and Critical, with the following summary:

Factor Risk Level Key Indicator
Liquidity Critical Cash vs. $20.8m short-term liabilities
Solvency High Net assets down $33.7m YoY
Profitability Elevated -$45.2m net loss
Financing High Expensive debt restructuring
Governance Moderate–High CEO exit, litigation

Conclusion:

Ecofibre is in serious financial distress. If it fails to restructure its debt or raise fresh equity in the next 6–9 months, a formal insolvency event (e.g., voluntary administration or Chapter 11) becomes a real possibility.


Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Case Study: Ecofibre ASX:EOF

Current ASX Technical View

Current ASX Technical View – April 26, 2025

Current ASX Technical View: Weekly candlestick chart of the XJO200 (ASX 200) index from Q2 2023 to Q2 2025, showing an upward channel break, a five-wave Elliott pattern peaking at 8514, followed by an ABC corrective decline to 7340. A 3-bar reversal pattern has formed near major support. Key resistance levels at 7910 and 8083 are marked, along with RSI momentum displayed below the price chart.

1. Big Picture Context

  • Rising Channel: The market was trending within a well-defined upward-sloping channel from Q4 2023 through late 2024, marked by higher highs and higher lows.

  • Completed 5-Wave Structure: There’s a labeled Elliott Wave 5 top at 8514, then a sharp breakdown — classic behavior once a 5-wave sequence matures.

  • Break of Structure: The channel was broken decisively downwardnot a subtle leak, but a fast impulsive break. That’s a major bearish signal.


2. Current Pattern

  • ABC Correction: The chart now shows a pretty clean ABC corrective pattern:

    • a down

    • b bounce (weak)

    • c down (sharp, into the 7340 low)

  • 3 Bar Reversal: After the c wave low, you have a 3 Bar Reversal formation — classic short-term bullish reversal pattern, especially off a major level like this.


3. Key Levels

  • Support:

    • 7340: Big-time support.

    • 7120: If 7340 breaks again, that becomes the next magnet (7120).

  • Resistance:

    • 7910: Immediate cap.

    • 8083: Major test above.

  • ATH Reference: Still far away at 7632 (Aug 2021 ATH) — now intermediate support if the rally continues.


4. Momentum (RSI below)

  • RSI is weak but attempting a bottom:

    • It dipped well below 50 and is trying to hook up.

    • The divergence isn’t massive, but there is a slight positive divergence compared to price — a small bullish tilt.


5. Theoretically, What Should Happen Next?

Based on the textbook setup:

  • After a 3 Bar Reversal post-ABC correction, you typically expect a multi-week bounce.

  • Targets: 7910 first, then 8083 — and if very strong, a retest of 8200-8300.

  • BUT the broader picture has shifted bearish:

    • The uptrend channel is broken.

    • 8514 was a major blow-off top.

    • This bounce is a countertrend rally unless it reclaims the broken channel. That’s important — rallies into resistance should be treated with skepticism unless proven otherwise.


6. Realistic Scenarios

  • Scenario 1 (Most Likely for Now): Rally into 7910-8083 zone → stall → new wave of selling, possibly to retest 7340 or even threaten 7120.

  • Scenario 2 (Less Likely but Possible): A much stronger rally, breaking 8083, grinding higher, but this would need serious momentum and news catalysts (e.g., rate cuts, macro tailwinds).


7. Current ASX Technical View Summary:

✅ ABC correction complete
✅ 3-bar reversal signals tactical rally
✅ 7910-8083 major resistance
⚠️ Big-picture trend broken — rallies are guilty until proven otherwise
⚠️ Failure to reclaim 7910 convincingly risks a re-test of 7340, even 7120


Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Current ASX Technical View

Short Selling: Advanced Concepts

The following is a discussion with ChatGPT delving deeper into some advanced concepts in short selling.


Q1. I want to better understand the mechanics of short selling. Is it true that it involves an entity borrowing stock from another entity, paying them a fee for the privilege, selling them on the market and then buying them back and returning them to the lender at some future time?

Yes, that’s a solid high-level summary of how short selling works. Let’s break it down step by step with some additional details:

1. Borrowing the Shares

  • A short seller (often a hedge fund or a trader) wants to bet that a stock’s price will decline.
  • They borrow shares from a broker or institutional lender (such as a pension fund or mutual fund), who owns the shares.
  • The borrower typically pays a fee (stock loan fee) to the lender for the privilege of borrowing the shares. This fee depends on how difficult the stock is to borrow (highly shorted stocks tend to have higher borrowing costs).

2. Selling the Borrowed Shares

  • Once the shares are borrowed, the short seller immediately sells them on the open market, hoping to buy them back later at a lower price.
  • The proceeds from this sale go into the short seller’s brokerage account, but they are often required to maintain margin collateral (a portion of the sale proceeds must be set aside as security).

3. Buying Back the Shares (Covering the Short)

  • At some point in the future, the short seller buys back the shares on the open market.
  • If the stock price has declined, they buy it at a lower price than they sold it for, locking in a profit.
  • If the stock price has increased, they must buy it back at a higher price, resulting in a loss.

4. Returning the Shares to the Lender

  • The short seller returns the borrowed shares to the original lender.
  • The lender gets their shares back, along with any fees earned from lending them out.

Key Considerations:

  • Margin Requirements: Because shorting involves borrowing, traders need sufficient margin (collateral) in their account.
  • Unlimited Loss Potential: Since stock prices can, in theory, rise indefinitely, a short seller’s losses are theoretically unlimited.
  • Short Squeeze Risk: If many traders are short a stock and it starts rising sharply, they may be forced to buy back shares to cover their positions, causing the price to surge further (this is called a short squeeze).
  • Dividends and Corporate Actions: If a stock pays a dividend while being shorted, the short seller must pay the dividend to the lender. Stock splits, mergers, and other corporate actions can also impact short positions.

Q2. Ok great. So my next question is this. Once the shares have been leant, does the lender no longer own the shares and hence no longer has any voting rights over those shares?

Yes, that’s correct. Once an entity lends out its shares for short selling, it temporarily loses ownership rights, including voting rights. Here’s how it works:

1. Loss of Voting Rights

  • When an investor (e.g., a pension fund or mutual fund) lends shares to a short seller, they no longer own the shares during the loan period.
  • This means they lose their right to vote on corporate matters (e.g., board elections, mergers, shareholder proposals) because they are not the registered owner of the shares at the time of voting.

2. Who Holds the Voting Rights?

  • The short seller does not have voting rights either because they don’t intend to keep the shares—they are selling them.
  • The new buyer of the shares (the person who buys them from the short seller) now owns the shares and gains the voting rights.

3. Can the Lender Recall Shares for Voting?

  • Some lenders (especially large institutional investors) have agreements that allow them to recall their lent shares before key votes (such as takeovers or shareholder activism events).
  • If they recall the shares, the short seller is forced to buy them back and return them before the vote.

4. Potential Market Impact

  • In cases of contested votes, large-scale stock lending can reduce the influence of passive funds or institutional investors, shifting voting power to traders who may have different incentives.
  • Activist investors sometimes try to borrow shares before a vote to influence corporate decisions, though regulations exist to prevent abuses.

Q3. So if the shares were borrowed from say a pension fund, would those shares need to sit outside of a portfolio that may be tracking an index? I mean, if they have been sold, they’re no longer in alignment with the index, right?

Great question! Yes, when a pension fund (or any index-tracking fund) lends out shares, those shares are no longer in their direct possession, which could seemingly create a misalignment with the index they are tracking. However, funds have mechanisms to manage this and maintain index alignment.

1. Collateral Ensures Economic Exposure

  • When an index fund or pension fund lends out shares, they typically receive collateral in return (usually in the form of cash or other securities).
  • The fund still retains economic exposure to the stock even though it no longer physically holds the shares.
  • If the stock price changes, the value of the fund’s assets (including the collateral) still reflects those changes, ensuring that the fund tracks the index effectively.

2. Securities Lending as a Common Practice in Index Funds

  • Many index-tracking funds (like ETFs and pension funds) engage in securities lending as a way to generate extra income.
  • The fees they earn from lending shares can offset tracking errors and even improve fund performance.
  • To prevent any major tracking errors, they often lend only a portion of their holdings rather than all their shares.

3. Portfolio Management Strategies

  • Some funds will use derivatives (such as futures or swaps) to maintain exposure to the index even if they have lent out shares.
  • Others may hold back a percentage of shares (i.e., not lend all shares they own) to ensure they always have enough in their portfolio.

4. Does Lending Affect Index Tracking?

  • In theory, lending shares means the fund no longer directly holds them, but in practice, the collateral + income from lending offsets the impact.
  • The fund manager ensures that the portfolio remains in line with the index through careful lending policies.

5. What Happens if the Shares Are Recalled?

  • If a fund needs to recall shares (e.g., for voting or rebalancing), it requests them back from the borrower, who must then return them.
  • If the borrower can’t return them in time, the fund buys back shares on the market, which could introduce a small tracking error.

Bottom Line

A pension fund or index fund can lend out shares while still tracking the index, thanks to collateral and careful risk management. However, lending out too many shares could introduce tracking errors, which is why funds implement limits on how much they lend at any given time.


Q4. Does it ever result in say an index fund buying more than the index weighting to then lend shares and to the degree that it brings them back to weight? I guess what I’m asking is, do some of the big ETF managers increase their holdings in underperforming stocks to satisfy demand from hedge funds to access shares to sell short?

Yes, that’s a sharp observation! While index funds generally aim to track their benchmark exactly, there are cases where large ETF and index fund managers might adjust their holdings slightly to take advantage of securities lending opportunities. Here’s how and why it happens:

1. ETF Managers Want to Maximize Lending Income

  • Major ETF providers like BlackRock (iShares), Vanguard, and State Street (SPDRs) earn extra revenue from lending stocks to short sellers.
  • If there’s high demand for shorting a particular stock (e.g., struggling companies, meme stocks, or highly shorted sectors), the stock’s lending fees can be quite lucrative.
  • To capitalize on this, some ETF managers might slightly overweight these stocks, increasing their lending revenue while still maintaining acceptable tracking error.

2. How It Works in Practice

  • Most index funds try to match the exact weightings of an index like the S&P 500, NASDAQ-100, or ASX 200.
  • However, within their tracking strategies, they have some flexibility:
    • Full Replication: Buying all stocks in exact proportion (common in large, liquid indices).
    • Sampling: Holding slightly different proportions or a subset of stocks (used in less liquid markets).
  • Some funds take advantage of this flexibility to increase their position slightly in highly lendable stocks.

3. Why This Matters for Underperforming Stocks

  • When a stock is heavily shorted, hedge funds and traders need to borrow shares to execute their short trades.
  • The fees on lending highly shorted stocks can be substantial (e.g., GameStop during the short squeeze, Tesla in the early days).
  • If an ETF provider knows there is persistent demand for shorting a stock, they may hold a bit more than the index weight, earning lending fees that offset expenses and improve fund performance.
  • This is especially tempting for passive ETFs with low management fees, where every extra basis point of return from lending is valuable.

4. Does This Affect Market Behaviour?

  • If large ETFs overweight underperforming stocks just to lend them out, it could create a supply/demand imbalance, where more shares are available for shorting than natural buyers.
  • This could potentially increase short interest and contribute to downward price pressure on already weak stocks.
  • On the flip side, if a short squeeze occurs, ETF managers might recall their lent shares, forcing shorts to cover and driving prices higher.

5. Regulatory & Risk Considerations

  • Index funds still need to closely track their benchmark, so they can’t deviate too much.
  • There are regulatory limits on how much an ETF can lend out (often around 30% of holdings for U.S. ETFs).
  • If they overweight a stock too aggressively and it drops further, they risk higher tracking error or liquidity issues.
  • Some funds cap their securities lending exposure to mitigate risk.

Conclusion

Yes, some large ETF managers strategically adjust their holdings to take advantage of securities lending opportunities, particularly in underperforming stocks with high short-selling demand. However, they must balance this with tracking accuracy and regulatory constraints.


Short Selling: Advanced Concepts

5 Stocks with Rising Short Interest

Introduction

Based on the characteristics identified in my article “Most shorted ASX Stocks 5/2/25” the following stocks look like they could be in the early stages of a shift in sentiment in the eyes of the short sellers. That could potentially signal price further price declines are to come.

Stock #1: Polynovo ASX:PNV

2025 estimated PER: 196.5 | Debt: Minimal | Cash: $46M | Operating Cash Flows: Just recently positive

Clearly the biggest concern for holders of this stock is the valuation. There is plenty of room for the stock to move lower and for the stock to still look expensive. As we’ve seen in the previous article, short-sellers like a big runway for the stock to potentially fall and they certainly have that with PNV.

 

5 Stocks with Rising Short Interest - ASX:PNV 12 month price chart with moving averages and volume along with a short position graph over the same time period

Stock #2 Zip Co ASX:ZIP

2025 estimated PER: 77.7 | Debt: $2.4B | Cash: $125M | Operating Cash Flows: Just recently positive

Again there is plenty of valuation downside for ZIP. Unlike PNV, they also have an enormous debt balance. Growth in Australia was negative when they last reported while they continue to do well in the US. On a per share basis though, revenue growth has been slowing. As we saw in the previous article. the short sellers love highly valued stocks that are showing a slowing in growth. ZIP fits that criteria. Another concern is the recent 100% sell-down by founder Larry Diamond.

5 Stocks with Rising Short Interest - ASX:ZIP 12 month price chart with volume and moving averages and short position chart

Stock #3 Lovisa ASX:LOV

2025 estimated PER: 29.3 | Debt: $359M | Cash: $35M | Operating Cash Flows: Very comfortable

This stock looks the least vulnerable on a fundamental basis. Valuation is high but acceptible considering the rate at this company has been growing since 2020 especially. Nevertheless, the short sellers are seeing something that has got them excited. I have seen some headlines suggesting there are some new competitors entering Lovisa’s market. If they were to take market share and reduce the growth rates of Lovisa, then a 30 PER will be much harder to justify.

5 Stocks with Rising Short Interest: Lovisa 12 month price chart with volume and moving averages and a short positions chat

Stock #4 Neuren Pharmaceuticals ASX:NEU

2025 estimated PER: 25.8 | Debt: None | Cash: $213M | Operating Cash Flows: Comfortable

The stock already has a lot of downward price momentum having fallen 42% in the past 12 months. While the short sellers have ridden the stock lower, increasing their positions along the way, they are still below 5%.While NEU has a great deal of potential, it also has its risks. The new administration in America and in particularly the new Health Minister add to the uncertainties. Drugs in development are great if they come-off but there’s always a chance they don’t. Sales of the their primary drug have been steadily increasing but there are other drugs being developed in the same field. The short sellers are showing no signs of going away yet.

ASX:NEU 12 month price chart with volume and moving averages plus a short position chart overt the same period

Stock #5 Whitehaven Coal ASX:WHC

2025 estimated PER: 7.4 | Debt: $1.8B | Cash: $405M | Operating Cash Flows: Declining

Easy to look at WHC and think “surely they can’t go any lower”. That is until you realise they were actually loss-making in 2021 and pretty much had a break-even year in 2020. From 2012 to 2016 they flipped between small profits and small losses. $1.8B in debt is nothing to take lightly either. Add to that the fact that the coal price is in a well defined downtrend and it’s not hard to see why the short-sellers are increasing their bets against this company.

ASX:WHC 12 month price chart with volume and moving averages plus a short position chart over the same period

Coal Price

1 year coal price chart

Conclusion: 5 Stocks with Rising Short Interest

While each of these stocks presents a unique set of risks and challenges, the common thread among them is their appeal to short sellers due to high valuations, slowing growth, or broader industry uncertainties. Polynovo and Zip Co stand out for their significant valuation risks, with ZIP further burdened by substantial debt and declining growth metrics. Lovisa appears more fundamentally resilient, but emerging competition may be fueling short interest. Neuren Pharmaceuticals carries the inherent risks of biotech investing, with regulatory uncertainties adding to short-seller concerns. Meanwhile, Whitehaven Coal’s declining cash flows and a weak commodity price environment make it a compelling target for bearish traders.

While short interest alone is not a definitive predictor of future price movements, it often signals underlying concerns that should not be ignored. Investors should carefully assess these factors and consider whether the risks highlighted by short sellers align with their own investment thesis.

 


Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

5 Stocks with Rising Short Interest

5 Stocks Offering Growth and Value

Stock #1: Select Harvests (ASX: SHV) – A Comeback Story

https://selectharvests.com.au/

5 Stocks Offering Growth and Value - SHV 12 month price chart with exponential moving averages and volume

Select Harvests ASX:SHV Short Positions over the last 12 months

 

Investment Thesis

1. Leading Position in a Growing Market
Select Harvests is Australia’s largest almond producer and the third-largest globally. The company operates extensive orchards across Victoria, New South Wales, and South Australia, positioning it well to capitalize on rising global demand for almonds, driven by consumer preferences for healthy and plant-based foods.

2. Operational Efficiency and Yield Improvements
The company has implemented strategies to enhance production volumes and cost efficiencies. Recent horticultural investments, such as frost protection measures, have led to significant yield improvements and cost reductions. A 32% production increase was achieved through expanding almond-bearing acreage and a 23% yield increase.

3. Favorable Industry Dynamics
Global almond consumption has grown by 6-8% annually, fueled by health-conscious consumers and the shift toward plant-based diets. Additionally, California’s ongoing water scarcity issues (responsible for 80% of global almond supply) may constrain future production, potentially benefiting Select Harvests.

4. Positive Outlook and Strategic Initiatives
Despite recent weather-related challenges, Select Harvests maintains a positive crop outlook. The company focuses on:
Enhancing orchard yield and quality
Securing water resources
Reducing operational costs
Exploring new growth opportunities

5. Financial Position and Capital Management
The company maintains a strong balance sheet and has undertaken capital-raising initiatives to support expansion. A recent AU$80 million capital raise will help boost processing capacity and operational efficiencies.

📌 Summary: Select Harvests’ leading market position, operational efficiencies, favorable industry trends, and strong financial management make it a compelling investment opportunity.

LA Wildfires – Industry Impact

The recent Los Angeles wildfires have not directly impacted almond production, as the primary almond-growing regions in California’s Central Valley lie north of LA. However, wildfires contribute to broader environmental challenges affecting agriculture statewide.

Key concerns include:
🌱 Severe drought conditions – 100% of Los Angeles County is drought-affected, with December 2024 ranking as the 10th driest month in 130 years.
🌱 Almond trees’ high water requirements – Prolonged drought may reduce yields and quality.
🌱 Smoke exposure – Research shows wildfire smoke can negatively impact nut production.

📌 Conclusion: While the LA fires themselves are not an immediate threat, ongoing drought conditions and climate concerns pose challenges to California’s almond industry.

ASX:SHV fundamentals

Select Harvest - Site Tour March 18, 2025 - China Daily Nuts

Stock #2: GenusPlus Group (ASX: GNP) – In the Right Place at the Right Time

https://www.genus.com.au/

5 Stocks Offering Growth and Value - GNP 12 month price chart with exponential moving averages and volume

Investment Thesis

1. Strategic Positioning in Growth Sectors
GenusPlus operates in power and communications infrastructure, uniquely positioned to capitalize on Australia’s investment in:
Renewable energy projects
Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS)
Power transmission modernization

Its expertise in engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) gives it a competitive edge in Australia’s energy transition.

2. Strong Financial Performance
📈 FY24 net profit: $19.3M (up from $13.4M in FY23)
📈 EPS rose to 10.8 cents, reflecting efficient operational execution and expansion

3. Major Contract Wins
GenusPlus has secured high-value contracts, including:
600MW/1,600MWh BESS project for Melbourne Renewable Energy Hub (~$200M)
Defense infrastructure contract ($16M) for Shoalwater Bay

4. National Expansion and Diversification
Originally focused in Western Australia, GenusPlus has expanded nationally via acquisitions and organic growth. New Queensland branches and diversification into defense infrastructure enhance its market reach.

5. Experienced Leadership & Insider Confidence
🚀 Managing Director David Riches has made significant insider share purchases, reinforcing strong confidence in the company’s outlook.

📌 Summary: GenusPlus’ positioning in high-growth sectors, solid financials, major contracts, national expansion, and strong leadership support a compelling investment thesis.

GNP fundamentals

Genus Plus Presentation Slide March 13, 2025 - HY2025 Financial Highlights

Genus Plus Presentation Slide March 13, 2025 - Segments & Group Snapshot

Stock #3: Kina Securities (ASX: KSL) – Growth, Income & Value

https://investors.kinabank.com.pg/Investors/

5 Stocks Offering Growth and Value - KSL 12 month price chart with exponential moving averages and volume

Investment Thesis

1. Diversified Financial Services Portfolio
Kina Securities operates in banking, finance, and wealth management, serving PNG’s growing financial sector.

2. Strong Financial Performance
💰 P/E ratio: 6.87
📈 Return on Equity (ROE): 16.8%

3. High Dividend Yield
📊 7.7% dividend yield, making Kina a strong income play.

4. Market Position in PNG
🏦 Second-largest banking institution in PNG with strong local brand recognition.

5. Digital Transformation Strategy
📲 Investment in digital banking, mobile services, and fintech partnerships strengthens competitive positioning.

📌 Summary: Kina offers a blend of growth, income, and value, supported by strong financials, high dividends, and strategic digital investments.

ASX:KSL fundamentals

Kina Securities TIP Group Presentation March 13, 2025 - PNG Economy slide

Kina Securities TIP Group Presentation March 13, 2025 - Market share gains

Stock #4: Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN) – Undervalued Compared to Peers

https://evolutionmining.com.au/

5 Stocks Offering Growth and Value - ASX:EVN 12 month price chart with exponential moving averages and volume

Investment Thesis

1. Strong Asset Portfolio & Operational Excellence
🌍 Top-tier mining assets: Cowal, Ernest Henry, Northparkes, Mungari, and Red Lake
📈 FY24 net profit: $422M
🏅 Gold production: 716,700 oz | Copper: 67,862 tonnes

2. Growth & Diversification
🛠 80% stake in Northparkes boosts copper output by 50%
🔀 Copper now 30% of total revenue (reduces reliance on gold)

3. Financial Strength & Shareholder Returns
💰 $716M liquidity | Gearing down from 33% to 25%
💵 Final dividend doubled to 5 cents per share

📌 Summary: Evolution’s diversified asset portfolio, strong financials, and strategic copper expansion make it undervalued relative to peers.

ASX:EVN fundamentals

BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference Presentation February 24, 2025 - Business snapshot slide

BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference Presentation February 24, 2025 - Peer margin comparison

Stock #5: Cuscal Limited (ASX: CCL) – A New Listing with a Low Valuation

https://www.cuscal.com/

CCL price chart with exponential moving averages and volume

Investment Thesis

1. Payments Infrastructure Leader
🏦 Key player in Australia’s payments ecosystem | Connects banks, fintechs, and corporates.

2. Competitive Moat
🔒 Only non-major bank offering end-to-end payment processing.

3. Strong IPO & Financial Performance
📊 FY24 revenue: $284.5M (+18%) | Net profit: $32.9M
📈 IPO raised $337M for growth and system enhancements.

4. Expansion & Growth Potential
🚀 Investing in regulated data services & market share growth.

📌 Summary: Cuscal’s dominance in payments, strong IPO, and growth strategy make it a potentially attractive long-term investment.

 

5 Stocks Offering Growth and Value -ASX:CCL fundamentals

Cuscal Slide: Small Caps presentation 26/3/25

Cuscal FY25 Highlights slide - Small Caps presentation 26/3/25

Final Thought: 5 Stocks Offering Growth and Value

In a market where growth, resilience, and strategic positioning define success, these five ASX-listed companies showcase compelling investment cases across diverse sectors. From Select Harvests’ potential almond industry tailwinds to GenusPlus’ role in Australia’s energy transition, each presents a unique opportunity backed by strong fundamentals. Kina Securities offers a rare mix of value and income, Evolution Mining is leveraging its copper expansion for long-term upside, and Cuscal’s payments infrastructure dominance sets it apart as a fresh listing with strong potential. While risks remain, particularly with external factors like climate change and economic conditions, these companies may just have the strategies in place to navigate challenges and capitalise on emerging opportunities.

 


Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

5 Stocks Offering Growth and Value

Short Selling Case Study ASX:ACL

Introduction

The aim of this Short Selling Case Study ASX:ACL is to examine what happens when the market shifts against short-sellers in a heavily shorted stock. Many investors follow stocks with high short interest because, if conditions improve, the unwinding of short positions can fuel a sharp rally. But what causes these reversals, and how can investors recognize the signs early? Let’s take a look at Australian Clinical Labs (ASX: ACL) as a case study.

Short Squeeze?

I wouldn’t go so far to label this as a short-squeeze, but more of an aggressive exit. For context, a short-squeeze occurs when short sellers become trapped due to a dramatic increase in demand for a heavily shorted stock. [refer to my article on short-selling for two examples of a short-squeeze].

In the case of ASX:ACL, business conditions have improved but not substantially and not in a way that is really surprising. The short sellers would have anticipated that this would happen one day and appear to have been ready to react. They were not trapped nor overwhelmed by buyers. Nevertheless, this “orderly” rally still saw the share price jump 50% in the space of around 2 months.

Australian Clinical Labs (ASX:ACL)

ACL was a big winner during COVID-19, benefiting from high demand for pathology testing. However, as pandemic-related testing volumes declined, so did earnings and investor confidence.

Short Selling Case Study ASX:ACL - EPS chart with forecasts

The decline in earnings in 2023 and 2024 was flagged to cease in the companies full-year results in August 2024. An increased dividend and a share buy-back were also positive for shareholders and negative for anyone that had sold the stock short.

ACL FY24 Market update

It is clear that the share price reversed when that became apparent. It has also coincided with the short sellers aggressively cutting their short positions from over 10% to less than 2%. In 6 months, the share price is up over 50% as a result.

Short Selling Case Study ASX:ACL - 12 months share price vs 12 month short positions charts

Conclusion

When a heavily shorted stock begins to recover, the resulting price movement can still be substantial, even without a full-blown short squeeze. In the case of Australian Clinical Labs (ASX: ACL), short-sellers were not caught off guard, but they still acted quickly to unwind their positions. This more orderly exit helped drive a 50% share price increase in just a few months.

However, this example also reinforces the discipline of short-sellers. They are rarely caught by surprise and often time their exits well, as seen with ACL. As discussed in my top 20 most shorted ASX stocks analysis, they tend to be right far more often than they are wrong.

📌 Key Takeaway:
Short interest can be a valuable signal, but not every stock with high short interest will experience a squeeze. Instead, investors should watch for signs of improving fundamentals, corporate actions, and short covering to gauge potential opportunities. The biggest moves often come when short-sellers exit in unison, whether gradually or in a rush.

 


Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Short Selling Case Study ASX:ACL

Most Shorted ASX Stocks 5/2/25

The top 20 ASX companies with the highest short-sold positions:

Most Shorted ASX Stocks 5/2/25

Source: https://stocksunderthehood.com/asx-most-shorted-stocks/

Let’s examine why a significant percentage of these companies’ shares are being shorted, indicating that traders are betting on their share prices falling.

Uranium (BOE, PDN & DYL)

Boss Energy (BOE): Medium term, share price falling, Shorts rising

Paladin (PDN): Medium term, share price falling, Shorts rising

Deep Yellow (DYL): Medium term, share price flat, Shorts rising

Nuclear demand is supposed to be increasing right? Uranium is a great investment right?

Most Shorted ASX Stocks 5/2/25 - Uranium price and some key ASX Uranium stocks chart

The blue line in the chart represents the spot uranium price, which has fallen 33% from its peak. This may surprise some, as much of the commentary around uranium has been bullish. However, the short positions in these three uranium stocks are simply following the trend in uranium prices.

Lithium (PLS, MIN, LTR)

Pilbarra Minerals (PLS): Medium term share price falling, short positions falling

Mineral Resources (MIN): Medium term share price falling, short positions rising

Liontown Resources (LTR): Medium term share price falling, short positions flat

The same can be said for Lithium (blue line). Mineral Resources has had some other issues which some would like to blame for the fall in share price. That may or may not be the case but it’s clear they have been swimming against they tide of a falling Lithium price.

Most Shorted ASX Stocks 5/2/25 - Lithium spot price and some key ASX lithium stock price charts

Adriatic Metals (ADT)

Medium term share price rising, short positions flat

Silver prices are up, and so is ADT. So why is there a large short position? Without a deep analysis, one possibility is that short-sellers anticipate a capital raise. ADT currently has $59M in cash and $176M in debt, which is concerning given their negative cash flows.

Genesis Minerals (GMD)

Medium term share price rising, short positions falling

Similar to ADT, Genesis Minerals’ share price has been rising, largely in tandem with the gold price. A couple of years ago, the company set ambitious growth plans, which came with significant execution risks, making it an attractive target for short-sellers. However, over time, they have successfully delivered on their strategy. As a result, short positions have steadily declined over the past 12 months.

Most Shorted ASX Stocks 5/2/25 - GMD share price chart and short positions chart for the past 12 months

Karoon Energy (KAR)

Medium term share price falling, short positions rising

Oil prices have been in a downtrend since April 2024, and Karoon’s share price has followed suit, with short positions rising. Textbook shorting strategy.

12 month share price for Karoon Energy KAR

Syrah Resources (SYR)

Medium term share price down, short positions flat

The graphite market has been pressured by increased Chinese synthetic supply. SYR has $81M in cash and $221M in debt, with no cash flows, making it an ideal short-selling candidate.

Lynas Rare Earths (LYC)

Medium term share price flat, short positions flat to down

This one is more complex, but its 9% short position cannot be ignored. The key rare earth element, Neodymium, has remained flat in 2024. LYC also trades at a high price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 40, which is steep for a cyclical resource company. That valuation is likely what attracts short-sellers.

ASX:LYC 12 month share price chart and short position chart

Dominos Pizza (DMP)

Medium term share price down, short positions up

A fallen angel. Once a market darling, DMP is now struggling to find growth in Australia and its expansion into Japan has been challenging. With $1.4B in debt, it’s easy to see why short-sellers are betting against it.

IDP Education (IEL)

Medium term share price down, short positions flat

Another fallen angel. A former high-flyer, IEL has struggled to find growth in recent years, much to the delight of short-sellers.

The Star Entertainment Group (SGR)

Medium term share price down, short positions up

The well-documented problems at The Star, combined with a significant debt burden, have made it a prime target for short-sellers. The share price chart resembles those of companies that ultimately went bankrupt. Can they turn it around, or will they meet the same fate?

Megaport (MP1)

Medium term share price down, short positions up

Same story as IEL—a former market darling that has been re-rated as growth slowed.

Lifestyle Communities (LIC)

Medium term share price down, short positions up

Yet another high-flyer that has fallen back to earth as growth has slowed.

Johns Ling Group (JLG)

Medium term share price down, short positions up

Another fallen angel that got ahead of itself before being re-rated when growth rates slowed substantially.

Cettire (CTT)

Medium term share price down, short positions up

Similar to JLG, re-rated as growth slowed.

Corporate Travel (CTD)

Medium term share price up, short positions up

After a big fall, CTD shares have been rallying. However, short positions remain high. Valuations are now more realistic, and the balance sheet looks healthy. Will short-sellers be forced to cover, or will CTD disappoint the market?

Droneshield (DRO)

Medium term share price down, short positions up

Balance sheet is safe after two large capital raises at peak prices, but profitability remains uncertain. Their latest cash flow report suggests profitability is still a long way off.

ASX:DRO short positions chart over the last 12 month

Key Observations

  • 11 of the 20 are resource stocks
    • 3 uranium stocks
    • 3 lithium stocks
    • 1 silver stock
    • 1 gold stock
    • 1 oil stock
    • 1 graphite stock
    • 1 rare earths stock
  • 8 of 9 non-resource stocks are fallen angels

Short-Seller Strategy

Target resource stocks when the underlying commodity price is in a downtrend.
Short high P/E companies once growth expectations fail to materialize.
Focus on businesses with high debt, especially those that may need to recapitalize or risk default.

Conclusion Most Shorted ASX Stocks 5/2/25

Taking a long position in the most shorted ASX stocks as of 5/2/25 requires strong conviction. So far, short-sellers have executed their strategy exceptionally well. Genesis Minerals (GMD) stands out as the only major exception, where they may have got it wrong.

Their success rate remains impressive, especially with the ASX near all-time highs. However, nothing lasts forever. At some point, a few of these companies will recover, and when they do, large short positions could fuel a sharp and sustained rally.

 

 


Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Most Shorted ASX Stocks 5/2/25

Cutting Through The Noise: ASX:S32

Sector: Basic Materials | Industry: Other Industrial Metals & Mining | Website: https://www.south32.net

Commodity Analysis

Profits for S32 were generated from the following commodities in 2024:

Cutting Through The Noise: ASX:S32 - EBITDA mix FY24 for ASX:S32

In their latest quarterly result, S32 received higher prices for most of their commodities:

Latest quarterly realised prices for ASX:S32

In January trends have remained overall favourable:

Aluminium – having a very strong start to the year

Cutting Through The Noise: ASX:S32 - Aluminium futures 1 year chart with 4 EMAs and volume

Copper – also a strong start to the year, despite the falls of the last two days.

ASX:S32 Copper futures 1 year price chart with volume and 4 EMAs

Silver

ASX:S32 Silver futures 1 year price chart with volume and 4 EMAs

Zinc – a lot of these charts look similar, bouncing to start the year.

ASX:S32 Zinc futures 1 year price chart with volume and 4 EMAs

Lead – while the chart is ugly, it’s up for January

ASX:S32 Lead futures 1 year price chart

Manganese – like lead, ugly chart but up to start the year

ASX:S32 Manganese futures 1 year price chart

Coal – the one drag at present

ASX:S32 Coal futures 1 year price chart

Broker Positioning

Market forecasts are for a return to growth in 2025 and 2026. These numbers can change quickly though. If the moves in the commodities as shown above continue, analysts will need to update their numbers which could see some upgrades come through.

Cutting Through The Noise: ASX:S32 - EPS history chart with forecasts for 25,26,27 and 2028 vs share price

Valuation Model

Valuation is a tricky game with highly cyclical companies like S32. Nevertheless, my model suggest there is some value at present in S32 with a reasonable margin of safety.

Cutting Through The Noise: ASX:S32 - Valuation model chart

Technical Analysis

Cutting Through The Noise: ASX:S32 - 12 month price chart with 3EMA and volume

The price chart shows a decline from recent highs throughout November on lower than normal volume. This is consistent with the fall in many of their commodities during the same period. Prices have started to move higher in January and the commodity charts above support this. The 3EMA have not crossed as yet but look poised to do so. The only ingredient missing so far is an increase in volume.

ASX:S32 short positions over the past 12 months

Short positions have been falling since the middle of last-year. This perhaps suggests that the short-sellers believe the worst is over for S32.

Final Word

S32’s performance in early 2024 has been influenced by favourable trends across most of its key commodities, with aluminium and copper leading the way, while coal remains a drag. Market forecasts anticipate a return to growth in the coming years, though these projections are subject to change based on commodity price movements. From a valuation perspective, the company appears to offer some margin of safety despite the cyclical nature of its business. Technically, the stock has shown early signs of recovery in January, though a confirmed upward trend may require stronger volume. Additionally, the decline in short positions since mid-2023 suggests improving sentiment among investors.


Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Cutting Through The Noise: ASX:S32

What is Free Float?

Definition and Significance for Listed Companies

Free float refers to the percentage of a company’s shares that are available for public trading on the stock market. It excludes shares held by insiders, such as founders, executives, and strategic institutional investors. These are the shares that retail and institutional investors can trade without restrictions.

Companies with a smaller public share availability often have founders or leadership teams retaining significant ownership stakes. This can signal strong alignment between management and shareholder interests. As a result, it may attract investors looking for founder-led businesses with a long-term growth vision and strategic focus.

For dual-listed companies, the available public shares on each exchange typically reflect only what is tradable in that specific market. Investors should evaluate these shares separately for each listing to fully understand liquidity.

A higher share availability generally means better liquidity. This makes it easier to trade without significantly affecting the stock price. In contrast, stocks with limited public availability may experience greater price volatility. This volatility, caused by restricted supply, often attracts investors seeking growth opportunities in tightly held companies.

While this metric provides insights into a stock’s liquidity and ownership structure, it’s essential to look beyond it. Factors like market capitalization, industry trends, and company fundamentals play a key role in making sound investment decisions.

Free Float and the Impact of Index Inclusion

An interesting dynamic of this metric lies in its connection to index inclusion, especially for indices like the ASX 300 and ASX 200. Companies with a value of publicly available shares between 200 million and 1.5 billion AUD often reach a critical range. At this point, they may qualify for these indices and attract significant attention.

When a company nears inclusion criteria, index funds and ETFs tracking these indices must purchase shares to replicate the composition. This forced buying drives up demand and often the share price. In addition, active investors may anticipate such inclusions. They often engage in preemptive buying to profit from the expected price appreciation, further amplifying the effect.

This phenomenon highlights the importance of monitoring a company’s tradable shares. Index inclusion can bring short-term price gains and improve liquidity. However, investors must focus on the company’s fundamentals to assess its long-term growth potential beyond this temporary boost.

Screening for Investment Opportunities

A quick filter of the almost 500 companies I follow based on a public availability of less than 35% and a market value of between $200M and $1.5B reveals interesting results. This group includes a mix of founder-led and dual-listed companies, where insider holdings or cross-listing arrangements limit the public availability of shares.

What is Free Float? - a list of companies with low free float and free float value between 200M and 1.5B

Some strong performances among these companies have likely been enhanced by their proximity to or recent qualification for index inclusion. For example, ASX:GYG stands out as an interesting case, as it seems the recent float was structured to intentionally limit the public share availability to drive demand.

 


Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

What is the Rule of 40?

The Rule of 40: A Quick Guide for Evaluating Growth Companies

The Rule of 40 is a popular framework for evaluating growth-stage companies. It combines revenue growth rate and a profitability metric to measure business sustainability. On this site EBITDA margin is used as the profitability component. The formula is simple: revenue growth rate plus EBITDA margin should total at least 40%.

Using EBITDA margin has distinct advantages. EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) focuses on a company’s operating performance. It excludes non-operational expenses, making it a better indicator of core profitability. For growth companies, where net profits might be negative, EBITDA margin provides a clearer picture of operational efficiency.

This approach balances growth and financial health. Companies surpassing 40% demonstrate strong growth while maintaining efficient cost structures. It also adjusts for industry variations, making it useful for businesses like SaaS companies, where EBITDA is often a key benchmark. In historical analysis of successful SaaS companies, a combined score of 40% was seen as a common characteristic of well-performing businesses.

However, EBITDA margin has its limitations. It ignores capital expenditures, debt repayments, and working capital changes. A high EBITDA margin might not translate to strong cash flows or long-term viability. Relying solely on the Rule of 40 could overlook critical financial pressures or misrepresent sustainability.

The Rule of 40, using EBITDA margin, is a valuable tool for investors and analysts. It highlights the trade-off between growth and operational efficiency. Still, it should be part of a broader assessment, incorporating cash flow and balance sheet health for a complete picture.

An Example

I ran a quick filter over the almost 500 companies that I follow and this was the result:

What is the rule of 40? A stock filter based on basic criteria and the rule of 40

This is the “Who’s Who” of the best performing companies on the ASX (and a couple of US stocks). Only 3 companies failed to increase in price this year but all of those (except IFM) are coming off a great year last-year.

This was the criteria that I used:

  • Rule of 40 value greater than 40
  • Net Debt / Equity % less than 1 (this means companies with low to no debt)
  • Exclude sectors Property, Utilities, Basic Materials and Consumer Cyclicals.

The latest list of Rule Of 40 Stocks can be viewed HERE.


Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

What is the Rule of 40?

Analyst Call 13/11/24 Summary

Summary of Nuix Shareholder / Analyst Call 13/11/24

  1. Here are the 10 key points from the Nuix Shareholder / Analyst Call 13/11/24:
    1. Meeting Overview: The meeting was led by Nuix’s Chairman, Robert Mactier, who opened by acknowledging traditional land custodians and outlined the meeting agenda. The meeting was conducted in a hybrid format, allowing both in-person and online participation.
    2. Financial Performance (FY ’24): Nuix experienced substantial growth, including a 14% increase in Annualized Contract Value (ACV) to $211.5 million and a 20.9% rise in statutory revenue to $220.6 million. EBITDA showed significant growth, with underlying EBITDA up by 38.7% and statutory EBITDA up by 60.2%.
    3. Launch of Nuix Neo Platform: A major strategic highlight was the successful launch of the new AI-powered unified platform, Nuix Neo. This platform integrates solutions for data privacy, forensic investigations, and legal use cases, contributing $12.1 million to ACV growth in its first year.
    4. Operational Achievements: Nuix exceeded its financial and strategic objectives, achieving strong operational leverage by growing revenue faster than costs. The company reported positive cash flow, with a notable turnaround from a negative position in the previous year.
    5. U.S. Market Focus: Over half of Nuix’s revenue comes from the U.S. market. The Chairman’s visit to U.S. operations emphasized its strategic importance, with further expansion anticipated in the region.
    6. Leadership Changes: Chad Barton, the former COO and CFO, stepped down in August. Peter McClelland has been appointed as the new CFO, bringing extensive financial experience to the leadership team.
    7. AI Integration and Strategy: Nuix Neo leverages AI and machine learning, especially in natural language processing, to enhance data analysis capabilities. The company’s deep learning framework is positioned to capitalize on opportunities in generative AI.
    8. Shareholder Engagement: During the Q&A, shareholders expressed interest in the impact of Nuix Neo on financial performance, the company’s AI strategy, and the influence of U.S. political changes on business. The company reiterated its commitment to transparency and shareholder value.
    9. Macquarie Group’s Stake: Macquarie remains a key shareholder with a 29% stake in Nuix, valued at $758 million. The company confirmed that Macquarie is also a significant customer but receives no special treatment compared to other shareholders.
    10. Future Outlook for FY ’25: The company set ambitious targets for FY ’25, including 15% ACV growth, continued rollout of Nuix Neo, and maintaining positive cash flow. The focus will remain on operational efficiency and expanding AI capabilities.

Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Summary of Nuix Shareholder / Analyst Call 13/11/24

Earnings Call 02/09/24 Summary

Summary of Titomic 2024 Earnings Call 02/09/24

Here’s a summary of the ten most relevant points from the Titomic 2024 Earnings Call 02/09/24:

  1. Technological Advancements: Titomic’s cold spray technology is proving transformative, offering significant advantages over traditional casting and forging, particularly for titanium, Inconel, and Invar components. This includes faster time-to-market, cost reductions, and enhanced sustainability through repair and recycling capabilities.
  2. Industry Applications: The technology is making strong inroads in aerospace, defense, oil and gas, and railways. Notable projects include partnerships with Airbus for sustainable repair solutions and collaborations with companies like Woodside in oil and gas.
  3. Revenue Streams: Titomic is generating revenue through machinery sales, powder sales, services, and consultancy. For example, Airbus has invested in equipment for aircraft repair, and the company has multiple streams in place for future growth.
  4. Market Expansion Plans: The company plans to expand operations into the U.S. and Netherlands to meet growing demand, particularly in aerospace and defense. Strategic hiring in the U.S., including experts with Boeing and Raytheon experience, is expected to bolster market penetration.
  5. Financial Highlights: Titomic reported $11.5 million in orders over 14 months, including $8 million in a recent six-month period. While FY2024 posted a loss of $11 million, strong sales growth and cost control measures have set the stage for improved financial performance in FY2025.
  6. Competitor Landscape: Cold spray technology positions Titomic against traditional manufacturing methods like casting and welding, rather than other additive manufacturing players. The company believes it is two years ahead in expertise.
  7. Sustainability and Efficiency: The cold spray process significantly reduces waste compared to traditional methods, saving up to 95% of material in some cases. Repair solutions for oil rigs and railways highlight the technology’s environmental benefits and cost efficiencies.
  8. Strategic Partnerships and Customer Trust: Collaborations with high-profile clients like Airbus, Boeing, and KLM showcase trust in Titomic’s technology. Qualification processes for repair and manufacturing applications are underway, aiming for global rollouts.
  9. Supply Chain and Geopolitical Considerations: The company sources titanium powders from non-restricted regions, including collaborations with U.S. suppliers, ensuring geopolitical compliance and reliability.
  10. Outlook and Funding: The company is fully funded for FY2025 and expects continued growth in orders, partnerships, and global presence. Long-term plans include expanding production capacity and accelerating market penetration.

Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Titomic Earnings Call 02/09/24 Summary

Titomic Earnings Call 02/09/24

Titomic Earnings Call 02/09/24

Otherwise, click HERE for a 10 point summary.

Operator

Welcome all to Titomic’s Results Webinar for Financial Year 2024. Today’s presenters are Managing Director, Herbert Koeck, and our CFO, Geoff Hollis, who will discuss Titomic’s performance for FY ’24 and our outlook. The presentation will be followed by a brief Q&A session. So please submit any questions you may have within the chat function on the right of your screen, which will be answered after the presentation.

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Information provided is for general purposes only and is not advice, financial or otherwise. Viewers should conduct their own due diligence and consider all available information before making investment decisions.

I’ll now hand over to Herbert Koeck, to begin the presentation.

Herbert Koeck

Thank you, Ben, and thank you, Geoff, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today for the earnings call of fiscal year ’24. It’s a great pleasure to be back here in front of you and share out on the achievements and all the things which have happened during the fiscal year. I can tell you, I’m seriously excited about the foundational growth we could achieve in that fiscal year, but also on the progress on so many projects leaving us at the end of the day with a great order backlog we haven’t seen so far going into fiscal year ’25.

The one thing you need to see here is, and when you look at the chart, which you are seeing right now is fiscal year ’24 has shown that the cold spray technology we are commercializing is pretty than good, especially in two categories. The one category which we have seen on and on again, which brings us technically into competition of the existing casting and forging industry, it’s in the area where we can produce, where we can manufacture, where we can build parts, specifically with the hard metals like titanium, but also with Inconel and with invar. It’s our technology of cold spray which is showing a significant advantage to this traditional way.

Any one of you who knows what the forging and casting can do and especially when it comes to titanium, knowing that this is a pretty cumbersome and complex process, where in the existing processes, graphite and zirconium, for example, are used, which is super expensive and as such very complex to produce parts. It’s also clear what we have seen is that if you want to reduce literally thousands of components in the future, these are still the traditional best ways to do it, but many customers are seeing now the need to produce hundreds of parts, dozens of parts. And the alternative is really cold spray as we can show that our time to market, our ability to reduce cost, our ability to have domestic capabilities to produce these parts, which technically doesn’t exist anymore in many countries. So, the U.S. is really a super alternative for the manufacturing of these parts. So that’s one category.

The other category where we have also made great inroads and progress is in the service and repair area. It’s in the advanced coatings and repair of metals and where cold spray can be used basically to work and to do a super job in the areas to reduce, to reuse, to recycle. So, I think we, at Titomic have a very good sustainability story when it comes to these areas. Customers like Airbus are working with us to have a sustainable way to repair certain defects and certain problems with the airplanes, and we are working with them to qualify and certify these repair processes.

Customers like KLM, EPCOR, Perron038, all in the aerospace industries have been working with us during the year to prove and to certify the way what we can do with cold spray. Now these are just two industries, on one side, aerospace and defense, which are highly interested in these two capabilities, which we are showing, but there are other industries like oil and gas, where we can leverage the same know-how we have built now, for example, in producing belts, producing [ coal belts ] and producing other parts or providing machinery, for example, for the oil rigs where we have the good engage with a company like Woodside, which works closely with Equinor on the technology side to prove that cold spray is an alternative way [Technical Difficulty] to categories.

So, at a high level, once again, it’s replacing in a certain number of instances, casting and forging to produce parts, which is the big element, but it also has a long horizon and a lot of hard work on the testing side and the more shorter oriented repair services when we are repairing existing metal equipment, which we are doing with our machinery. Both areas in the future could be two different businesses, but as such, it’s just applying cold spray. And after we have focused 3 years ago and a handful of use cases, it really has shown great results during fiscal year ’24 and also now going into fiscal year ’25, which is a huge advantage for us.

Now the one area I would like to highlight here is these two industries, even so it’s not an industry per se, these two areas where we can apply cold spray also allows us to have multiple streams of revenue. There is a stream of revenue coming from the production of parts. And obviously, we have a company, for example, like Boeing, who has more than invested $1 million with us already on that process or it’s a stream of revenue from selling certain machines as we are doing with Airbus.

But going forward also, the reason why we are doing it is the opportunity not only to sell one or two machines to Airbus to prove certain and to get the certification on the repair, but to go out there and as we are certified to be present in every repair center of Airbus and any other airline on the club, where we are talking literally about dozens, if not hundreds of machine sales, but with the machine sales, also on the powder sales, on the service and maintenance and on the ongoing consultancy.

So, our outlook at this stage, I can tell you, is better than ever. And you also have seen at the later stage, you will see the amount of orders we just got in the last four months, which we haven’t been seeing in the years in the past but we have now a product. We have a product that we know how to produce certain parts with certain properties, which are required from our customers. We know now that we have machinery when we can do services and repair, and some of the logos you are seeing on that side at the bottom are just a proof point that customers trust in our technology, trust in our ability and are looking forward to work with us to get even bigger.

If we can go to the next slide, please Ben, let me come back to the technology as such. So, what we are doing and all of you who have been with us for a while will know that the technology has evolved over time, but at the end of the day, we are taking a metal powder, we accelerate that metal powder to supersonic speed, and we push it through a nozzle. And whenever that stream of metal particles pumps against the scaffold or a substrate, these particles start to bond with each other and form a metal component.

This is an important story of the technology, as such there is no fusion involved. So, at no point in time the metal particles getting basically fused so they connect with each other. It’s the kinetic energy which drives the bonding and after heat treatment, we are getting the same or even better properties than what you can achieve with casting, for example. The other important element is, and you can see some of the advantages of that process, if you take it to the point where you’re saying is a lot of time size is a big limitation in other additive manufacturing processes or even on casting, size is a fundamental issue when you want to cast parts, which are many, many centimeters or even meters big.

On our side, the reach of the rubber dam of the spray gun is only limited by the reach of the rubber dam. And so, at the end of the day, we can produce parts which are multiple meters tall. With all the consequences around it, at the same time, we can spray, for example, in titanium already today around 4 to 5 kilos an hour, which is a deposition rate which is around 10x of what Laser Beam Power Bed Fusion can do.

So, on top, and last but not least, we also have the ability to combine these similar metals with each other. That’s an important element for applications which we are partially in, for example, where customers are using this technology into a kind of a hybrid manufacturing process.

Hybrid in the sense of, think about it, you want to create all the complexity of the copper part of the fuel nozzles, and you want to encapsulate that one at a later stage with Inconel. It’s a hybrid manufacturing or you take basically a traditional way of flow forming, for example, for metal pipes, which are used already today for the production of barrels and then you encapsulate these flow form barrels with Inconel and you work with cold spray on top of it.

So we are seeing more and more of these high-grade manufacturing processes where only cold spray at the end of the day can do it because of size and because of speed. So it’s a very sustainable way with a lot of advantages, especially also from a go-to-market perspective. Fact is, and there are some discussions going on right now as we are talking to a lot of the U.S. customers in the defense world, the fact is that, for example, titanium casting has moved off the U.S. entirely and to relocate, to bring back basically casting or forging into a country is a $50 million plus exercise and takes at least 2 years to build all these assets. At the same time, if you want to build a capacity to produce certain titanium parts with cold spray, it’s a $5 million to $10 million exercise, which can be completed in the 9 months, okay?

And these are the discussions we are in right now. These are the discussions will allow us to build this capacity and the strong plan of ourselves is to go in that direction because when it comes to the production of parts, we, at this stage, are limited to our facility in Melbourne in Australia. While when it comes to producing the machinery, which allows service and repair, we are focused on building and designing these machines in Holland in the Netherlands. Obviously, strategically going forward, the biggest opportunity for our future growth is if we also duplicate and have these capacities, especially in the U.S. market where we can go ahead and can further grow and can grow faster than if we would stay with the existing setup because some of these processes do not allow us to accelerate further if we are not building these capacities in these countries.

Let me move to the next one. Well, Ben is showing us that video, you should get a little bit of a glimpse. And Ben, if you can start the video on the left-hand side.

[Presentation]

Herbert Koeck

You can look it up in the presentation as we have downloaded it, but it shows basically the application of our manual mobile machine for service and repair. So somebody is holding the spray gun and doing the job and the repair jobs. And as of today, we have some smaller customers like the railways in Melbourne, we are going forward to address now all the railway companies across the globe.

There are some good inroads we are making in Europe right now, at the same time, always with the ability to restore original geometries. So metal components, which are worn because of the use, we can restore the original geometry and they can book these things back in place so they can reuse the part or they can recycle the parts, while they do not have to wait for new parts. In some cases, in the defense industry, this makes the difference between grounding a plane for 2 years because new parts cannot come or getting them up in the year, within weeks after the repair has happened. Let’s move to the next.

So these are the machinery and also a picture of our site in Melbourne. As you can see here on the lower right-hand side on Melbourne, we also have some solar panels on the roof. So we are generating basically a big chunk of the electricity we need to run our machinery with solar energy. At the same time, the systems which you see up there and the newest representative of these machines, which can produce these titanium parts or these Inconel barrels or these bore wells is the TKF3250. The numbers behind the machine names just represent the maximum size of a part in millimeters.

So on a 30 to 50 in theory, we can produce and handle parts of the size of 2.5 meters, which is actually for any other technology in additive manufacturing, a super big part, okay? The standard machine, the TKF 1000 has been sold now multiple times or a similar machine has been sold in multiple times. Companies like Triton in the U.S., OMIC in the U.S., DTWI in the U.K., 2 years ago were also Sabanci using a kind of a modification of the TKF 1000. Overall, we are talking about machine which can handle high-pressure cold spray and by doing so, can handle metals like titanium, invar or Inconel. On the next slide, you will find the summary of the service and repair machinery.

You see these 2 very good machines, which are making the majority of our revenue as of today, the D523, but also the bigger broader next to it is D623, which is basically the machine which we are working with Airbus and which will be used for airplane repairs. The 623 and the 523 differentiate with each other, mainly by the — as couple of parameters in terms of the temperature we can spray with the kind of velocity we can achieve but also the pressure we can use and with the pressure and the other parameters, obviously, there is different metals and different use cases, which become possible. On the right-hand side, you are seeing a prototype, which has got a lot of attention recently in the defense world. It’s basically a backpack solution, which a solder an operator can carry on the back.

At this point in time, there is some limitations which are out there in the market, it cannot be more than 35 kilos. And we will have a prototype on the development that we explained — exhibited it already at the trade show which you can see here in Brussels in Europe, and you will see more of these exhibitions and more refinement of the machine over the weeks and months to come.

If we go to the next one, the next slide, these are examples which are very important, and I want you to pay some attention to it. okay? It’s good examples of what can be done with cold spray and certain materials, and they are great representatives of where we are on projects we are specifically working on, and I want to highlight the 2 things on the right.

One highlight, the third image what you can see here is actually a titanium pressure vessel, a titanium tank, okay? It includes a flange, which is part of the component. So not the second part, but it can be developed and produced in one go. And this kind of tanks are used in multiple industries and multiple use cases, either in rockets, in space, but also in aerospace, for example, as components for missiles where they are carrying fuselage, okay? So these are tanks in all kinds of shapes and sizes, which are possible with cold spray, and doing so, once again, the alternative is either forging or casting.

And in both cases, these works well. If the customer needs thousands of these components, all the same size, all the same shape at a later stage, but it barely works with the traditional manufacturing processes if you need a couple of hundreds. And this is the place where we are chiming in and saying is, ‘Hey, we can give you a domestic capability for a relatively small money compared to traditional forgings and casting setups where you have an opportunity to produce this part at a reasonable cost, but even more so at a reasonable time.’ Because we can build one of our machines, as I said before, in 6 to 9 months, and we have proven it that we can do it multiple times. On the far right-hand side, you are seeing a good example of a hybrid manufacturer.

So this Inconel barrel actually is built on a liner which is a raw pipe where the rifling has been done with traditional ways of production and then gets enclosed with Inconel giving the barrel totally new properties. That’s, for example, something which our joint venture with Repkon is based on and where you’ll see more in the months to come as production is supposed to start.

Now let me summarize before I’d like to hand over to Geoff to share with you about the existing financials and summarize in the sense of what are the big advantages of cold spray, which we have seen now over the course of the last years and where we could refine our value proposition. As you may remember, 3 years ago, we were still defining the products. We just found what can be done, what can’t be done. We had little data.

Now 3 years fast forward, as of today, we know the performance of the product. We know the deposition rate, we know which metals we can handle and which we cannot, okay? We know, for example, the density of the parts, which when we are talking about titanium, we are talking about 99.9%. That’s something you cannot achieve with casting. Casting doesn’t get you out there. And we had to resend even certain test samples to some of our customers because they didn’t believe what they measured in the first run.

The other story is, obviously, that this is very time and material efficient. What you see here is that at this point in time, as we are producing near shape components, it significantly saves time for the customer to go understand the machining time. You don’t need to work on a billet, for example, when you create a titanium ring where at the end of the day, you are throwing away or scrapping 95% of the materials you have put.

You can produce a ring, which is at 15% and then you machine it back to the final specifications. So in all these areas, cold spray is showing, and we are getting better as we speak, also have the financial calculations for our customers. Sometimes it’s very hard because we are going against traditional production processes like casting, which has been used for the last 100 years, and they have all the data on earth, and we get questioned twice and 3 times that we have to prove — that we can achieve what we can achieve. But obviously, the numbers are speaking for itself. And so we are in a couple of projects and maturing in this project where we are on now for 2, 3 years, and we have proven the powder component, we have proven from the [indiscernible] of the process, we have proven that the material properties are where they are or we are getting close to it. And so we are getting all these expertise which makes us a really viable competition to forging and more and more customers are seeing it and trying to engage with us.

With that one, let me move to the next one and asking Geoff to comment on the financials.

Geoff Hollis

Thank you, Herbert. As Herbert alluded to, sales are certainly picking up pace. We’ve had an unprecedented level of sales in the last 14 months. So from 1 July ‘23 up until today, you can see there on the chart, $11.5 million of orders. Some of them have translated into sales, including the Sabanci University order and the Dutch Army, the Royal Netherlands Army order of 10 of our D523s and some are working through now and the guys are busy building like the OMIC and the Triton orders, Woodside have their machine out in an oil rig; the first order we’ve got in oil and gas, at least to machines. So that’s all very exciting. We just got the Repkon order earlier in this 2025 financial year in July and as Herbert alluded to, that is now underway that project. And I think we’re hosting Repkon here next week, when they’re out here for another conference, which is great. So we’ll continue to push that forward.

The good thing is with our order growth, although there’s $11.5 million across the last 14 months, since the 1st of March, we’ve had really strong demand for our products with $8 million of orders in that 6-month period now. And whilst that doesn’t make a full year on annual result for FY ’25, it gives us confidence going into the FY ’25 financial year that we are seeing an unprecedented level of demand and the work we’ve been doing in the background across our aerospace, defense and service and repair side of the business is starting to bear fruit. We know we’ve got a lot of work to do yet. And if you go to the next slide Ben, this slide stands out.

As a CFO, I don’t want to put results out that have a loss after tax of $11 million or $12 million. Now in saying that nearly half of that is noncash with employee shares and other bits and pieces, but we are building as a company, and we saw some really strong revenue growth of top line revenue growth of 126% there in terms of our revenue from customers. And of that $5.9 million, a lot of it was underpinned by the Sabanci sale, which closed during the year of $2.3 million, the spray booth with Perron, which was $0.7 million and a good smattering of D523s and some other 623. Whilst we’re not happy with these level of results, it’s certainly a stepping stone and a real transformation.

What I was really happy with — I’ve only been with the business since May, but coming into a business and seeing the real strict cost disciplines. And you can see here FY ’23 to FY ’24, across our corporate costs, across our sales and marketing costs, they’ve actually dropped. And that’s — I see a real focus on — we know we’re not there yet as a profitable business, so being really disciplined on the cost side is important to us.

I’m always as most CFOs — the balance sheet is pretty clean. On the cash flows, cash is king. We’re really closing the gap on our operational cash flows. You can see there in FY ’23, we had operational cash outflows of $10.7 million. We brought that back in to $6.2 million. And we really think — we’re continuing to monitor that cash position with sales orders, we’re balancing the growth needs of the business, we’re maintaining that strict cost discipline, as I mentioned. We really think FY ’25 is a year where that gap closes significantly again, that operational cash outflows.

Hopefully, they’re closer to a breakeven; we will know in 3 or 4 months’ time, how that forward order book is looking. We haven’t given forecast to the market. So I can’t give you a number of what that breakeven figure is, but in 6 months’ time, we’ll start getting more of a sense on what that order book is looking like, how that’s translating to our operational cash flows, and we’ll be able to be far more firm on where that’s looking, I guess. Sorry to speak in riddles a little bit there, but without — in a growth business like ours, very hard to give forecasts and without forecast, I can’t give you exact details there. So yes, we’re sitting on $2.7 million cash at the end of June.

That’s very similar to where we’re sitting today. We’ve had some good cash inflows in the first couple of months of FY ’25 being our OMIC deposit and our Sabanci final payment and our Dutch Army payment along with EPCOR. So we’re in a good position; keep watching the orders. That’s what we’re doing as a business and that will help drive the FY 2025 result.

Hopefully, hand back to you now Herbert unless you’ve got anything to add there, and you can do a closeout and we’ll get into some Q&A.

Herbert Koeck

No thank you. At the same time, everything what Geoff just has said, I’m fully aware also that we still need to improve in certain areas to bring in the company, for example, revenue recognition in the time we have planned for. While the revenue which you see out there is the revenue for the fiscal year ’24, we had a good finishing, obviously, in July from a revenue standpoint. There’s 2 projects, specifically the [indiscernible] in the army and EPCOR in Europe, we couldn’t get into it from a revenue perspective overall. But these are tiny things at the end of the day, which would have made the numbers even bigger in the fiscal year ’24 [indiscernible]

We have to get to the point where we’re getting even further predictable on this side too, no doubt. If we can go to the next one, Ben, I just want to highlight and summarize on everything which has been set and I want to highlight a couple of things here, okay? So first of all, we’re still enjoying quite some tailwind on one side because the industry overall, especially aerospace and defense are growing, specifically on defense, there is a super amount of investments going into this industry overall.

So first of all, we’re still enjoying quite some tailwind on one side because the industry overall, especially aerospace and defense are growing, specifically on defense, there is a super amount of investments going into this industry overall. And we still have to make sure that we can leverage and participate in that growth rate overall, but that’s a good problem to have that the overall industry is growing. So that’s a tailwind.

What’s basically a headwind for us is that interesting enough, what we are seeing with some customers, the more they have a need to change some of the production setups, the more they are getting picky that they are not taking any risk, okay? So in some cases, we are asked to turn in another set of data, another proof of the numbers again and again because while customers have an increased pressure to change certain setups, they also have an increased pressure not to fail.

And we are coming in with a new innovative way on the production of certain components, and they’re going to challenge us twice as much or 3x as much as there was in the past when everything is flourishing, a change is easily implemented. While at the moment, nobody can afford at the end of the day to fail, especially not when you change a manufacturing process. That’s one area.

The other area, which has become very loud and clear that we still have a lot of opportunity in the U.S., okay? The setup we have been running in the U.S. for multiple reasons, didn’t deliver at the end of the day, the speed and the level of business which we all were expecting and have planned for. So at this stage, we have changed the complete setup in the U.S. and going very aggressively from a go-to-market position into the U.S.

We are on one side engaged with a company called [indiscernible] in Huntsville, which is a set of former executives from all the large companies we want to deal with. You’re talking about Boeing, about MBDA, about General Dynamics, about Raytheon, about Airbus, about Rocketdyne. Everybody and his dog is at the end of the day in Huntsville. And so these guys are helping us to get engaged with these.

At the same time, we have hired Dr. Betty to help us for Titomic to significantly increase our setup in the sales and marketing front and engagement with these companies. Betty, herself was a former executive with Boeing, work former executive with Raytheon, and she is working with us now to push forward the projects we now can get engaged with because she has the proper clearances.

She has the contact in the U.S. And so we are seeing already after the first 2 months of her action and her team’s action in the U.S. that we are seeing an increase in our funnel. So this is really looking good. At the same time, we continue to manage cost in our headquarter in Melbourne, but we also need to expand, and there is a board sign of plan in place, which is also funded for the year to expand our premise in the Netherlands.

At this stage, we are looking for a new location right now. We are at this stage where soon we will have the lease agreement signed so that we have the second place also where we can produce high-pressure articles like pressure valves and, for example, and brings other titanium products in Holland, okay? At this stage, that feature, that function is limited to the setup we have in Melbourne.

And by the end of the year, in Q1, next calendar year, we also have that capability in Holland. Going forward, it’s very obvious that we also need to have that capability in the U.S. for the U.S. And there are multiple plans made around that one right now. So last but not least, we are working off a couple of patents also we have with CSIRO in place, but what we have added a lot of know-how and understanding on how to apply and use code going forward, and they’re set.

And before opening up to questions, just in the summary, on one side, we are getting into the market of casting and forging and for certain use cases, we have a significant commercial advantage. While we are a bar or even better in some cases on the material properties, one area. The other area is around service and repair, where we are working with companies like Airbus, basically to certify and qualify the repair mechanism with the idea to roll out our machinery in many places.

And the same application like an airplane repair also works in repairs, which needed to be done on oil rigs and hence, the work we are doing with Woodside, just a minor thing. Everybody should know that if you want to do something on an oil rig with a certain repair mechanism, there are different licenses you need to have. There are hot licenses and record licenses.

And the difference at the end of day is the temperature, which any kind of equipment on an oil rig gets exposed to. And while welding needs a red hot license because it goes over 400 degrees Celsius, and this is very limited because the vacate the oil rig, there shouldn’t be any gases around and huge problems for cold spray, we only need a hot license because we are working below 400 degree Celsius, which is a huge efficiency gain for these guys when they have to work and just with some crowded areas, and there are many of them in every oil.

So we are getting into this know-how now. We are working with these guys, and this will yield us and I’m super confident because this already yields us more projects, in some cases, more than we can handle with the existing setup, but that’s a different story. And it gives us inroads where customers are approaching us now to say, “Hey, can you look at this, can you do this and that?”

Operator

And we now have references where we said, yes, we can because we did it for this and that. And here we are at the same application. We just can leverage going forward. With that one, I’d like to hand back to you, Jeff. And if we’re getting into question and answers, we will have time now.

Yes. We’ve got some good questions, Herbert. One on the glass mold repair systems, what’s the status of the Metropac system? And are they expected to be further sales of these systems to [ IPGR ] investing in the future?

Herbert Koeck

So the Metropac system, as you may know, is now in place for more than a year. The Metropac system has been tested intensively. At the same time, there are some technical challenges we have been running into respectively, Metropac because of the glass formula, they are using specifically with Metropac.

You need to know is that every glass container manufacturing is using their own formulas on the glass. And with Metropac at this stage, we continue to work to get it certified. It may be a result of that work, which ends by the end of this year that we are applying the same product to other glass container manufacturers, which are using different types of bottles.

For example, if you see some kind of stripes on the bottle on green bottles. That’s a problem because the customer can see it, the same stripes, for example, on the quality, on white bottles like we tested with [indiscernible] in Mexico isn’t a problem, okay? So this is work which is done right now.

What you also need to know is that these projects are, from my point of view, challenging when it comes to timing because IPGR at this point in time, has a major project going on where they’re building up a glass furnace in Aachen in Germany and has put everything on the back burner, any other project that didn’t care about it because they have to complete that task by the end of October, and we have their commitment and their work that we are getting back on board.

At the same time, I have to say that we have reached out now to the largest glass container organization also in the U.S., where we are working on a project with [indiscernible], where we are trying to position the solution which we have. At the same time, we are making inroads and engagement in Australia. And if you think about it, and this is whenever you have some more time, I can share with you some other basically leveraging the same solution where we are counting basically molds.

And that has an opportunity in roof tiles and other applications, which we are in right now. So the concept of that machine is giving us a lot of foundational opportunities going forward.

Operator

Herbert, another couple of questions. This is sort of 2 partner. We’ve been doing a lot of qualification work across our component manufacturing with the large aerospace and defense primes as well as on the coating and repair side of the business, particularly with Airbus. Fair question. When do we expect to get decent sized orders on either side of the business? That’s a fair question, nonetheless.

Herbert Koeck

I totally understand your impatience on that part. The fact is, as I said to you, that we were selected by Airbus after entering processes being their choice as a cold spray provider for service and repair of certain damages of certain repairs, which need to be done around the airplanes. We have been working with these guys, in Toulouse. What at this stage, any time any of these VP cases get certified they will look for to roll it out to all their MROs, all their rep centers around the clock. At this stage, we have a funnel for further machines with Airbus, which will happen in the future, not to say in the second half of this year. But the bigger rollout, obviously, will come at a point in time when we have certain repair cases certified.

Because even when I was, for example, with Sam in Abu Dhabi at a certain point in time, the guys said to me in October, Herbert, we know what we can do now with cold spray, but unless Airbus is signing it off and authorizing us to use that repair mechanism for our plans, we can’t do it. okay? So our whole emphasis at this point in time is do everything as fast as we can with Airbus to see to qualify and to certify certain processes, and that one will lead them to a rollout of these machines into the MROs into the service centers. An important element of that task is also to ensure, and this is the work we are doing with Airbus. They are highly interested in making sure that the repair is at a certain quality level.

Quality assurance is very important for the airlines not only for safety reasons. So we are working with airbus at the moment to come up with a solution, and we have a solution already at hand, which we have shown that we have the powder, which needs to then come from Titomic, which we can ensure that every repair is at the same level of quality, which is an important element for Airbus. And if this happens at this point in time, obviously, any other airliner would be highly interested to get into a similar setup with us, not to speak about Boeing, Embraer and all the other manufacturers Fa-plans across the globe.

Operator

Herbert, another question just about competitors. Have any of our competitors match Titanic in terms of cold spray technology and solutions?

Herbert Koeck

So the question is who do you see as competitors? — okay? Some time ago, I was asked, if I see, for example, any different manufacturing companies like 3ds systems or statuses, desktop metal or some others as competitors in the market. And the order we are digging into it is, I don’t say it that way, okay? For me, competition is casting setups. For me, competition is welding as a process while we can engage with the companies who are doing welding for railways welding on the oil rigs, welding in whatever oil and gas setups. So this is the competition we are really going against it. Some of the other players, which we are seeing in the market are playing in areas where they are trying to produce machinery even cold spray to produce on-demand but that’s not at the end of the day, if you think about it, where we are present as of today. We are not producing parts on demand.

So I think you can come to me with a cat file of a certain part. And tomorrow, I can produce it on one of our machines. We are acting at this point in time in the service and repair arena, which is a relative good short-term return where we are talking about months in some cases and then to roll out these machines in the bigger scale or where we are going against casting as such where we are trying to produce parts on the long run. But when you produce parts, you don’t need a system, for example, where you change the format and to set up every other minute, okay? So we are not producing on demand.

We are manufacturing parts at the larger scale in the hundreds going forward in the future in the thousands, but the target at the moment is in the hundreds. So all the other cold spray providers, there are some partners out there, some competitors out there, which are trying to produce on demand, which is a great area as long as it works for some smaller parts and some others which are with us competing, for example, in the service and repair arena. But some of these, we just could beat in the dental, for example, with Airbus.

And so we have come forward because the customer trust us more about our competency in the machinery we have. Will we see even more competitors in the future in cold spray? Absolutely. I have no doubt about, but we’re also trying to keep that kind of competitive advantage on the know-how and how to apply cold spray, where we have made some good experience and where we are, I would say, at least 2 years ahead of anyone else.

Operator

Another question just on our supply chain, particularly around the titanium powder. Do we see any issues going forward on that front?

Herbert Koeck

So you may know that titanium powders in the past, the predominant suppliers were either Russian or Chinese okay? Both are now getting basically flagged as geopolitically challenging, because obviously, we are not using any powder coming off Russia. We had certain engagement with some Chinese suppliers, and we still do where it makes sense. At the same time, we’re even getting paid now by some customers, specifically in the U.S. who are highly interested in that we are working together with powder suppliers which are domestic in the U.S. And as such, there are some talks happening between us and Purex, there are talks happening in the past between us and Amaro. There are talks happening, for example, with Hoganas and Oerlikon, which is actually an actual supplier of us. We even got paid by one of our customers to qualify a powder, which is coming from Oerlikon for certain type of products.

And we are still in the phase where we at any given time, obviously qualify these powders, which takes some time to make sure that the powder is behaving in a way that we can achieve the material properties which the customers are asking for us. So at this stage, to make a long answer short, at this stage, we do have sources from customers, from suppliers on powders, which are geopolitically okay. and not a problem at all. It’s still so that we have to optimize some of their powders, but we are working with these guys to get an optimal output.

Operator

And one last question, another valid one that we do here a little bit, when will Titomic need to raise capital.

Herbert Koeck

So at this stage, we are fully funded for fiscal year ’25, okay? We have made a good plan and the budget together with the Board, everything we wanted to do is funded. At this stage, we also have seen some great cash inflow, quickly based on the orders which we have seen. Going forward, will be a potential need to accelerate in one or the other place, Absolutely. But at this stage, we are funded for fiscal year ’25 and everything which we have on our agenda at this stage can be funded with what we have in the budget.

Adrian Mulcahy

Beautiful, there are no further questions.

Herbert Koeck

If, there aren’t any further questions then from my side, I’d like to thank you that you have spent the time with us today to listen in on the development of Titomic. As I said at the very beginning, I’m personally excited, okay? I’m now 3 years in, and I look forward to the next to the years ahead because I can see how this is shaping how close we are getting to some of these very large production businesses, which we are looking for. And we also have learned a lot on the way, okay?

A lot on the way in the sense of what is it, what we are good at, where we have a competitive edge going forward? And what is it, what we have excluded or the work we have been doing. Some of you may remember, we started off with 167 use cases. As of today, we are working on 5 or 6 and have a lot of other projects on the back burner on the bench, which is great because if one project isn’t working out in the time we’ve given to it, we have another one ready to chime in, and that’s a nice value which we have right now. And I’m looking forward to hopefully see as many of you as I can see in our next conference call. Thank you.

 

 


Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Titomic Earnings Call 02/09/24

Special Call 22/10/24 Summary

Special Call 22/10/24 Summary

Here’s a summary of the ten most relevant points from the Neuren Pharmaceuticals Special Call 22/10/24:

  1. Neuren’s Mission: Neuren Pharmaceuticals focuses on treating neurodevelopmental disorders caused by genetic abnormalities that severely impact basic functions such as walking, talking, and eating. The goal is to address syndromes holistically by improving brain connectivity rather than targeting individual symptoms.
  2. Two-Drug Approach: Neuren has two drugs in its portfolio:
    • Trofinetide (DAYBUE): Approved for Rett syndrome and marketed in the U.S. by Acadia Pharmaceuticals.
    • NNZ-2591: Completed Phase II trials for three syndromes (Phelan-McDermid, Pitt Hopkins, and Angelman), showing significant promise.
  3. Orphan Drug Benefits: Neuren targets orphan drug indications with favorable pricing, regulatory pathways, and exclusivity periods (7.5 years in the U.S., 12 years in Europe, 10 in Japan), offering strong commercial protection.
  4. Financial Strength: Neuren achieved a maiden profit of $157 million in 2023, with more than $200 million in cash reserves. Revenues are underpinned by royalties and milestones from DAYBUE sales, providing a solid foundation.
  5. U.S. Market Success: DAYBUE became the first approved treatment for Rett syndrome, generating USD 177 million in sales within nine months of its U.S. launch. 2024 sales are projected to reach USD 340-370 million.
  6. Global Expansion: DAYBUE was recently approved in Canada, and Acadia is preparing regulatory filings in Europe and Japan. Neuren is also exploring markets like Australia and other countries with established frameworks for rare diseases.
  7. NNZ-2591’s Potential: The second drug targets multiple syndromes and has already shown positive Phase II results. The patient pool for these syndromes is four times larger than Rett syndrome, representing a significant market opportunity.
  8. Positive Clinical Outcomes: In Phase II trials, over 80% of patients showed improvements in critical areas like communication, behavior, and motor skills. These results align closely with feedback from both caregivers and clinicians.
  9. Strategic Advantages of Orphan Drugs: Neuren’s focus on orphan drugs enables it to dominate markets with limited competition, shorter and cheaper clinical trials, and robust protections against generics.
  10. Outlook and Growth: Key upcoming milestones include Phase III trials for NNZ-2591, further global approvals and launches for DAYBUE, and ongoing development of additional indications for its drugs. Neuren’s strategy combines financial stability with significant growth potential.

 


Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Neuren Pharmaceuticals Special Call 22/10/24 Summary

Neuren Pharmaceuticals Special Call 22/10/24

Neuren Pharmaceuticals Special Call 22/10/24

Otherwise click HERE for a 10 point summary.

Jonathan Pilcher

Great. Thanks very much, Ian, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for spending the time to listen to the Neuren story. Really appreciate it. Before I start, I would have to remind you that there are some forward-looking statements in the slides and in my comments subject to risks that could lead to different outcomes.

So let me start by giving you a summary of what it is Neuren is trying to achieve, and that’s to have a real positive impact on neurodevelopmental disorders. So these are serious neurological disorders. They emerge in early childhood, caused by genetic abnormalities and just have a severe aspect on just about — severe impact on just about every aspect of life, so walking, talking, breathing, sleeping, eating, just about everything is impacted.

They’re called syndromes, so the names of the syndromes are across the top of the slide there, Rett syndrome being the first one on the left. And underneath that is the name of the gene that causes these things, so the abnormality in that particular gene. So you can see, they’re all completely different, and yet, kids look very similar. So that horrible range of problems is common across all of them.

And that’s because there’s a feature that is common to all of these things, which is that the connections between the brain cells don’t form properly when the brain is developing, and therefore, signaling is not happening properly. And that covers just about every aspect of your body, and that’s why you get this wide range of impacts.

There’s never been an approved treatment for any of them until last year when our drug for Rett syndrome was approved, which I’ll come onto in a minute. So there’s a massive unmet need here. This is a huge lifelong burden on the patients and their families, and that’s what Neuren’s trying to do something about. We’re trying to treat the syndrome. So we’re trying to improve that connectivity and the signaling, therefore treat the syndrome, not treat one particular symptom.

And we do it with two drugs. So we have two drugs both trying to do the same thing, and they are delivered, both of them, as an oral liquid medication. So it’s twice a day drink, which is a great dose form for the kids.

So this is where our product portfolio stands today. So at the top, you’ve got the first drug, trofinetide. It’s on the market, as I said, for Rett syndrome, marketed as DAYBUE. And that’s through our exclusive licensee, Acadia Pharmaceuticals, which is a Nasdaq-listed company. And NNZ-2591 is the second drug. We’ve had positive Phase II trial results across 3 different syndromes, and Neuren owns that outright.

One thing you have to understand about all of these syndromes is that they are so-called orphan drug indications. And that means, technically, we’re dealing with rare disease here but, very importantly, it’s not ultra-rare. So there are thousands of patients in each of these syndromes, not hundreds as you get in ultrarare diseases. Orphan designation gives you a few advantages: one, much more favorable pricing than mass market drugs; secondly, a more favorable negotiation with the regulators, which historically has led to greater probability of the drug getting to market, getting through all the development hurdles.

And then the third thing is once you get to market, the regulators give you exclusivity periods on top of your patents. So they will give you periods where they won’t approve a generic. It’s 7.5 years in the U.S., 12 in Europe, 10 in Japan. So that’s fantastic commercial protection. So Neuren’s whole business is, a, neurodevelopmental disorders; and b, orphan drugs. And we think that’s a really attractive space to be in for a relatively small company in Australia.

So for investors, really, the Neuren story is fairly simple despite the complex science. There are three things that drive our value that you need to understand. The first one is we get our share of trofinetide or DAYBUE in the U.S. for Rett syndrome through our deal with Acadia. The second element is that same drug outside the U.S., so that’s a separate deal with Acadia with different economics, and I’ll go through both of those in a minute. And then the third thing to understand is the big value upside from the second drug represents. And so I’ve always felt this is a very attractive combination to have.

So you’ve got the certainty of recurring commercial cash flows from the first drug, like you would get with a pharmaceutical company. And those cash flows gave us a maiden profit last year of $157 million, and we have more than $200 million in the bank so we don’t need to raise capital. So that gives us an incredibly strong financial foundation. But then you have the big potential value upside of the second drug that you would normally get with a biotech company. So I think the good thing here is that sometimes with biotech investments, you’re betting everything on one binary outcome.

You’re not here because your downside is protected. You’ve got this great financial foundation and these recurring cash flows coming from the first drug. So that’s why I feel it’s a great investment proposition.

So I’m going to just briefly go through each of these three things, touch on the main points. So the first one is DAYBUE in the U.S. for Rett syndrome. So it’s approved in March last year, first ever drug approved for Rett syndrome, first drug for neurodevelopmental disorder. So really proud moment for us after a long and winding journey to get there. Acadia launched in April and got a fantastic outcome April to December last year, so less than 9 months USD 177 million of sales. We’re guiding for this year between USD 340 million and USD 370 million of sales. And just to point, everything I talk about is the calendar year, so Neuren’s financial is the calendar year.

So on the right-hand side you can see the impact on us financially. So last year, we owned $27 million of royalties. That should grow to between $55 million and $61 million this year. But we’ll also receive a sales milestone payment. So that will take our revenue to between $132 million and $138 million for the year.

Just to mention, before I leave this slide, so approved in the U.S. This slide is actually out of date because Canada was approved late last week. So that was fantastic news, approved on time. And then Acadia is preparing to file the full marketing application in Europe in the first quarter of next year, and they’re also negotiating with the Japanese regulator at the moment for the requirements there.

So let me quickly explain the economics that we get here and how we get this huge cash flow. So left-hand side, north America, the original deal; the right-hand side, outside of North America. So that was a deal done after approval in the U.S. So the left-hand side was done after Phase II. The right-hand side was done after approval. Important to understand that, and I’ll point out a couple of things about that in a minute.

So North America first. We’ve already received USD 60 million of milestone payments. But down the bottom of the slide, you see the future — the current and future revenues. So we’re receiving between 10% and 15%. Currently, it’s between 10% and 12% on every sale. And then on the right-hand side — the right-hand side or the left-hand side, there are the sales milestone payments, one-off payments as sales hit particular triggers for an annual year of sales.

So you can see the one I talked about, we’ll earn this year is USD 50 million. For the first year, it’s USD 250 million. So fantastic economics from there. But then if you move to the right-hand side, it’s even better because we got USD 100 million upfront for that deal, USD 100 million upfront last year. There, again, very lucrative milestone payments. But then if you look at the royalties, at this time, it’s mid-teens to low 20%. So much higher royalties.

So it actually means that even if the sales will stay lower in Europe and Japan than they are in the U.S., we could actually get it the same because we’re going to get a bigger share of it. So really powerful economics. And the other important thing to understand is we have no cost attached here. We’re not paying anything on to anyone else here. This is — this revenue comes to us some in really, very straight pretax profit. So that’s why it’s had such a massive financial impact on us.

A quick word about the U.S. launch. So in this chart, the blue bars are DAYBUE quarter by quarter since launch. The gray bar is an orphan drug that was launched about the same time and very comparable. It’s the same sort of size market, similar pricing. So we think a very good comparator. And you can see that DAYBUE has beaten it every quarter but has quite a different shape there. We had a massive surge in demand in Q3 and Q4 last year and we had fall in Q1, and then it’s back on the growth trajectory now but slower growth beyond that massive surge that we got initially.

We actually got heavily punished in the market for that, when that Q4 to Q1 fall happened. But we think there’s a great opportunity here in the future. About less than 30% of the currently diagnosed patients, which is about 5,000 patients, have so far tried the therapy. So there’s another 70% for Acadia to access. We also believe that the real number of patients out there is between 6,000 and 9,000. So again, growing that diagnosis should lead to growth.

And the great thing here is now Acadia has now been able to collect a year’s worth of real world evidence of the positive impact this is having for patients. And that’s really powerful from a marketing point of view. That’s a much better than clinical trial data, which tends to be scores and end points, which are quite difficult for you to understand what they mean. Now they’ve got real world evidence to use in their marketing efforts.

So that’s the first two elements of our value. And back to the third element, which is this big potential increase in value from the second drug, NNZ-2591. I’ve always had very high conviction this can be worth multiples of the first drug notwithstanding what they’ve done for us. And that’s because we’re going after multiple syndromes in parallel. And so we’ve had positive Phase II results across three syndromes: Phelan-McDermid, Pitt Hopkins, Angelman. The number of patients across those three is about 4x Rett. So even if it’s only those three, it’s a way bigger opportunity. But we’re actually working on other indications in the background and we think we could have an impact on them. We’ll talk about those in due course.

We just had a meeting with the FDA, end of Phase II meeting on the Phelan-McDermid syndrome. And we’ve got alignment on the next trial being a Phase III trial, so the last trial before registration. Very similar to the Rett syndrome Phase III program and very similar to our Phase II trials. So the same population, the same length of treatment, the same dose. So we’ve really got to repeat Phase II to get a positive outcome.

There’s one thing we still have to nail down with them, which is the way you analyze the efficacy measures, We’re working on that at the moment. And in the meantime, we’re getting ready to start the trial, so identifying sites, appointing the service providers and making the drug. We’re about halfway through making the drug for Phase III. So a really exciting time for this drug. And that Phase III is where you get a massive value uplift.

I take you back to those 2 deals I’ve showed you in the economics. Even on that example, you can see the difference in economics if you can take it to a successful Phase III outcome and way more companies then become interested. And we think we can get a much, much bigger outcome there than you can get at the first two. So that’s the huge opportunity for the future.

Just quickly on the 3 Phase II trials that I said were positive. There’s too many numbers on this slide, but I’m just going to pick out the message, which is that from a physician’s point of view, more than 80% of the kids improved during the treatment. And from the caregiver’s point of view, between 2/3 and 83% of the kids improved, which was a great outcome. And the things that improve: communication behavior, cognitive ability, and social interaction, all — and motor skills, all critical things that might be some of the most important things across these syndromes.

This chart, and I just want to hone in on there, because people don’t see we’re going to start a Phase III very soon. This is a really important. This is just a snapshot of some of the results in that particular trial of Phelan-McDermid syndrome Phase II trial. Left-hand side is the clinicians’ view of kids. The right-hand side is the caregivers’ view of the kids. Each bar is an individual child. You can see sort of a white horizontal line across each chart. That’s no change. So on the left-hand side, you can see 16 out of 18 kids are above that. 16 out of 18 improved. And we got 2 which had the best possible score of 1, very much improved. And on the right-hand side, you see a very similar picture from a caregivers’ point of view.

So lots of things important here: the rate, the magnitude of improvement, very important; the consistency of improvement across the kids; and very important, the consistency between what the clinicians saw and what the caregivers saw. So these are fantastic results. We were blown away by this.

Okay. I’m just going to close by looking at the milestones for the past and future. So we’ve had another massive year so far. A lot has happened. We’ve had positive Phase II results in 3 different syndromes, as I said, Phelan-McDermid, Pitt Hopkins, Angelman. We’ve had that great meeting with the FDA about the way forward. Acadia had more than USD 160 million of sales in the first half. And you’ve seen the guidance again for the full year. So we had $24 million of royalties in that first half.

The next point, as I said, they’ve got approval in Canada, which is fantastic to see on time. And they’ve also gone through the first element of the European regulatory process. So that’s a great year so far, but there’s a lot coming up. So as I said, we’ve got to confirm that final thing with FDA on the Phase III trial. We’re going to then commence the Phase III program. It should be a massive event for the company. We’re looking at those other indications. As I said, we’ll talk more about them in due course. Potential royalties and sales milestones at $130 million to $138 million for the year. No longer a potential approval in Canada, but actually launched trofinetide in Canada. And then that submission in Europe in the first quarter next year.

So huge amount coming up. It’s been a massive 2 years for us, a transformational 2 years, but a huge amount still to come. So thank you very much. I will stop there and happy to take questions.

Unknown Attendee

Great story, Jon. Thank you for the presentation. We do have a number of questions coming through. Just for the sake of completeness, I’ll ask a couple of which I think you might have answered almost completely. But you mentioned U.S. and outside the U.S. The first question was, where outside U.S., I think you said Canada, Europe and Japan. The question then went on, what’s happening in Australia?

Jonathan Pilcher

Yes, right. So Canada, Europe and Japan are the first, the top priority, and part is because they’ve got very well-established orphan drug rare disease regulatory frameworks and business long standing. So that’s why they’re the first target. But there’s many other countries that are hoping we’ll get to, and Australia is one of them. I can’t tell you anything specifically until Acadia does, but I certainly hope it will come to Australia in due course.

Unknown Attendee

Also a couple of questions here around performance. And again, to the extent that you can, tell us about what may mean for the future with revenues down flowing to perhaps share price. Again, I know you’re an ASX-listed company. What can you tell us about how the future may look?

Jonathan Pilcher

Yes. Look, I mean, I’m disappointed here since revenue is down. I mean, with 10% of sales and that fall from quarter 1, which then became growth again in quarter 2. I mean, the impact on us is minimal in terms of royalties. So we’re still very optimistic about the future and said that cash all flows to the bottom line. So I think it’s hugely attractive still. So I think it’s way overdone, the reaction from everyone to that. Acadia is going to — as I mentioned, Acadia going to report their next quarter, Q3, I think it’s the 7th of November Australia time. So that will be important to see that in the next quarter. But all the metrics are pointing in the right direction. So we feel good about it.

But as I said, the main game from a value point of view now is the second drug and the huge uplift we can get if we can execute that given the first 2 results we’ve had.

Unknown Attendee

A little bit about the competitive landscape in the United States, world’s biggest market for just about everything. Who are your competitors and how do you stack up against them?

Jonathan Pilcher

Yes. So one very attractive thing about working in these sort of conditions is that compared to mass market drugs, there’s very little competition. And in fact, Phelan-McDermid and Pitt Hopkins, we’re leading the way very comfortably. So we can be the first to market. Rett, currently, there are no competitors. DAYBUE is the only product on the market. The long-term competitors potentially is gene therapy. So all of these syndromes, there are gene therapy companies in the early stages of development.

In Rett, they’re in the early stages of clinical trials and some of the others that haven’t reached clinical trials yet. So my view on gene therapy, it’s not going to be a cure. The data that’s come out in Angelman syndrome in particular and in Rett is showing improvements, but they’re not that dissimilar to the improvements we see. So completely different approach, can be complementary and probably, time will tell, but probably you get a better outcome in both.

So — but they’ve got a long way to go yet from a clinical and regulatory point of view.

Unknown Attendee

And one quick one, Jon, just to finish. Why Rett disease and orphan drugs? You’ve seem to have answered part of that in your last response.

Jonathan Pilcher

Sorry, sorry…

Unknown Attendee

Why…

Jonathan Pilcher

Yes. Well, as I said, I think they’re brilliant because you can be first to market, set the price without competition, dominate the market as Acadia has done, and you get that protection against generics. So — and the trials you have to do is shorter. They are much cheaper because you need much less people because of what the regulators will allow you to do. If you go after mass markets, it sounds very attractive. But you’re probably doing trials with thousands of patients that will take many years, cost a fortune, and then you’re just assuming you’re going to take market share from big companies, which is not always the case.

So I’ve always thought this is a fantastic place for particularly for a small company to appear in.

Unknown Attendee

Okay. That’s great. We’re right on time, Jon. Thank you so much for your time today and being part of ASX CI Connect.

Jonathan Pilcher

Thanks, Ian, and thanks very much, everyone, for listening to us.

 

 


Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Neuren Pharmaceuticals Special Call 22/10/24

https://www.neurenpharma.com/

Analyst Call 01/11/24 Summary

Analyst Call 01/11/24 Summary

Here’s a summary of the ten most relevant points from the Austal Shareholder / Analyst Call 01/11/24:

  1. Leadership Transition: John Rothwell, founder and former chair of Austal, stepped down after 37 years. Richard Spencer, former U.S. Secretary of the Navy, was introduced as the new chair.
  2. Historical Achievements: Austal’s journey began in 1987, evolving from building ferries to designing and constructing high-speed naval vessels and submarine modules for defense clients like the U.S. Navy and Australian Border Force.
  3. Financial Recovery: Austal reported a turnaround from a $14 million net loss in FY23 to a $14.9 million net profit in FY24, driven by efficiency improvements and strategic growth.
  4. U.S. Operations Expansion: A $450 million investment supports the development of a submarine module manufacturing facility in Mobile, Alabama, highlighting Austal’s role in the U.S. defense industrial base.
  5. Strategic Partnerships: Austal aims to transition from being a shipbuilder to becoming a strategic partner for defense clients, focusing on collaboration, innovation, and sustained vessel support.
  6. Long-term Contracts: The company secured an order book valued at $12.7 billion, excluding potential Australian projects. This includes commitments spanning up to 20 years, ensuring business stability and growth.
  7. Technological Innovations: Austal is advancing in additive manufacturing, robotics, and autonomous capabilities, crucial for next-generation defense and commercial maritime needs.
  8. Australian Defense Role: Austal was designated as a strategic shipbuilder for Tier 2 vessels in Australia, positioning it for continuous naval shipbuilding projects over the next two decades.
  9. Shareholder Concerns: Questions were raised about cash flow issues related to an onerous U.S. Navy contract (T-ATS program) and the need for better corporate communications and transparency in market announcements.
  10. Future Growth: Austal is poised for growth with investments in advanced shipyards, diversification into new defense sectors, and opportunities arising from the AUKUS agreement’s technological and defense collaboration.

 

 


Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Austal Limited Analyst Call 01/11/24 Summary

Austal Limited Analyst Call 01/11/24

Austal Limited Analyst Call 01/11/24

Otherwise, click HERE for a 10 point summary.

John Rothwell

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. They’re probably not all that many people that don’t know me, but my name is John Rothwell, and I’m the founder and the past Chair, I said correctly. So we have — I would like to welcome you all to the 2024 Annual General Meeting at — of Austal. And my role today isn’t — in some ways, it’s fortunate. I’ve been doing this for 25-odd years and I’ve been the head of the company for 37.

So — but we have a new chair, and my role today is to introduce that new Chair. And I will do that in a moment, but I would probably just like to spend a couple of minutes, and that’s about all. We’ve got some pictures of the past 37 years since we started Austal, and it’s been a fun ride. The day is too short for me to start telling too many stories, but it’s been phenomenal.

So 37 years ago, I invited some young guys that had worked with me or for me to listen to my vision of what we could do with Austal. They joined me, and we kicked off back in — set up in ’87, started ship construction in ’88. Now again, most of you know the road that we’ve traveled and started off with ferries for China, then decided that maybe we needed a broader spectrum of work and started to build some patrol boats for the Australian Coast Guard customs-type people. And I guess and some of these, of course, the bigger ferries that you’re seeing now, but we grew through that.

And the highlight for me was, of course, what we finally achieved in the United States back in, let me just try and get this right, about ’97, I was invited to Washington to attend a workshop for — by U.S. Navy to try and determine how they could use high-speed ships for U.S. Navy and the workshop didn’t achieve too much.

But what it did do it convinced me and I was able to convince the other shareholders that we should be in U.S. That, of course, culminated in — we were not security cleared. We had to be a subcontractor to General Dynamics. And we did that in the end, that was when we got our own security clearance, they disappeared and they became a subcontractor to us quite frankly. But that’s the U.S. front.

And in Australia, we continue to build high-speed ferries such as you’re seeing, we opened a shipyard in Cebu and one in Vietnam and continued on with trying to win more defense contracts. And you will have all read recently in the last 12 months or so, where Paddy, our CEO, largely drove the relationship with Strain Defense, and we’re now in a very good position to build war ships, invest in Australia that are going to be built here.

So for me, personally, the highlight was very much the USS Canberra sailing into Sydney. So just think about this we were tasked or we started again. We put our hand up to bid for future little combat ships. And I think that came about largely after the attack on the USS Coal in Yemen, where maybe started to think about agility in literal areas.

And we then had a Trimaran, which you’ve seen some of here, the yellow boats that you saw as a commercial vessel. We then locked about 60 young Australian naval architects up in a secure area for a period of time, and they spent to us for years developing that warship.

So it was to see to think about a total concept by Austal, of which your shareholders or many of you are shareholders to think that, that could turn around and have become — we’ve built something like about 18, 19 of these ships right now. To think that one of them would one day be called USS Canberra and be escorted in through the Sydney head by the HMAS Canberra, it was a phenomenal moment for me. And all our people would have been very, very proud. It was absolutely done by Australians, although built in the United States.

So I’ve gone on long enough. I promised you I would introduce our Chair and many you will have seen Richard Spencer’s name. Richard has a lengthy career in both Navy. Of course, he was the Secretary of Navy in the U.S. the highest position that you can have in maybe in the U.S., to my knowledge. I think that’s right. And so he knows the customer real well, that is our majority customer.

Richard then also spent a lot of time working in finance area, and it was very fortunate that we came across Richard, and he agreed to Chair the Board. From my own perspective, it was something I’ve been thinking about for a couple of years, I turn 80 early this year. And only a few goes on too long, I keep saying, and I certainly didn’t want to be in that space. But I deliberated on what would be the most suitable future tier successor for me.

And again, very fortunate to have come across Richard. So what I’ll do, I’ll vacate this space. I think before I go, just to say that I think Austal’s in a great position, and I don’t want to pat myself on the chest and show, I did all that because it’s a whole bunch of people that did that. And I was fortunately part of it. But Austal’s in a great position when you’ll hear much more about what we’re doing in the U.S. You’ll hear about we’ve come through the aluminum or ships such as that and also a fast freight called EPF. And we’re now, of course, doing steel ships. We’re also doing components or modules for the submarines, the Virginia class submarines and maybe Columbia ones as well later on.

But Austal’s in a great position. I think it will do very well with a new chair. I think we’ve got an excellent team — business team — sorry, the business leaders at Austal under Paddy. And I just feel that it’s set for a great future. I’d like to think that when I do step off the bustle together out of the Board, I would like to be able to sit back there and continue to see Austal prosper and I feel confident that it will.

So there’s one more thing I wanted to do before I move on. Chris Indermaur has been our director for the past 6-plus years. Chris has added a lot of value, and I wanted to personally thank you, Chris, for what you’ve been able to do. So let me shut up and let me put someone far more capable of talking in front of these microphones. Thank you.

Richard Spencer

Thank you, John. You’re not going to get away that easy. But before I say a couple of words on my own folks, let me address some formalities of this meeting, if I could. This is a shareholders meeting and only shareholders, their proxies, attorneys and authorized representatives are entitled to speak at this meeting.

This is a meeting being webcast to shareholders, who are unable to attend in person. As it is a webcast, virtual participants will be able to listen to the meeting live and view the presentation materials, but they will not be able to ask questions, make comments nor vote through the webcast facilities.

I’d like to introduce my nonexecutive directors, who you can see are here before you Sarah Adam-Gedge, who serves as our Deputy Chair and also Chair of the Audit and Risk Committee; Chris Indermaur, who is the Chair of the Board’s Nomination and Remuneration Committee. Chris was up for reelection at this meeting, but has decided not to put himself forward for reelection. His term will, therefore, come to an end at the conclusion of this meeting. I would like to personally thank Chris for his 6 years of service since 2018. Your contributions have been invaluable.

Lee Goddard, who has been on the board since January of 2023. Kath Toohey, who joined us February of this year; Brent Cubis, who joined us in October of this year, and of course, Paddy Gregg, our Chief Executive Officer. Each of our Board members presents — is able to assist in answering your questions as we go forward today.

We also have a representative from the company’s auditors, and external legal advisers present. John, it’s an absolute privilege and honor for me to accept the transfer of reigns from you as Chairman to oversee this great company. Austal’s accomplishments here in Australia and overseas have been absolutely remarkable, and it’s due in no small part to your amazing presence foresight, drive, determination and strategic approach to the Austal business. And this, ladies and gentlemen, I think we give John a good round of applause for what he has done.

Much has been made of Austal’s transition from building aluminum cray boats to the present, occupying a crucial position in the U.S. defense industrial base as the designer and/or builder of warships and nuclear submarine modules for the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Coast Guard.

The company started with just one build program in the U.S., as John referenced, the joint high-speed vessel for the Navy Military Sealift Command. Now it has 12 programs in the United States. And with the expansion of additive manufacturing, which Paddy will get into, it will provide us even a more secure place within the defense industrial base and ultimately provide you the shareholder greater value.

This staggering expansion has been a 36-year journey for Austal with one constant, John Rothwell. I needed to do very little due diligence when I was approached to take the Chairman’s role. I had already had a significant interaction with the company going back to 2017, when I was Secretary of the Navy. I was impressed with its pragmatic approach, its desire to grow and provide solutions to its customers, such as the U.S. Navy, the Royal Australian Navy, U.S. Coast Guard and Australian Border Force.

And I was also taken by the amazing commitment of Austal employees to their respectful — for their respective national security. On the latter point, one thing that struck me when I first visited Austal’s headquarters down in Henderson last July and that was the honor board in the Austal office. And in particular, the staff who had worked at Austal for 10, 20 and 30 years.

The list is incredibly long, ladies and gentlemen. John himself has 30 years, as you well know, another 30 staff members have clocked up 25 years. Another 36 members have clocked 20 years. I see a similar set of boards in Mobile, Alabama. And I note some of the original disciples that came over from Australia have remained there since the doors opened 20 years ago back in 1999.

The longevity of workforce is a testament to the culture of an organization. The number of people who remain with Austal is a testament to Austal itself. Since becoming Chairman, I’ve held initial discussions with some of Austal’s most important stakeholders, whether they are employees, customers, suppliers or shareholders.

The 3 things have stuck with me. First, the can do DNA that permeates the enterprise, whether in Australia or the U.S. and the acknowledgment of that DNA by those stakeholders, particularly our customers. Two, the understanding of continual advancement of modular assembly and industrial flow as it pertains to our business, we are like no other in the defense ecosystem. For those who don’t have the same understanding of industrial flow charts, that translates to the continuing build of ships more efficiently.

Three, the endorsement and appreciation of intellectual curiosity, which can be seen in our center of excellence for additive manufacturing, robotics, advanced materials and the application of evolving technologies. These provide the foundations of our business. And those foundations will support the company’s growth and again, ultimately provide value to you, our shareholders.

I’m not going to spend a lot of time on the financials for the year that just ended because I was appointed post June 30 and can lay no claim to having any influence on the quick turnaround. The quick turnaround $4.8 million earnings before interest and tax loss in fiscal year ’23 to a $56.5 million positive EBIT in 2024. A $28 million turnaround in profit from a loss of $14 million in ’23 to a net profit after tax of $14.9 million in fiscal year ’24.

However, what those figures tell me is that as Austal enters the next chapter of its life, it will with an excellent financial and operational base to support further growth. And our growth strategy for the next phase is very simple, but groundbreaking at the same time. Let me explain why.

Our goal at its core is to be the strategic partner for the Australian and U.S. Navy’s Border Force and Coast Guard. When it comes to maritime products, we will be first of mind. That is our goal. We want to move away from other companies to simply take orders and build ships. We want to be there to solve problems, a disciplined strategic partner.

What do I mean by that? I believe a partnership is where we work together collaboratively with our customer to improve designs to reduce build times, to make the build process more efficient, a partnership where we ultimately understand their drivers and provide solutions to their problems, a partnership where we provide support to their vessels over many years and then put what we learn from sustaining those ships back into future designs, so we continually improve.

It sounds simple, yet no other companies are doing it. So the playing field is wide open for Austal. And we will own this space and entrench ourselves with our customers. Our expansions in the submarine modules and additive manufacturing is an example of this, but it is just the beginning. We have continually invested in Mobile, Alabama, and we probably have the most modern shipyard in the U.S., coupled that with a technology like robotic welding and there’s no one who can touch us.

Expect more from robotics and what we call Industry 4.0 as we build out our submarine module facility in Mobile. This investment helps us improve efficiency, provide cost-effectiveness solutions for our customers, as I addressed earlier.

In the U.S., the planned growth of our campus in Mobile will be a key component of our strategy. And there are some really important points about the planned expansion of Mobile that I’d like to highlight. Firstly, many companies take a considerable build it and hope they will come. This risk is usually undertaken with capital expansion similar to those that we are about to embark on. Austal does not take that risk, because we already have the construction contracts in place to underpin that expansion.

So provided we can efficiently execute. It does not pose the risk that other capital expansion programs pose. Secondly, in some cases, we’re actually being paid to expand with other groups funding the capital cost because of Austal’s importance to the U.S. military industrial base. As an example, the recent announcement of the funding from the U.S. Navy through a contract from General Electric — I beg your pardon, General Dynamics Electric Boat, where electric boat will pay Austal $670 million to build a submarine manufacturing facility is a testament to how Austal is viewed by those in this industry.

Austal’s market capitalization is about $1 billion. Yet there is one of the biggest companies in America, defense companies in America, paying Austal the equivalent of 2/3 of its market cap not to build submarine modules, but to build the facility that will ultimately build those modules. And while we don’t and will not take it for granted, there is no doubt in my mind that this is an enabler and hopefully, a precursor for the future construction contracts on the U.S. nuclear submarine build program.

Additionally, while I have naturally devoted much of this speech to the United States. Austal’s position in Australia defense industrial base is just as important to our strategy. The strategic shipbuilding agreement heads-up agreement signed with the Commonwealth late last year, should position Austal as the Commonwealth preferred shipbuilder for all Tier 2 vessels, such as landing craft medium, landing craft heavy general person — I beg your pardon, general-purpose frigates and optionally crude vessels. This will establish Austal’s position with the American — with Australian defense and provide us build orders for the next 20 years with a considerable backlog to perform more.

Strategic is an overused word. But in this case, it is perfectly apt. The federal government is taking a very strategic approach to its maritime defense requirements. And importantly, Austal and its shareholders that — Austal and shareholders, that strategic view extends to the vessel construction program needed to meet those requirements. If the submarine modular facility and the submarine build in the U.S. is an enabler and a precursor, then I believe the SSA is a similar enabler and precursor in Australia.

And Austal will have that same position as a strategic partner with the Australian Navy. One thing I haven’t mentioned is AUKUS. There’s another ripe opportunity for us to benefit. We are one of the few Australian businesses with significant operations in the United States, and I am certain there will be future opportunities in this space, both in Pillar 1 with submarines and Pillar 2 with some of the technologies I’ve already referenced, which brings us full circle back to John Rothwell, the company he has built and what has been achieved by many, many — and has achieved many, many great things, including those I’ve just listed. And I hope he continues to receive the accolades that he is due. Austal is poised to build on that foundation in the years to come. And that’s what I’m looking forward to as Chairman of the Board on behalf of you, the Austal shareholders. Thank you.

Patrick Gregg

Good afternoon, everybody. So I’m going to build on what both John and Richard have talked about and help you understand just what an exciting point Austal is at. I’ll refer back to some historical information to help frame where we were 3-or-so years ago. And hopefully, that will you understand just what a great situation we’re in today. And I’ll fast forward a bit and help you understand some of the announcements we’ve made and what that’s going to look like for the future. And then because we built some very cool stuff, we’ll have a lovely video at the end to, again, show products that are actually happening.

So if I think about the situation we’re in at a minute, we’ve cleared or we’re clearing the slipway we’re ready for launch. We’ve had 3 pretty tough years, a lot of issues to deal with. And I think we’ve got through the vast majority of that. And the business is absolutely primed and ready for growth. In the last year, we delivered our EBIT guidance, pretty much bang on the middle of the range that we gave. And today, we’ll be giving more EBIT guidance for this year. Big issue that was overhanging us. We resolved the Department of Justice matter, and that really has freed us up to look towards the future, an issue that happened back in 2015, and we spent 4 years working on, having got that behind us really opens up in the future.

And as both John and Richard have talked about, relationships to the customer are vitally important. The whole team have worked incredibly hard in the United States and in Australia to build that relationship and to become a trusted partner. We are really committed to delivering on our commitments, and I think that’s really been recognized, and we’re in great shape today. So if we look back 3 years, we were probably stood here talking about what does Austal look like after LCS ends? That was the big question. You built 2 programs in the United States. One of them is going to end, what are you going to do? Is this the end? What does it look like? So I can now tell you around 13 programs in the United States. We’re working with Navy. We’re working with Coast Guard. We’re working in aluminum. We’re working in steel. We’re working in ships. We’re working in submarines.

It’s been a phenomenally hard 3 years and the diversity we now have in the business puts us in a really great place for long-term growth. That steel investment happened and we opened the facility back in 2022. It’s really hitting its stride now on some of the technology and the automation and the robotic welding we’ve got in there, this is a world-class shipbuilding absolutely at its best.

Submarine modules and the manufacturing facility. I’m going to show you pictures of that and help you understand what it is. But yes, helping people understand that, that $450 million announcement is to increase our facilities. We will then have those facilities for many, many years of revenue to go through the business. San Diego drydock, it is now in San Diego, and we’re working through this year to commission it. So again, another area of growth, not just shipbuilding, we set a target few years ago to get to $500 million of revenue by FY ’27.

You’ll see in the pictures of that dock and how that is going to enable us to hit those targets and indeed exceed them. And then thinking back here, 3 years ago, we were building the 13th Guardian. We’re now on the 21st or just delivered the 21st Guardian on the 11th Evolved Cape,and we’re now on 18th and appointed as the strategic shipbuilder in Western Australia, something that we could have only ever dreamed of, really.

For years, we’ve talked about the need for continuous naval shipbuilding, the efficiency and the certainty that we’ll put into the business and the employees. Whenever the government came out last November and announced us as a strategic shipbuilder, really put us into a new league and really paved the way for a long bright future. So we’ve put a lot of work into creating long-term value for our shareholders. The strategic growth opportunities, the order book that sits at $12.7 billion today, excluding everything that’s coming in Australia. That is probably the best part of $20-plus billion over 20 years.

So these are numbers we could never talk about. Business diversity and reducing risk. Whenever we had 2 programs, if we had a problem on one program, it just marked its way through the results and made shareholders pretty unhappy. That diversity of workload hopefully, when somebody is having a good day and somebody is having a bad day, we can actually still carry on delivering stable results as a business.

Lots of programs that we’ve won. We are moving from this transition phase and we’re now into the execution phase. So we’ve won the work. That’s arguably the hard bit. Whenever it’s execution, it’s much more in our control. Huge investments coming, whether that’s submarine modules or the land next door. And again, I’ll show you that on pictures. And I still think, even though we’ve had a great run in the share price in the last couple of weeks, whenever you look at how big this business is going to be in years to come, there’s still opportunity for share price growth.

So comparing some of this year’s stats to 3 years ago, some of these will help explain the situation we were entering. Ships ordered one back in 2021. So we were coming off a peak and we were entering a bit of a trough as we transitioned from the old LCS EPF programs into what’s new? This year, 13 ships ordered. So we are growing. There is more coming.

Ships under construction. That order book is there, and we’ve got the runway ahead of us. Ships delivered. Look at that record a year or 3 years ago, 19 ships delivered in a year, only 7 ships delivered this year. That gives me the confidence that we are back on the way up and look at what we have delivered in the past.

We know how to do this. Execution is what we do very well. We are ready for it. Ships under sustainment, recognizing sustainment a great part of our business, having delivered all those ships over the last few years. Lots more work and growth in the sustainment world. Service centers and shipyards very similar to where we were 4 years ago, but investment in those and making them ready for growth is what we focused on.

As the workload dropped off, the employees dropped off, but look at where we have been, we probably need 3,000 employees globally right now, 2,000 in the U.S., 1,000 in Australia as these programs come on board. We’ve run a bigger business. We know how we will do it. It’s not going to be easy, but we need to go out and win those people back and grow the revenue. And then the order book, very, very pleasing figure. Tendering is a difficult thing. Winning is even harder.

We’ve got that order book, and we’re not ready for delivery and execution. And again, revenue falling as the order book dropped off and ready to grow as we recruit people going forward. And what does that look like in pictures, I could have put 3 pictures up there 3 years ago. And here we are with some amazing opportunities.

Nuclear submarines would never have been on there. Nuclear submarine is probably a Navy’s greatest asset and something that will go for a very, very long time. So getting into that program is a tremendous opportunity for us. Top right, you see the Coast Guard also diversifying our customer base, working with the U.S. Coast Guard and the same way we work with the Australian Border Force building ships in steel and aluminum, they attach ship right in the middle, the first deal ship that we’re working through an incredibly big and complex ship.

And then looking forward to the future, whether it’s medium landing craft, heavy landing craft and the general-purpose frigate that the government have all announced great opportunities for Austal to go and get after. And then also really pleasing, 2 tremendous shipyards in the Philippines and Vietnam.

A few years ago, we moved our commercial work to those countries, so we could still be internationally competitive and it was really tough during COVID. People did not want to spend $100 million on a new boat whenever they were unsure as to whether they could get the revenue back on that.

Well, that’s changing. We have won 3 orders, and there are more in the pipeline. So we will see the Philippines and Vietnam continue to grow as we go forward. So pretty much exciting and great opportunities right across the business everywhere I look right now.

So some of the financial highlights. These were the year-end results. So as Richard talked about, last year was a tough year or the year before it was a tough year. We had the onerous contract with T-ATS, and that didn’t do us any favors. But having turned the corner coming back up, delivering $56.5 million of EBIT. We’ll talk about guidance soon. We spent a lot of money investing in the business, which had taken the cash down. We had an onerous contract, which serves our cash. But I’ve put the current cash figures in this presentation. That $450 million we got in the United States is a very front-ended load — front-end loaded cash positive contract, yes.

So right now in the bank account $396 million. We’ve gone from worrying about things are getting tight. We’ve got an onerous contract to our CFO, Christian worrying about what interest rate he can get on the cash we’ve got deposited in the bank.

So a big turnaround for us. It’s taken a bit of pressure off the immediate need for CapEx for final assembly too that we’ve been talking about for the last 18 months or 2 years. But again, we’ve got some good news on that on our way forward. So I’m pleased with where the financials are and where we’re going, and we should have turned that corner and just continue to grow.

What are these ships that we’ve looked at do in terms of bill generations and dates. If you’re a financial analyst and you want to go and build a model, this is absolutely in there to help you put your numbers in the right years. But for me, when I look at this, I look at the top and programs that are going on past 2034. So that longevity, that certainty we’re putting into the business allows us to attract people, train them, retain them with the work that we’ve got and really just continue to grow that business.

So you see what that looks like in the United States, and we’ve done the same thing with the Australian pipeline as well. Some of these things on contract and then down the bottom end of the slide, some of these opportunities. But again, look at the time lines. Historically, we’ve stood here and talked about, we can see 18 months look ahead. And having we done a great job keeping that going for 37 years, but winning some of these progress that put 10 years of certainty in the business is a very, very exciting place to be.

So what does that look like in terms of numbers, investment proposition? Share price has recovered recently, Fantastic. I think that’s where we closed last night. You’ll see from the EBIT, we had the disaster in FY ’23 with the onerous contract. You can see that turning a corner, and you can see that continuing to grow into the future. Order book absolutely stand out and puts the certainty in the business. And then that revenue growth, a representative line in there of how the revenue is going to grow in line with the programs that we’ve already won and what’s been announced to come in Australia.

So I think from an investment perspective, also still a great opportunity. So guidance, whenever we did full year results, we promised we put our guidance at the AGM, and here we are. So we’re guiding to an EBIT of $80 million this year. So you can see an increase again on last year. Consistent as we continue to get into the execution phase of these contracts. We’re optimistic that we’ll continue to grow the EBIT back to where it has been and indeed straight through that and years and years of growth ahead of us.

There’s always some complications in terms of the levers we’re pulling, what we’re wrestling with to try and pin the tail on the donkey and give you an exact number. And we’ve put some of those up there just to help you understand some of the things that we’re dealing with on a daily basis to try and make sure that we can manage the risks and the opportunities and come out and hit our numbers and keep everybody happy.

But I think that’s a number that’s very much in line with analyst estimates. And I think it should be well received today that we’re confident that we can deliver in line with it. So let’s have a bit of a run through some of the things that are going on in the business. I’m not going to go through every project, but I want to talk about things that are strategically important.

Yes. So in Australia, we are very committed to partnering with the Commonwealth with Navy, with Border Force. We’ve had an amazing track record of what we’ve delivered in the last few years, even during COVID, we kept the shipyard open. We continued delivering ships, and you look at the number of ships that are out there, there was very much a theme of Austal deliveries on time and on budget we can be relied upon by our customers. So really amazing delivery schedule from the guys here in Australia and also working with a whole lot of Australian partners in the supply chain.

Us winning a prime contract is great for a lot of people outside Austal. If we look at what’s happening in the U.S., so there have been a lot of announcements recently, and I wanted to put this in here just to try and help you understand exactly what’s happening. So if I use the pointer, this is kind of the existing shipyard as it is today. That’s the steel facility that we built a couple of years ago. So we cut metal here and we run down a production line, where modules, big sections of ship come out. They go to the completion sheds, final assembly sheds where the modules are joined together, turned into ships and we launch them out the front into the river, take them around to the vessel completion yard where we commission them and take them out into the Gulf of Mexico on sea trials.

So 2 announcements recently. We have been talking about final assembly 2. So this is all fine for aluminum ships, which are considerably lighter than steel. Steel obviously being 3x as dense as aluminum, it all weighs a lot more. And you’ll notice that the interstate disappears. Well, actually, it goes through a tunnel here under the river. And the tunnel can’t take the load of the major modules that we want to bring in. So we need a new vessel completion site for steel ships. We need heavier floor loading. We need bigger cranage.

And we actually want to build a ship lift out the front. So we can either launch ships or if we want to do maintenance on ships, we’ve got the ability to bring them up and do work on the ships. These are the 3 sheds that we want to build. And those are big enough for everything we foresee in the future. So not just the work we’ve won today, like the offshore patrol cutter or the T-AGOS surveillance vessel. Those will be big enough for frigate if they want to go for a second source or some of the bigger logistics ships that we see coming in the future.

So tremendous opportunity for us and a very exciting time that we’ve received a letter of support from an Australian government financing agency and for up to 50% of that $300 million, that should help us underpin the rest of the lending syndicate to allow us to come out in the near future and finalize exactly how we’re going to fund the building of that facility. So the other announcements that came a couple of weeks ago, again, very exciting. 2 module — 2 announcements back to back. One of them was the USD 450 million. So a piece of land that we bought a year ago, 2 years ago, in preparation for this.

This has been an awful lot of work in progress for our teams to try and secure this but a big purpose-built module facility that could build up to 20 submarine modules at any time. We will probably have 1,000 people working in that building, and you guys can do the calculations on revenue versus people, but that will be in the hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue that we add to the business going forward.

And that has been backed up with commitment from Electric Boat to put the work to us. And then the second announcement was around the submarine industrial based investment in the Alabama shipyard that was next door to us. The Navy have invested through us into a fund that has bought that shipyard with a view that they would like to develop it and it provides a great opportunity for future expansion and growth. Again, we’re not going to win or lose on that through the financial system, but it gives us first run of refusal on opportunities for the future. So Navy really backing us again to say, hey, we think you’re going places when you run out of space in a few years’ time, we’ve already secured the facility that you’re going to grow into.

So a very, very exciting opportunity. And I hope that helps to explain what the site’s going to look like in Mobile, Alabama in the next couple of years. Support business, I talked about. You can see the trend graph that we’re on track to hit our $500 million, maybe slightly ahead of it. Real focus to get the floating dock, which is a huge dock that we had built and delivered to San Diego. We’re now working with the various agencies, environmental agencies to make sure we can commission that dock and really take a big step forward in terms of the revenue we can generate in San Diego.

But recognizing we do this in other places as well, whether it’s supporting the U.S. Navy out of Singapore, whether it’s supporting Trinidad for the Capes and ferry that we delivered a few years ago or whether it’s here in Australia with the yards in Brisbane cans and Darwin, and that growing number of patrol boats being delivered, that will be stationed out in Cairns in the future, support is very much a great part of our business and one that has opportunity for growth as well.

So a few years ago, we talked about submarine modules and people kind of scratched their heads and said, what’s that? What can that be for the business? We spent the last 2 years working very hard on that. And hopefully now, we’ve been able to communicate just how lucrative that’s going to be and what a great deal that is for Austal.

Well, in the United States, we’ve been funded to set up an additive manufacturing center of excellence that Richard talked about in his speech. That is really going to support the U.S. Navy and their desire to get parts that are a traditionally forged a cast, built in a much more modern, much more reliable, much quicker fashion. And Austal’s right at the center of it. So we manage that facility.

We understand the IP. Arguably, we’re learning the recipes of multiple materials that are cold spread or additive manufactured or laser cut, their properties and the heat treatment. And every day, we’re delivering more and more components. We’ve delivered over 100 components — now 100 different components as part of this program to start delivering for the United States Navy.

Richard talked about AUKUS and Pillar 2 of AUKUS, which is more focused on the technology and things like that. I think this is a prime example of AUKUS in action. We’ve been funded by the United States Navy. We’re doing the development work. We’re proving the products. That is very easy for us to replicate that capability here in Australia. And imagine if the United States Navy needed a part for a U.S. submarine that is under maintenance here in Paris as per Richard Marles’ announcement last week and the submarine maintenance coming.

While someone in Austal can receive an order in the United States, press a button, send the recipe down the tube that pops out on a 3D printing machine right here, and we can walk out the door and deliver the part to the United States Navy. So just a bit of a teaser to get you excited about what the future looks like and where we’re going, but another great opportunity that I wanted to talk about. And I’ll link that with things autonomy. So in the U.S., we’ve still delivered the largest autonomous ship in the U.S. Navy, the EPF 13. And here in Australia, we took the patrol boat autonomous or sentinel, as we call it, the old Armadale that we bought, converted, it was able to drive itself to Geraldton and being controlled right out of the Henderson office. And we’ll have a little look at a video on that later on.

But that’s got to be a good opportunity for the future. And this is Austal demonstrating whether it’s United States or whether it’s Australia. We are autonomous capable. We understand the technology and we can absolutely do it. So I think we’re doing a good job at focusing on what we’ve got to deliver today and execute the contracts we’ve got.

And we’ve got half an eye in the future about where all the growth is going to come from. So if I talk about — just to summarize things as I see it, as we’ve gone through, the record order book in the U.S. and what’s coming in Australia puts us in a great place. Positive momentum with the announcement on the Henderson precinct. I’m pretty pleased that the government while it was frustrating for a while, we did a defense strategic review, and that took a bit longer and then we weren’t certain on the output and then we did a fleet review.

Well, to be fair, and they said, this is what we’re going to do. And every announcement is consistent with they said they’re going to do. So in my mind, they are delivering on their commitments and long may it continue because we’ve had many years of uncertainty, and this is putting a whole lot of certainty into the system very, very exciting time. And our underlying business is performing pretty well. You can see that from the numbers, the growth in the EBIT. Still a couple of challenges out there.

We want to finalize the funding for the facilities in the U.S. that we’re going to invest in. We’ve still got the T-ATS program that we talked about last year. We need to resolve that with Navy. Great conversations happening. And I think based on how supportive they’ve been of Austal generally, it’s hard to imagine they’re going to stiff us on T-ATS issue.

So we’ll continue to work with that and do everything we can to get that resolved this year. The growth in Australasia, very exciting with the strategic shipbuilding agreement, the commercial orders that we’ve looked at. Support business going really well towards its targets and the floating dock there. The CapEx that’s happening, whether it’s funded by U.S. Navy, whether it’s funded by Austal, but we are setting that yard up to be probably the most modern, the best equipped shipyard in the United States, really, really exciting time.

We’re in that transition and the growth of people is going to be pretty exciting. It’s great that we’ll be able to grow both in the U.S. and here and provide longevity of jobs and revenue for the company. Still more opportunities. We talked about AUKUS, I’ve given you some examples through additive manufacturing, through autonomy. I think we’re only scratching the surface of AUKUS at the minute. The focus is still very much on the submarines and how they’re going to get those.

But the whole Pillar 2 side of AUKUS, I think Austal’s really well placed to try and grab that. Relationships are critically important. Whether it’s through tendering processes, whether it’s with customers that we’re building boats for, whether it’s boats in service, we are working very hard to build that relationship and be a reliable partner for the very long time.

And I think my summary is we have come through the last 3 years of transition, and we’re into the execution and growth phase. So very, very exciting time from my perspective. and I will leave you with a video showing you the autonomous patrol boat.

[Presentation]

Richard Spencer

Thank you, Paddy, for your comments. Truly is amazing. And I think what you’re witnessing here is just the tip of the iceberg. I now welcome any questions from the shareholders present relating to Paddy’s presentation, and so that everyone may hear you, could you please stand and we’ll deliver you microphone, state your name and ask your question.

Unknown Shareholder

I’ve got some queries and I really feel as if I’m — I’ll introduce myself. My name is Ann Pryor, and I’m a very long-term shareholder. I feel as if I’m going to stand here and rein on Paddy’s parade. There were some items in the financial statements that I really didn’t like and are red flags. So I’m going to put them out there. And through you, Mr. Chairman, ask somebody in finance to respond.

First of all, you were cash flow negative from operating activities, which is always a big red flag for me. Secondly, your trade and other payables were up by 88%, which could be explained. However, I’ll leave that to Mr. Greg. And I noticed that there’s a revolving credit facility that’s crept on to the balance sheet of nearly $40 million. And when I look to the further down, the trade and other receivables are up, and I think that nearly double from the previous year. The loss allowance is up by a factor of about 6x. I know it’s only a relatively small amount, but the trend is not a good look. That leads me to wonder if there’s a cash squeeze.

Richard Spencer

That’s very astute analysis. Paddy, would you like to address?

Patrick Gregg

Sure, sure. Thanks, guys. I’ll give it a go. And if I get it wrong, Christian will correct me. But I think they’re all really related to the same problem, and that’s the onerous contract on T-ATS. So we disclosed that to the market. While that contract remains onerous, it eats a lot of cash. So yes, a lot of the other programs generating great cash. But while our estimates are complete or in excess of the contract value, then we’re unable to claim that cash back from the United States Navy. And that’s all part of that request for accrual adjustment process that we are working with them at the minute to recover.

So that has a knock on to cash flow and how we’re paying our suppliers. So whereas we might have been very, very prompt in paying suppliers whenever we had a lot of cash. When we don’t have a lot of cash, we go and manage it appropriately. And I don’t mean we don’t pay people. I mean we might take the full length of time to pay them that we possibly can. And that gets compounded by the growing business.

So you see that the trade creditors and debtors, those things grow as the business is growing. So there is a relationship there that you can add those 2 things together and come up with an answer that says we have a cash problem. The only cash problem is the fact that we are funding the build of the T-ATS program in the United States at the minute. And that will change. I’m confident we will with fix that with the United States Navy.

And then if you want to consider the $450 million that we were awarded for the module manufacturing facility. It’s very convenient that, that is very front-end loaded in cash. And you saw the cash balance today as $396 million. So there absolutely is no cash issue in the business. We do need to resolve T-ATS. I think if you looked at the position with the supply chain at the minute, it is significantly improved on where it was at half year because we wanted to bring those supplier payments back in line with how we’ve done it traditionally rather than take it to the maximum we can.

And we put that focus on the smaller suppliers rather than the bigger suppliers because we know cash flow turnover is harder for those guys. So there’s a huge amount of work that goes on behind the scenes to make sure we manage cash in the business appropriately. But I’m not sat here with a concern that we’ve got a cash issue as a business.

Unknown Shareholder

My name is Neil. I actually have a request for the Board. Can you consider engaging the corporate communications specialist to take over communication for Austal. The reason for asking for that is, if you look at things like your website, it’s not a good look. It’s not professional. The presentation that we’ve just been through, if you look at that, it’s not a great presentation. There’s just lots and lots of words. People sitting here can’t read it. When you do announcements to the market, you are inconsistent in when you use price-sensitive announcements. So there’s been some discussion today about the fact that you’ve had issues with forward order books, particularly when the Asian expansion was underway.

And you think that when the announcements were made to the market, if you have been awarded a contract, you’d make it price sensitive. You don’t always do that. As you build the order book, you think you would be using that market announcement to say, “Hey, this is a contract we’ve got. But this is what it looks like now in Vietnam. And I’m just not seeing it. And I think you’re over burdening Paddy with too much to do, and you need was actually good at corporate communications to present the company more effectively in the marketplace. I think what’s happening at the moments hurting shareholders.

Patrick Gregg

Duly noted. Duly noted. We will take it for consideration.

John Campbell

Chairman, John Campbell. I’m representing the Australian Shareholders Association. I’ve got a question for you. As Chairman of Austal, you’re an American, presumably without a great deal of background in Australian corporate law. You’re located in the U.S. And I don’t know whether you’re located in Mobile, but quite probably not. And I just wonder how you managed to keep on top of things here at Henderson and around the globe? And also whether you’re briefed and requirements of corporate management in Australia?

Richard Spencer

Certainly. I spent 19 years on Wall Street as a banker, dealing with corporate law with great regularity. I’ve sat on 3 public boards, 1 New York Stock Exchange listed board. The fundamentals of law between Australia and the U.S. on the corporate basis are not that terribly different. When it comes to the regulations on the exchanges, I have my corporate attorney — my council here who was giving me tutelage on ASX regulations with the regularity after this meeting, so I feel fairly comfortable that I truly understand what is going on in the regulatory side over here.

John Campbell

Can I ask another one? The settlement you’ve done with the Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission was to set up a fund, I think, for shareholders to make claims with respect to losses that were incurred because of the misreporting back in the 2013, ’15 period, whatever it was. Do you know how Australian shareholders are going to be able to access that? Is there a mechanism in place whereby they can line up to make a claim?

Richard Spencer

That’s a very timely question. We believe this has been done before. So it is under construction as we speak. Out of our control, but that’s going to be the SEC DOJ probably in concert with the regulatory — regulators here.

If there are no further questions, we’ll move on. I now move to the next item on the agenda, which is the directors’ report and the financial statements of the company. The annual financial statements of the company for the year ended 30 June 2024, together with the director’s report and the auditor’s report in respect of those documents were released on the ASX on 30 August 2024 and were sent to shareholders who so requested. We also have copies of these at the meeting, should any shareholder require a copy. There is no voting on this item of business. Instead, shareholders have the opportunity to ask questions about these reports. Are there any questions from the floor, from the shareholders? There being no question, we’ll proceed — sorry.

Unknown Shareholder

Sorry. Just in relation to your sustainability report, we noticed it comes out some weeks after the annual report. We prefer representing retailers to shareholders. And we have the opportunity to review that at the same time as we review the annual report because the two things are linked in, in terms of investors’ perceptions about their investment and continuing with it. So we’d ask if it’s possible that the publication of the two documents is synonymous at the same time.

Richard Spencer

Duly noted, and I think you’ll see corrections next year. Any further questions? All resolutions will be put to a poll. However, there will be an opportunity to ask questions relating to each of the resolutions I’m going to go through before the poll is taken. Resolution #1 is for the adoption of the remuneration report. The resolution is set out on the screen next to me, and I’ll give you a moment to read it. I note that a vote on this resolution is not binding on the company. The proxies shown on the slide beside me have been received in respect of the resolution. Although I’m personally excluded from voting on this resolution, I will vote the undirected proxies I hold in favor of the resolution.

Are there any questions relating to this resolution? Thank you. As mentioned, we’ll proceed to a poll on all resolutions. I will ask a representative from the company’s share registry to conduct the poll at the end of the meeting after all resolutions have been considered.

We will now move to Resolution 2. Resolution 2 concerns the election of Kathryn Toohey as a director. The resolution is set out on the screen next to me, and I’ll give you a chance to read it. I and the rest of the Board recommend Kathryn’s election as a Director of Austal. I will vote the undirected proxies in favor of this resolution. Are there any questions on the resolution? Thank you.

Resolution #3 concerns my own election, and therefore, I’ll hand it over to Paddy Gregg to chair the meeting for this item.

Patrick Gregg

The resolution is set out on the screen next to me, and I’ll give you a chance to read it. I and rest of the Board recommend Richard’s election as a director of Austal. I will vote the undirected proxies in favor of the resolution. Are there any questions relating to the resolution? Thank you. I will hand back to Richard as we now move to Resolution 4.

Richard Spencer

Thank you, Paddy. Resolution 4 concerns the election of Brent Cubis as a director. The resolution is set out on the screen next to me. I and the rest of the Board recommend Brent’s reelection as a Director of Austal. I will vote the undirected proxies in favor of the resolution. Are there any questions related to this resolution? Thank you.

We’ll now move to Resolution 5. Resolutions 5, 6, 7 and 8 deal with the issue of share rights to some of the nonexecutive directors of Austal. At the last 4 annual general meetings, shareholders approved the grants of share rights to nonexecutive directors so that participating directors will be remunerated through a combination of 75% cash and 25% share rights. Resolutions 5, 6, 7 and 8 seeks shareholder approvals to continue the grant of share rights for 12 months following this Annual General Meeting.

Resolution 5 concerns the approval of the issue of shares to Lee Goddard. I and the rest of the Board recommend the approval of the share rights. I will vote the undirected proxies in favor of the resolution. Are there any questions relating to this resolution? Thank you.

Now we’ll move to Resolution 6. Six concerns the approval of the issue of share rights to Kathryn Toohey. I and the rest of the Board recommend the approval of issues of share rights to Kath. I will vote the undirected proxies in favor of the resolution. Are there any questions? Thank you.

We’ll now move to Resolution #7. Resolution 7 concerns the approval of the issue of share rights to Brent Cubis. I and the rest of the Board recommend the approval of the issues of share rights to Brent. I will vote the undirected proxies in favor of the resolution. Are there any questions related to this resolution? Thank you.

We’ll now move to Resolution 8. Resolution 8 concerns the approval of share — issue of share rights to Sarah Adam-Gedge. I and the rest of the Board recommend the approval of the issue of share rights to Sarah. I will vote the undirected proxies in favor of the resolution. Are there any questions as it relates to this resolution? Thank you.

We’ll now move to resolution 9. Resolution 9 concerns the approval to issue LTI rights Mr. Patrick Gregg. The resolution is set out on the screen next to me. I and the rest of the Board recommend voting in favor of the resolution. I will vote the undirected proxies in favor of the resolution. Are there any questions relating to this resolution? Thank you.

We’ll now move to Resolution 10. Resolution 10 concerns the approval to issue STI rights to Mr. Patrick Gregg. The resolution is set out on the screen next to me. I and the rest of the Board recommend voting in favor of the resolution. I will vote the undirected proxies in favor of the resolution. Are there any questions relating to this resolution? Thank you.

I now direct that the poll will be held in relation to each of the resolutions. Lindell Weston from Link Market Services Limited, Austal’s share registry provider, will conduct the poll. I retain the right to make all final decisions on who may vote. The votes cast and the declaration of the results of the poll. I ask Lindell to come forward to announce the directions in relation to the conduct of the poll procedure.

Unknown Attendee

Thank you. The persons entitled to vote on this poll are all shareholders, representatives and attorneys of shareholders and proxy holders who hold yellow voting cards. If you are here in more than one of those capacities, you will have been issued with as many yellow voting cards as you have separate capacities. On this card, you will find a series of boxes for voting. Please indicate on your card how you wish to vote by ticking or marking the appropriate square for all resolutions 1 through 10. You must mark either for or against for your vote to count. If you wish to cast some of your votes for the resolution and some of your votes against the resolution, write the amount of shares in each box.

The sum of votes cast for or against the resolution must not exceed your voting entitlement. If you are a proxy holder, a summary of the votes to which you are entitled has been provided with the yellow voting card. If you only have directed votes, you need to do nothing other than submit the voting card. Votes at your discretion are open votes as shown in the column titled Votes Open on your proxy summary and can be cast at your discretion by marking either the for or against box. Once you’ve finished marking your card, please place it in one of the ballot boxes circulating the room. If there are any aspects regarding the voting on which you are uncertain, please do not hesitate to ask the Link staff who will be circulating the room. Have — sorry, I got that Paddy. I’ll hand back to you.

[Voting]

Richard Spencer

I believe that those persons who wish to vote in the poll have now done so. If there’s anyone present who has not yet had their completed paper or ballot collected by Link, please raise your hand. If all persons have now voted, I declare the poll closed. I do not intend to keep the meeting open while the poll results are collected. The results of the poll will be announced to the ASX as required. There being no further business, I now declare the meeting closed, and thank you for your attendance. I’d also like to invite you all to join us for tea and refreshments in the back here, and also been advised that we must vacate the presence of the property by 5:00 p.m. Thank you all very much for participating.

 

 


Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Austal Limited Analyst Call 01/11/24

Nuix Analyst Call 13/11/24

Nuix Analyst Call 13/11/24

Otherwise click HERE for a 10 point summary.

https://www.nuix.com/

Robert Mactier

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Nuix 2024 Annual General Meeting. My name is Rob Mactier, and I’m Nuix’ Chairman. And I begin today by acknowledging the Gadigal people of the Eora Nation, traditional custodians of the land on which we meet today and pay my respects to their elders, past and present. And I extend that respect to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples here today. It is now just after 10:00 a.m., the appointed time for the holding of the meeting, and I’m advised that the necessary quorum is present. I therefore declare the Annual General Meeting open. Before we proceed with the meeting, a couple of quick housekeeping points. Could mobile phones, please be turned to silent. Recording devices and cameras must not be used. And in the event of an emergency, please head for the exit doors or follow the instructions of staff.

Today, I’m joined by my fellow directors. And here in the room from your left to right, Nuix’s General Counsel and Company Secretary, Ilona Meyer; Jacquie Korhonen, who’s the Chair of our Remuneration and Nominations Committee; Nuix’s Group CEO, Jonathan Rubinsztein; Nuix’s Deputy Chair, Jeff Bleich; Sara Watts; and Alan Cameron AO. And in addition, dialing in from offshore is Sir lain Lobban, who is based in the U.K. but in Singapore today. I hope you can hear us, Sir lain. And joining us here in the audience today are several members of Nuix’s leadership team as well as Trent Duvall, representing our auditor, KPMG. The prepared AGM commentary and the presentation for today’s meeting have been released to the ASX. Today’s meeting utilizes hybrid technology through the Link online platform. This enables shareholders to participate in the meeting irrespective of where they are in the world, and I warmly welcome those of you participating online.

The agenda for today’s meeting is as follows: Firstly, I will present my formal address. And following that, Jonathan Rubinsztein, Nuix’s Group CEO, will present his review of Nuix’s activity for FY ’24 and some brief update commentary. And we will then proceed with the formal business of the meeting. And following conclusion of the meeting, I invite those shareholders here today to join me and my fellow directors for light refreshments. It is my privilege to serve as the Non-Executive Chairman of Nuix. And I would like to thank you for joining us today in person and online and for your interest in Nuix, a great Australian tech company. Nuix is a leader in the data intelligence landscape due to its innovative technology and commitment to delivering powerful insights. What makes Nuix special is its ability to process vast amounts of structured and unstructured data rapidly and accurately, turning it into actionable intelligence for a broad range of organizations and for a broad range of uses.

This expertise is driven by the powerful capabilities of the Nuix engine to uncover hidden patterns and connections within data. Moreover, Nuix’s dedication to integrity and ethical practices underpins our mission to be a force for good. This commitment fosters trust among customers, stakeholders, enhancing collaboration and ensuring that our technology is used responsibly. With a strong emphasis on innovation, Nuix is continuously evolving to meet the dynamic needs of our customers. It’s this unique combination of advanced technology, customer centricity and ethical responsibility that makes Nuix such a unique and valuable partner for organizations navigating the complexities of exponential data growth. FY ’24 was a period of significant progress, achievement and optimism for our company. We experienced solid growth, strategic successes and a reaffirmed commitment to excellence and innovation. Pleasingly for all, this has been evidenced by a material improvement in our share price. And shortly, your CEO, Jonathan, will review the FY ’24 results and update you on the FY ’25 outlook.

The 2024 financial year saw substantial growth in annualized contract value and statutory revenue. This growth underscores the demand for our solutions in a rapidly evolving market characterized by the exponential growth of data creation. Combined with a careful and considered focus on costs, this revenue growth led to very strong increases in both underlying and statutory EBITDA for the year. Strategically, a significant highlight of the year was the launch of our new unified platform, Nuix Neo, along with 3 related use case solutions. This platform represents a fundamental shift in our customer offering, delivering notably efficiency and usability benefits. Our growth trajectory is supported by a solid financial position bolstered by improved cash generation throughout the year. And with a stronger cash balance, an undrawn debt facility and a significant increase in our equity market valuation, Nuix is well equipped to capitalize on our growth opportunity.

From a personal perspective, a key highlight this year was my first visit to our operations in the United States, a market that accounts for over half of Nuix’s ACV. This visit provided invaluable insights into our operations, market position and the opportunities that lie ahead in the United States. Engaging directly with our teams and the customers in the U.S. reinforce my confidence in our strategic direction and our ability to execute our plans effectively. And although occurring after the end of the financial year, another key highlight was the series of accelerate customer events held in September and October in Sydney, London and Nashville. These events are an important and exciting way to showcase our technology and our talented people. The level of interest and enthusiasm from our customers and other stakeholders was very evident, which brings me to the people of Nuix. One of the most exciting aspects of my involvement with Nuix is witnessing the energy and enthusiasm of our staff, including our executive leadership team.

Led by your CEO, Jonathan, their dedication, vision and strategic acumen have been instrumental in our recent growth. The commitment of the Nuix team to innovation and excellent fosters a dynamic environment that resonates throughout the organization. As announced in May, Chad Barton, Nuix’s Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer, stepped down at the end of August following the release of the FY ’24 results. Chad’s contributions to Nuix’s transformation were significant and valued, and I thank him for his dedication. And I now take this opportunity today to welcome Nuix’s new Chief Financial Officer, Peter McClelland, who joined Nuix last week. Peter is there in the front row, and I’m sure he’ll buy you a drink afterwards.

Peter’s extensive public company CFO experience and his financial and strategic expertise will further bolster our executive leadership. I would like to extend my sincere thanks to the Nuix staff, the ELT and also my fellow Board members. Your hard work, insights and commitment during the year have been the driving force behind our achievements. And in closing, I say thank you to you, our shareholders, for your continued support and belief in our vision. Nuix is an Australian tech company making an impact around the world. And we thank you for joining us on that journey. Together, we will continue to build on our successes and shape the future of Nuix.

And I would now like to invite Jonathan to address the meeting.

Jonathan Rubinsztein

Thank you, Rob, and good morning, everyone. FY ’24 marked a significant step forward for Nuix’s transformation. Building on the foundations laid down in the previous year, we are focused on executing on our strategy, which is accelerating the innovation [Technical Difficulty]. Today, I’d like to talk about the year in the context of our people, our products and our performance. Our people are the lifeblood of our business, constantly impressing me with their creativity and commitment. They are the fuel powering Nuix’s transformation and delivering innovations for our customers. And what’s exciting is that we are only getting started now. Our customers and our partners are also equally inspiring in the work that they do and in the way that they use Nuix technology to solve some of the world’s most complex data problems. Our recent Accelerate events in Sydney, London and Nashville were powerful reminders of the connections that we have with our customers and our partners. These events were instrumental in driving further interest in our technology road map and highlighting our commitment to innovating responsibly in line with our mission of being a force for good.

FY ’24 saw the launch of our unified platform, Nuix Neo, in line with our strategy. Nuix Neo is an AI-enriched single platform that helps customers identify, process and understand complex data in ways that are faster, easier and smarter. The Nuix Neo platform means that we can offer our customers a streamlined approach to our common use cases for our software utilizing tuned AI language models specific to each challenge. Further, Nuix Neo enables our customers to harness the power of our proprietary AI technology, making the process of understanding data more intelligent and incisive. Over the year, Nuix delivered on its product road map, releasing 3 use cases: data privacy, investigations and legal to our early adopters in the timetable articulated. To complete this ambitious product road map in 12 months is a real credit to our talented R&D team. The enormous contribution of our people, combined with the innovation in our products translated into performance. At the start of the financial year, we set ourselves ambitious strategic objectives relating to new product rollout and financial performance.

We met those strategic objectives and, in several cases, exceeded them. We said we would target around 10% ACV and stat revenue growth in constant currency. We exceeded that objective in ACV and by quite a significant margin in stat revenue. ACV at the end of the year came in at $211.5 million, a rise of 14% on the prior year. An important driver of ACV growth was a lift in net dollar retention, which rose to 112.9%, up 3.7 percentage points on the prior year. Stat revenue rose a pleasing 20.9% on the prior year to $220.6 million. We said we wanted to achieve a successful rollout of Nuix Neo and associated solutions to early adopters, which we also achieved. Nuix Neo contributed $12.1 million to ACV in FY ’24, its first year, representing about 45% of overall ACV growth for the year. We wanted to broaden our sales focus to drive further new business. And during the year, we saw good growth in component sales through new customers and new offerings with particular strength in Rampiva and Advantage.

And as I’ve mentioned, Nuix Neo sales to both new and existing customers were also a significant contributor to growth. We wanted to achieve operational leverage in the business by growing revenue faster than operating costs and operational leverage was evident in the strong EBITDA growth delivered over the year, with underlying EBITDA up 38.7% to $64.4 million and stat EBITDA up 60.2% to $55.9 million. And lastly, we said we wanted to be underlying cash flow positive for the full year, and we delivered underlying cash flow of $24.7 million, up 171% on the prior year. And not only that, we were also cash flow positive to the tune of $11.9 million, up from the negative $12.9 million in the prior year. These were ambitious but achievable targets that we set ourselves at the beginning of the year. I’m really proud of the hard work by the Nuix team to not only meet the strategic objectives we set, but in several cases, exceeding them significantly.

At the FY ’24 full year results in August, we flagged the following strategic targets for the full year FY ’25, targeting 15% ACV growth in constant currency, continued successful rollout of Nuix Neo, revenue growth to exceed operating cost growth, excluding nonoperational legal costs and being underlying cash flow positive for the full year. We continue to execute on our strategy, and I take the opportunity to reiterate these targets. Nuix’s sales are not linear over the course of the year, and our current expectations are that growth will be weighted towards the second half of the fiscal year. In closing, I want to acknowledge the hard work of the team who are driving this transformation. They are committed to the execution of the strategy with a particular focus on customer centricity. Thank you for your tremendous efforts over the year. I’d also like to extend my thanks to our fellow directors, along with all our stakeholders, including you, our shareholders. We are tremendously grateful for your support and look forward to delivering further innovation and growth. Thank you.

Robert Mactier

We now come to the exciting part of the meeting, the formal business. The Notice of Meeting dated 9th of October was circulated to shareholders, and I will take the notice as being read. Before moving to the various items and resolutions, I will now briefly outline procedures for today’s meeting. In accordance with the company’s constitution and as set out in the Notice of Meeting, we have determined that voting on each of the resolutions will be conducted by a poll. We adopted these procedures to ensure that the views of as many shareholders as possible are represented at the meeting, and I now declare the poll open. The results of the poll will be declared and released to the ASX later today. Only shareholders, proxy holders or appointed representatives are entitled to speak or vote at this meeting. Only shareholders who are entitled to vote at this meeting may cast a direct vote on a resolution. As Chair of the meeting and as detailed in the Notice of Meeting, I will vote, where authorized, all undirected proxies in favor of each resolution.

For those attending the meeting in person, you can cast your vote by filling out a paper voting card. And if you have any questions, please see a Link Market Services team member at the registration desk. For those shareholders participating in the meeting via the online platform, you can cast your direct vote using the electronic voting card that you received when you validated your registration. If you have any questions about casting your vote online, please refer to the online platform guide or call the number set out in the guide or on the screen in front of you. Steve Quee of Link Market Services is the returning officer for this meeting. And during the meeting, we will display on the presentation slides the number of direct proxy votes received prior to the meeting on each resolution. And as I said before, the final results will be released to the ASX as soon as they are available.

If we experience any technical issues today, a short recess or an adjournment may be required depending on the number of shareholders being affected. But we’re a great Australian tech company, so that won’t happen. If this occurs, I will advise you accordingly. And if you are attending the meeting in person, you would have been given an attendance card when you registered on arrival. If you have a yellow voting card, you are a voting shareholder, proxy holder or corporate representative and have chosen to vote using a paper voting card, and you are also entitled to speak at the meeting. If you have a blue card, you are a nonvoting shareholder. And while you’re entitled to ask questions and make comments, you are not entitled to vote at the meeting. And if you have a red card, you are a visitor and not entitled to speak or vote at this meeting. If anyone with a yellow or blue card wishes to speak, please raise your hand at the appropriate time and a microphone will be brought to you to ask your question. Please show your card and say clearly your name when asking your question.

For those who are participating via our online platform, you will be able to submit questions by registering as a shareholder or proxy holder and selecting the Ask a Question tab. I will consider the questions submitted online after I have taken questions from the floor, and we may aggregate questions if we receive multiple questions on the same topic. And out of fairness to everyone present, I ask that you limit your questions to one at a time and also restrict your questions and comments to the resolution being considered. And I reserve the right as Chair to rule questions not pertaining to the AGM as out of order. So item 1 relates to the financial statements and reports. The 2024 report contains the financial report, directors’ report and the independent auditor’s report and a copy of the annual report is available on the Nuix website and was also sent to those shareholders who requested it. The financial statements have been audited and approved by the directors. I will take the reports as received and read.

Prior to today’s meeting, we received a question in relation to the general strategic direction and financial strength. It was really 45 questions in one, but I will respond in general terms to say that the Board has endorsed the overarching strategy that has been outlined by Jonathan, and it’s particularly pleasing to see that our strategy is coming to fruition. The financial position of the company is very sound and noting a strong cash balance at the end of the financial year, the undrawn debt facility and the general lift in our equity market valuation. So I have every confidence in the position of the company, the opportunity in front of the company and the governance of the company. I would now like to invite any shareholders on the floor to ask questions or make comments about the management of the company or any other general matters. And ask the auditor any questions that you have about the conduct of the audit and the preparation and content of the auditor’s report. Please keep questions about specific resolutions until we consider that resolution. Are there any general questions at this time?

Unknown Shareholder

Thank you, both CEO and Chairman for your address. I’ve been a shareholder since day 1.

Robert Mactier

What is your name please?

Unknown Shareholder

So I’ve sort of gone through the travails. Is the Nuix Neo responsible for the turnaround and in finances in general sort of prosperity of Nuix at the moment? Or is it due to a lot of other things like when to recognize revenue, et cetera, because it’s been a bit of a ride over the last 4 years.

Robert Mactier

It has been a challenging ride. And a lot of that was created by external forces that were keen to denigrate this great Australian tech company. What we’ve done is we’ve hunkered down and we’re focused on what we can control, which is the performance of the business, the quality of our tech and the Nuix Neo platform that we’ve introduced is part of the evolution of the company and part of our growth path going forward. It’s not the sole reason for the turnaround. It’s one of the elements of the turnaround. But Jonathan and the ELT team have reinvigorated the company. And across many facets, the business is heading in the right direction. And we empathize with shareholders who’ve been through that ride, but we think you can look forward to the future with great conviction.

Unknown Shareholder

With regard to Nuix Neo, I don’t quite — is that just a more powerful engine? And does it set you up in the new world of generative AI with competitors, et cetera, who may want to enter this area?

Robert Mactier

I’m going to let your esteemed CEO respond to that because he’s the absolute expert.

Jonathan Rubinsztein

So Nuix Neo is a new platform. So we took a bunch of our components. We combined them together, and we built a platform that allows us to solve the same problem in a repeatable way. So we built 3 solutions. We built our data privacy solution, our forensic investigation solution and now our legal solution. And so your question is what has driven the transformation? It’s a combination of, as I said earlier, it is the people, the products, our go-to-market. So there’s been a massive shift in how we think about our strategy. To me, strategy is simple. It’s where to play and how to win. And so we thought about our strategy. We’ve thought about how we take our software to market in a slightly different way.

Our platform solves the same problem repeatably and our ability to innovate quickly in terms of the horizontal workflow and our customer centricity, we think our platform gives us that ability to do that more quickly. In terms of the generative AI, our platform actually, we’ve built in our platform what is called a deep learning framework. And we think that, that platform allows us to access generative AI technology much more easily. So being able to reach outside and take vectorized data, which is what generative AI is based on and being able to embed that into our platform gives us a massive advantage and a huge kind of new TAM that we can play in. Very happy to talk afterwards if you want more detail.

Robert Mactier

Do we have any questions on the online platform?

Steve Quee

Yes, we do. We have a question from Mr. Stephen Mayne, who asks, after a blizzard of post-IPO bad publicity, you really have turned things around from a share price point of view. Macquarie remains our largest shareholder with a 29% stake, which is currently worth $758 million. Macquarie’s history has been to sell out of equity positions such as Transurban, Boart Longyear, Sydney Airport and JB Hi-Fi. Are they a long-term holder? Who on the Board represents Macquarie? Who handles engagement with them? And do we treat them any differently to other shareholders? And are they one of our biggest customers?

Robert Mactier

Macquarie is indeed a very valued shareholder of the company. They’re a long-term shareholder of the company. I would never seek to comment on Macquarie’s intentions. That’s their business. They’re also a very valued customer of the business. They don’t get treated any differently to any other shareholder. We occasionally meet with them. The engagement with Macquarie is handled by Jonathan and myself. And what else have I missed?

Steve Quee

Are they one of our largest customers?

Robert Mactier

And they are one of our largest customers, yes. And Macquarie does not have a nominee on the Board. Mr. Dan Phillips was previously on the Board as Macquarie’s nominee, but as disclosed, he stepped down in August last year.

Steve Quee

We have a further question from Mr. Mayne. Thank you for offering shareholders a hybrid AGM today. I couldn’t find a copy of last year’s AGM webcast on your website, but there are copies of the results webcast going back to 2022. Out of respect for your 15,000 retail shareholders, more than 99% of whom won’t be attending or watching this AGM live. Could you please undertake to publish a full copy of the AGM webcast on the Investor Relations section of your website?

Robert Mactier

I’m sure I will work with Brett Dimon and Ilona Meyer, and we’ll make that happen.

Steve Quee

We have a further question from Mr. Mayne. Thanks to Jeff Bleich for making the trip down under to attend today’s AGM in person and for sticking with the company as Chair and now Deputy Chair through all the ups and downs of the past few years. Given Jeff’s expertise on U.S. politics, could he please share his perspectives on what the election of Donald Trump could mean for our business, particularly now that more than half of our revenues come from the U.S. market? And could the CEO also comment on broader U.S. regulatory issues in the big data and tech sector?

Jeffrey Bleich

Well, given my past power of prediction of American politics, I would not place any great faith in my comments on this. I do think that most likely, given that President-elect Trump, having served in office before and having already started to announce some of his key appointees, we’ll be able to hit the ground running when he comes in to government. I think that a lot of the people who he’s already named are very focused on the types of AI-driven solutions that Nuix provides and that we are unlikely, given that there has been no turbulence in the transition of power following this last election, I think it’s unlikely that we’re going to have any slowdown in government contracting and that a lot of the contracting could well be bids for which we are well qualified and I think would be competitive. So in terms of its impact on Nuix’s business, I don’t see any particular storm clouds and I actually see some potential positive opportunities, particularly for our U.S.-based business, given that he’s also looking to reduce corporate taxes for U.S.-based companies. I think with that, I’ll limit my comments to Nuix’s impact on Nuix and similarly situated businesses and not go any further.

Jonathan Rubinsztein

Our 3 solutions that we’ve got, we have a cyber breach data privacy solution. We have a forensic investigation solution, and we do legal — we have a full end-to-end EDRM solution. I guess my point is, in this world, those 3 solutions are becoming more and more important as the world gets slightly more complicated. And so cyber breach, forensic investigation and legal, I think, becomes, if you want, a tailwind for ourselves as the world gets complicated.

Steve Quee

There’s a final question from Mr. Mayne in relation to this item. There’s a lot of hype about AI, extraordinary amounts of big tech AI investment and talk of a bubble. Where do we sit on the AI continuum? Are we an AI-enabled stock? And how much of our resurgence can be put down to AI? Also, what level of engagement do we have with the big global AI players such as NVIDIA, Microsoft, OpenAI and Alphabet?

Robert Mactier

Jonathan, would you like to comment?

Jonathan Rubinsztein

So in terms of what we’ve done over the last 2.5 years, we actually acquired a business now almost 4 years ago out of Boston called Topos Labs. And I always joke that 4 years ago, most people could kind of just spell AI. And we’ve spent the last 3.5 years actually taking our natural language processing and embedding that within our Nuix Neo platform. So we’ve been spending almost 4 years doing that. It truly is part of the end-to-end platform that we’ve got, but it’s not only the NLP, it’s also — the Neo platform includes our automation product that we acquired, which was Rampiva. And then joining that together with our world-leading data processing engine means that we think at a platform level, Nuix Neo, which has AI embedded in it is truly a unique and proprietary AI technology that allows us to do what we do. And internally, we used Neo, the internal branding was doing things 10x better. So we truly believe that it’s not the sole reason why Neo is performing well, but it is key to the success. And certainly, when you think about what we do, we take massive data sets and we try to find causal or correlated insights and AI can just do that faster, smarter and easier, and it allows us really to do this as a repeatable platform. And so from our perspective, again, this is the start of that journey. And again, as an end-to-end platform, being able to use the vectorized data in the deep learning framework, we think also gives us a massive advantage.

Steve Quee

There are no further online questions.

Robert Mactier

With no further questions, I’ll now move to the next item. Item 2 and Resolution 1 is the company’s remuneration report. The remuneration report is contained within the 2024 annual report, which is available on the Nuix website. I will take the remuneration report as read. Further details about this resolution are also contained in the explanatory statement that accompanied the Notice of Meeting. This vote is advisory only and is not binding on the directors or the company. And noting that each of the directors has a personal interest in their own remuneration from the company, each of the directors recommends that shareholders vote in favor of adopting the remuneration report. Do we have any questions on this item here in the room? Are there any online questions?

Steve Quee

Yes. We have a question from Stephen Mayne. Which of the proxy advisers cover us? And did any recommend a vote against any of today’s resolutions, including this rem report item? If so, what reasons did they give? Finally, please disclose the proxies to the ASX with the formal addresses at next year’s AGM. And when disclosing the voting outcome to the ASX, please adopt scheme-like disclosure, including data on how many shareholders voted for and against each resolution. As a data-rich company, it would be respectful to let shareholders know their data on how they voted.

Robert Mactier

We are covered by — and particularly having reentered the 300 index, we are covered by a number of the proxy advisers. The proxy advisers, they provide reports to their subscribers. It’s not a public matter. There were some votes against some recommendations, but we believe that the position that we’ve taken and the disclosure that we’ve provided is very positive and should be supported by shareholders. In terms of our disclosure of the results of the meeting to the market, we will look at best market practice, and we’ll see what we can do.

Steve Quee

There are no further online questions.

Robert Mactier

As there are no further questions, proxy votes for this resolution are now shown on the screen. If you have not already submitted your vote for this resolution, please submit your vote now. Item 3 concerns the election of directors.

And at this point, I will ask Jeff Bleich, Nuix’s Deputy Chair, to chair the meeting while my reelection is being considered.

Jeffrey Bleich

Resolution 2 concerns the reelection of Rob Mactier as a director and as Chair. Rob’s background and experience is detailed in the notice of meeting, and it’s my pleasure to speak to the resolution that Rob be reelected to the Board of Nuix. Rob was appointed to the Board in October 2021 and to the role of Chair in February 2023. Throughout his time on the Board, Rob has exhibited unwavering commitment, exemplary leadership and a deep understanding of Nuix’s mission. He’s helped to navigate the company through both challenges and successes with a clear vision and a commitment to transparency and with a collaborative spirit. On the negatives, he’s too tall, and he has maddeningly exceeded the achievements of his predecessor. Notwithstanding those failings, I am confident that under Rob’s leadership, Nuix’s Board and its management can continue to work effectively to build on our successes and to drive the organization forward. I and my fellow directors are very, very pleased that Rob is standing for reelection today.

And I will now invite Rob to make a few comments of his own in support of his reelection.

Robert Mactier

Thank you, Jeff, for your very kind words, and I’m not sure that I should try to enhance upon your words, but I will nonetheless make some very brief comments. As Jeff said, I joined the Board in October 2021 at the height of the storm in golfing Nuix post its IPO. At the time, many people questioned my decision, but I had a belief that Nuix just needed to weather that storm. And once the storm had passed, it would be very evident to all that Nuix is an amazing Australian board tech company with great technology, great people, awesome customers, serious revenue and an incredible growth journey. As it turns out, my assessment was right. I’m delighted I joined the Board. I’m privileged to be the Chair, and I’m very happy that I’ve had the opportunity to play a small role in helping the real Nuix reemerge onto the world stage. And with the support of shareholders, I’m very keen to keep supporting Nuix on its upward journey. Thank you to our shareholders who have voted in favor of my reelection, and thank you to my fellow directors for their support during my tenure.

Jeffrey Bleich

The directors and Rob Mactier abstaining have unanimously recommended that shareholders vote in favor of this resolution. Do we have any questions on this resolution here in the room? Do we have any questions via the online platform?

Steve Quee

There are no online questions.

Jeffrey Bleich

As there are no further questions, proxy votes for this resolution are shown on the screen now. If you have not already submitted your vote for this resolution, please submit your vote now.

And with that, I will hand it back to Rob.

Robert Mactier

That brings us to Resolution 3, the reelection of Jacquie Korhonen. Jacquie’s background and experience is detailed in the Notice of Meeting, and it’s my pleasure to endorse Jacquie for reelection to the Board today. So Jacquie has been a wonderful addition to the Board. She joined the Board at the same time that I did during the height of the storm, and we’ve been in the bunker together. And in particular, Jacquie has led the Remuneration and Nomination Committee during that period. And she’s overseen material improvements in the way that we remunerate our people, incentivize our people and the results of that are starting to come through. In addition, we have, during that period, had some reasonably significant turnover in our ELT and across the broader group, which requires finding and onboarding senior executives, and Jacquie has played a very instrumental role in that. Also, Jacquie has a long history in the Australian tech scene. So she brings a lot of acumen to our strategic discussions around the Board table in terms of driving growth in the Australian and the global market. So it’s my absolute pleasure to endorse Jacquie.

But I’d invite Jacquie if she wanted to say a few words on her own behalf.

Jacqueline Korhonen

Thanks, Rob, for those kind words, and good morning, everyone. So as many of you know and you’ve just heard, I joined the Nuix Board in 2021 in what was undoubtedly a very challenging time for the company. And since then, it really has been my privilege to participate in and contribute to Nuix’s transformation. As Rob noticed, I’ve been the Chair of the Remuneration and Nominations Committee for the last 3 years. And in that role and in my broader Board responsibilities, I’ve had the opportunity to work both collaboratively and constructively with my fellow directors and with the extremely talented Nuix team. This includes working closely with our executive leadership team, but in particular, Nuix’s remarkable people and culture team. Together, we’ve driven significant changes in our rewards framework and better aligned our people to the goals of the organization. It’s been an incredibly rewarding thing to witness Nuix’s turnaround across financial metrics, technology advances and staff satisfaction. Nuix’s stature as an Australian tech success story, acting as a force for good in the world is only growing. With your support, I look forward to continuing to contribute in my way to Nuix’s success in the future. So thank you.

Robert Mactier

The directors, with Jacquie abstaining, unanimously recommend that shareholders vote in favor of this resolution. Do we have any questions on this resolution? Are there any online questions?

Steve Quee

There are no online questions.

Robert Mactier

As there are no further questions, proxy votes for this resolution are now shown on the screen. And if you have not already submitted your vote in favor of Jacquie, please do so now. Item 4 relates to the approval of the grant of performance rights to the CEO and Executive Director. Resolution 4 concerns the approval of FY ’24 STI performance rights to the CEO and Executive Director under the Nuix incentive plan. The directors, with Jonathan abstaining, unanimously recommend that shareholders vote in favor of this resolution. Do we have any questions on this resolution from the room? Are there any online questions?

Steve Quee

There are no online questions.

Robert Mactier

As there are no further questions, proxy votes for this resolution are shown on the screen. And if you have not already submitted your votes in favor, please — they don’t have to be in favor but submit your votes. For this resolution, please submit your votes now. I don’t want to direct the audience. Resolution 5 concerns the approval of FY ’25 LTI performance rights to the CEO and Executive Director under the Nuix incentive plan. The directors, with Jonathan abstaining, unanimously recommend that shareholders vote in favor of this resolution. Do we have any questions on this resolution from the room? Are there any online questions?

Steve Quee

Yes. We have a question from Stephen Mayne. Could the CEO summarize his past LTI grants as to whether they have vested or lapsed? Also, has he ever sold any ordinary shares in the company or bought any on market without relying on an incentive scheme to build his equity position in the company?

Jonathan Rubinsztein

There have been some shares that have vested from the LTI scheme. The second question was, have I ever bought? Yes, I have bought shares directly myself. And then have I ever sold any shares? No, I have not sold any shares.

Steve Quee

There are no further online questions.

Robert Mactier

As there are no further questions, proxy votes for this resolution are shown on the screen. If you have not already submitted your votes for this resolution, please submit your votes now. And I should have added, as I said, for all of these that the open votes will be directed in favor of all these resolutions at my direction. Item 5 and Resolution 6 relate to the increase in the remuneration pool for nonexecutive directors, as pool hard-working directors. All nonexecutive directors have abstained from making a recommendation to shareholders in relation to this resolution. And given they have a personal interest in this resolution, do we have any questions? Are there any online questions?

Steve Quee

There are no online questions.

Robert Mactier

As there are no further questions, proxy votes for this resolution are shown on the screen. And if you have not already submitted your votes for this resolution, please submit them now. And that brings us to the end of the meeting. Thank you for your attendance and participation today. The poll will close in 5 minutes. And for those of you who are present here today in person, please join myself and my fellow directors and the Nuix ELT team for refreshments outside the room. To those shareholders and visitors participating online, I also thank you for joining us, and I now declare the meeting closed.

 


Disclaimer: This information is provided purely for educational purposes. It takes no account of an individual’s personal financial circumstances and hence can in no way constitute financial advice. The above data may be subject to errors or inconsistencies for which the author takes no liability. It is imperative that all investors do their own research or if they need advice, seek it from a qualified financial adviser.

Nuix Analyst Call 13/11/24

https://www.nuix.com/